10 things to look for at Indian Wells

 

                                             (Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun) 

With the BNP Paribas Open (a.k.a. Indian Wells Open) already underway in Palm Springs, California, I thought I would share 10 things to look for in what many people dub the "Fifth Grand Slam." This is an ATP & WTA 1000 event.  Click here to check out the draws. Ok, let's get after it! 

#1. Can Jannik Sinner win his first Indian Wells title? Jannik Sinner is still in search of his first title at Indian Wells. After reaching the semifinals in 2023 and 2024, he did not play the event in 2025. This time, he comes in as the No. 2 ranked player in the world with No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz on the opposite side of the draw. At some point, Sinner is bound to win an Indian Wells title. The only question is when. After not reaching the Australian Open final, he should feel a bit of extra motivation coming into this event. Perhaps that extra fuel will make the difference. 

#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka win her first Indian Wells title? World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is also in search of her first Indian Wells title. She's a two-time finalist, but so far has not been able to get over the hump in the final. Also like Sinner, she should be coming in with an extra chip on her shoulder after not winning the Australian Open. A title at Indian Wells would be a nice message for Sabalenka to send to the rest of the WTA Tour that she's still the top hard court player in the world. 

#3. How deep of a run can Daniil Medvedev make? Coming in as the No. 11 ranked player in the world, Daniil Medvedev has never won Indian Wells before and his lone grand slam title at the 2021 US Open with each passing year is further and further in the rear view mirror. At 30 years of age, on paper he's a guy that should still be in the mix to win grand slams and big time tournaments. If he could make a deep run at Indian Wells to the semis or final, that would be massive for him. Heck, even a run to the quarterfinals would be nice for him. If you want to talk about a dark horse on the men's side for this tournament, I think Medvedev is your guy. 

#4. Can Coco Gauff win her first Indian Wells title? In case you aren't already catching onto my theme here, world No. 4 Coco Gauff is another player in search of her first Indian Wells title. She reached the semifinals back in 2024, but that is the furthest she has gone.  It'll be fun to see how deep she goes and whether or not she can go the distance. If she does, that would be a huge boon for her heading into the spring. 

#5. Can Jack Draper defend his title? The defending champion on the men's side is world No. 15 Jack Draper, who defeated Holger Rune in the final 6-2, 6-2.  While the odds are stacked against him given the depth of the field, Draper should have some confidence given what happened last year. World No. 3 Novak Djokovic is projected to be waiting for him in the Round of 16. If Draper could somehow upset Djokovic, anything could happen going forward. 

#6. Can Mirra Andreeva defend her title? On the women's side, world No. 8 Mirra Andreeva is the defending champion, defeating Sabalenka in the final 2-6, 6-4, 6-3. Andreeva was 17 years old at the time and became the youngest champion at the event since 1999. Given she defeated Sabalenka in the final last year, she should be feeling confident going into this year's tournament. It'll be fun to see what kind of tennis Andreeva plays and how much she threatens do defend her crown. 

#7. Can Novak Djokovic break Roger Federer's record? On the men's side, world No. 3 Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer each have a record five titles at Indian Wells. If Djokovic could win a sixth, he'd be all alone in first place. Given how important of a tournament Indian Wells is, holding the record would mean a lot to Djokovic. As for when he won his five titles, Djokovic won in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016. So, it's been a full decade since he won his last one. If Djokovic is able to get his sixth Indian Wells title 10 years later, what a headline that would be! 

#8. Can Elena Rybakina build on her Australian Open title to win at Indian Wells again? World No. 3 Elena Rybakina is coming in with some momentum having won the Australian Open earlier this year.  She also won Indian Wells back in 2023, defeating Sabalenka in the final 7-6, 6-4. She's won this tournament before and did so beating the best of the best. If Rybakina can find a way to win Indian Wells this year, she'll really be heading into the spring with a spring in her step. Pun intended! 

#9. Can Carlos Alcaraz build on his Australian Open title to win at Indian Wells? World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz won the Australian Open this year and also has two Indian Wells titles under his belt in 2023 and 2024. He should be feeling confident in his abilities to go the distance this year. What helps him out a bit is having Djokovic/Draper/Sinner on the other half the draw. The perks of being the top seed! In the Round of 16, Alcaraz should he advance would likely face No. 13 Casper Ruud, who he has a 5-1 record against.  Honestly, it will be a surprise if Alcaraz doesn't at least make the final. The draw really is pretty nice for him. 

#10. Can Iga Swiatek win a third Indian Wells title? World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is gunning for a third Indian Wells title.  She won it back in 2022 and 2024. Given her lone hard court grand slam title is at the 2022 US Open, it actually would be good for Swiatek to win this title if she has hopes of winning the US Open this year. Winning on hard court is still something she needs to get more comfortable doing, especially at the grand slam level. I'll be interested to see how she does in this event. 

Prediction: On the men's side, I'll roll with Novak Djokovic to come out on top. I think in three set matches, his stamina can hold up better and he'll have that extra motivation of surpassing Federer to win his sixth Indian Wells title. As for the women's side, I'll roll with Elena Rybakina. She just won the Australian Open and has won this event before. I think picking her to win the women's title is sound. 

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Alexander Zverev blows an opportunity at Indian Wells

 

                                             (Credit: Jay Calderon/The Desert Sun) 

This week, Alexander Zverev had a disappointing outing at Indian Wells, losing to Tallon Griekspoor in the 2nd round by a final score of 4-6, 7-6, 7-6. Zverev came in as the No. 2 player in the world and the No. 1 seed in the tournament due to world No.1 Jannik Sinner serving a suspension for doping. Zverev was my pick to win the tournament and so to see him flame out in the 2nd round is pretty disappointing. Granted, Griekspoor is ranked No. 43 in the world and made a nice run to the quarterfinals, but still. If you are Zverev you need to have a strong showing at Indian Wells and at least make the semifinals. 

In truth, this tournament was Zverev's to lose and he blew a massive opportunity to win his first Indian Wells title and 8th ATP 1000 title overall. Had he won this tournament, that would have really helped him as he looks to close the gap with Sinner in his quest to being No. 1 in the world. And further, Zverev is still in search of his first career grand slam title. A title at Indian Wells would have done a lot for his confidence in that department as well and would have been seen as a legit stepping stone towards that goal. 

Looking at his match against Griekspoor specifically, what really hurt Zverev was going 5/14 on break point opportunities. He had plenty of changes to break Griekspoor's serve and failed to do so. Credit to Griekspoor for fending off those breakpoints, but at the same time Zverev had so many chances to win this match and advance. That has to haunt Zverev more than anything. 

Fortunately for Zverev, the Miami Open starts next week, right after Indian Wells. That will give him a chance to redeem himself at another ATP 1000 event. How the Miami Open goes for Zverev will be really telling and a strong test of his mental resolve. I look forward to seeing how he performs. 

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10 things to look for at 2025 BNP Paribas Open | Indian Wells

 

                                             (Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images) 

The 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California is underway. I would like to provide my list of 10 things to look for at this year's event, which is often dubbed the 5th grand slam. To check out the draws, click here. 

#1. Can Taylor Fritz bounce back from his disappointing Australian Open? Taylor Fritz comes in as the No. 3 seed and No. 4 player in the world on the men's side. He did not have a particularly strong Australian Open as he went down in the 3rd round, meaning he needs to bounce back and not let that result linger. The good news for Fritz is he's won Indian Wells before back in 2022 and being from Southern California, he basically has home court advantage. If there's an event for Fritz to bounce back at, this is the one. How he does could be very telling for how the rest of his 2025 season will go. 

#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka win her first Indian Wells title and reestablish hard court dominance? Aryna Sabalenka comes in ranked No. 1 in the world and the top hard court player in the women's game. In this year's Australian Open, Sabalenka fell to Madison Keys in the final, unable to win her third straight Australian Open title and third straight hard court grand slam. Sabalenka seems fired up to win this event and remind the WTA tour that she's the best on the hard court surface. She also hasn't won this event before, reaching the final in 2023 where she lost to Elena Rybakina. So that's probably a big source of her motivation for winning. It'll be fun to see if she can go the distance. 

#3. Can Novak Djokovic prove he's still got it? I think there are some questions about whether or not Novak Djokovic still has what it takes to win more grand slams. Personally, I think he does, but it would be huge for him to win at Indian Wells just to give himself some momentum after losing in the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. Djokovic has won Indian Wells five times, so he knows what it takes to win it. But, he hasn't won since 2016. It would be pretty cool if he won a sixth Indian Wells title. That would break the tie he has with Roger Federer, who also won five Indian Wells titles (tied for most all-time). 

#4. Can Madison Keys build on her Australian Open success? Madison Keys won her first grand slam at the Australian Open earlier this year, knocking off Aryna Sabalenka. It'll be interesting to see how Keys does at Indian Wells. She comes in as the No. 5 seed and thus should be in the mix to win the tournament. That said, she has never won this tournament nor has she reached the final. If she were to win this, that would really be sending a message to the rest of the WTA. 

#5. Can Ben Shelton make a run? Ben Shelton is coming into this tournament with some momentum having reached the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. That was his second grand slam semifinal appearance (2023 US Open). He's the No. 11 seed in the tournament and shown an ability to get hot on the hard courts. If you want to talk a dark horse in this tournament to at least make a semifinal run, Shelton is absolutely a guy who could challenge. I look forward to seeing how this tournament goes for him. 

#6. Can Coco Gauff win her first Indian Wells title? Coco Gauff comes in as the No. 3 seed and thus a favorite to at least reach the semifinals. She lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year, which was a bit disappointing for her since she's trying to win multiple grand slams after winning her first grand slam at the 2023 US Open. She's won a couple of WTA 1000 titles, but an Indian Wells title still eludes her. She did reach the semifinals last year, so she's certainly knocking on the door. Perhaps this will be the year she breaks through. 

#7. Will Alexander Zverev back up his seed? Alexander Zverev is the No. 2 ranked player in the world, but with Jannik Sinner serving a suspension for doping, Zverev is the No. 1 seed in the tournament. The question is will it matter? The furthest Zverev has gone at Indian Wells is the quarterfinals last year. Perhaps this will be the year that finally changes. If he could win this tournament, that would be a huge boost to his confidence heading into Miami where he reached the final back in 2022. 

#8. Can Paula Badosa win her second Indian Wells title? Paula Badosa comes in as the No. 11 seed, fresh off a run to the semifinals of the Australian Open. She also won this event back in 2021, so she knows what it takes to win it all. If you want to pick a dark horse on the women's side, Paula Badosa would be a pretty good pick. Don't be surprised if she threatens to win it all this year. 

#9. Will we get another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? Carlos Alcaraz comes in as the No. 2 seed, ranked No. 3 in the world while Daniil Medvedev comes in as the No. 5 seed, ranked No. 6 in the world. The last two years, they've met in the final with Alcaraz getting the better of Medvedev. A big question coming into this year's tournament is will we see another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? They're both on opposite sides of the draw, so it's totally possible. If we do, will Alcaraz win his third straight Indian Wells title or will Medvedev break through? If not, who will knock these guys off? 

#10. Can Iga Świątek defend her title? Iga Świątek comes in as the No. 2 seed on the women's side, ranked No. 2 in the world. She's the defending champion at this event and has won it twice, so she knows how to get it done. If she does reach the final, odds are good Aryna Sabalenka will be there. All I can say is what a fun match that would be! If Świątek is to defend her title, she's certainly going to have to earn it. This won't be an easy draw. It never is at Indian Wells. 

Prediction: I'm going to say Alexander Zverev breaks through to win his first Indian Wells title on the men's side. If he doesn't win it this year, he probably never will. As for the women's side, I'm gonna roll with Coco Gauff. I expect her to play well and feed off the energy that will come with being the top ranked American. I look forward to seeing how the tournament goes and who ends up winning it all. 

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Will Masters Titles In Miami and Indian Wells get Novak Djokovic Back On Track?

                                                    (Image from: espn.go.com) 

It has been a while since Novak Djokovic last won a grand slam title, at least for his standards anyways. Djokovic's last grand slam title was the 2013 Australian Open, and since then he has failed to win a grand slam. During the course of that time,  Rafael Nadal once again defended his French Open crown and also won the US Open, Andy Murray finally won Wimbledon, and Stanislas Wawrinka came out of nowhere to win the Australian Open. With the resurgence of Nadal, the feel-good story of a Brit winning Wimbledon, and Stanislas Wawrinka's shocking success down under, it is easy for us to forget about Novak Djokovic. While we still are a ways away from the next grand slam (French Open), Novak Djokovic's recent success at the last two ATP World Tour Masters events in Indian Wells, CA and Key Biscayne, FL is his way of reminding the tennis world that he still is a force to be reckoned with.
     To win the BNP Paribas Masters at Indian Wells, Djokovic defeated Roger Federer in the final and to win the Sony Open at Key Biscayne, he defeated Rafael Nadal in the final. Those are two of the toughest opponents he has to beat all year, and for him to beat them in back-to-back events is sending a pretty strong message to the rest of the tour. Look, I'm in the minority when it comes to valuing tournaments not called "Grand Slams". I don't hold them to nearly as much value as other people do, but I do think the Masters events can be important for guys who are trying to find their groove again. For Djokovic, if he wants to get back to winning grand slams and win at least one in 2014, he has to start somewhere to build up his confidence, and winning both Masters titles at Key Biscayne and Indian Wells is a great start!

In my opinion, these two Masters titles is definitely something to take note of. I think that for him to win both events is a very encouraging sign for Djokovic and his fans that he is gearing up to go on another dominating run. While I don't see this translating into a French Open title or anything since these two events are on hard court, I do see these two Masters titles potentially translating into success at Wimbledon and the US Open. Obviously, if Novak Djokovic doesn't win a grand slam this year, these two titles will mean almost nothing, but if goes on to win a grand slam this year, I think it is more than reasonable to look back at these two Masters titles as the catalyst that got him back on track to winning more Grand Slams.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy 

Indian Wells Preview

                                                     (image from: usta.com)

The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, an ATP Masters 1000 event/WTA Premiere event kicks off this week, with Round 1 action already done. However, with none of the seeded players playing yet, there is still time for me to break down this tournament and give you some key things to look for over these next 10 days.

1. What Does Roger Federer's Win At Dubai Really Mean? 
Roger Federer is coming into Indian Wells having just won the title in Dubai, which included a win over Novak Djokovic. Naturally, Federer fans were ecstatic with his win over Djokovic, many saying "Fed's back!" and other over-the-top statements that any tried and true Federer fan would say. While I think the win over Djokovic is a good sign, I'm not at all convinced that it is an indicator that he will win another slam or something along those lines. However, what happens down in Indian Wells to Federer could give us a better sense of what that victory actually wins. If Federer were to win the event and beat Djokovic again, then we could maybe look back at the Dubai win over Djokovic as a spring board to launch Federer into a successful 2014 campaign. If Federer falters and either loses to Djokovic in the Final or loses in earlier rounds, then his success at Dubai will likely be interpreted as a nice week for Federer but nothing to use as a barometer for his future success.

2. Can Sabine Lisicki Get It Together On Hard Court? 

We all know Sabine Lisicki is a threat at Wimbledon, but she hasn't yet proven she is a threat to win a grand slam elsewhere. While winning this event isn't likely for her, I do think that Sabine Lisicki is a player who could take tremendous confidence with her for the rest of the season if she put forth a solid outing at Indian Wells. If she reaches the the Semis at this event, which is possible, she should like her odds at making a run at a slam not called Wimbledon later this year.

3. Will Stanislas Wawrinka Back Up His Australian Open Title? 

I don't mean to say this as any sort of implication that his title at the Australian Open wasn't legit, but I do think a win for Wawrinka at Indian Wells would give the rest of the ATP Tour a real scare going forward into the rest of the season. Winning at Indian Wells could do a lot for Stanislas Wawrinka to show that his title down under wasn't just the product of a great two weeks or Nadal's back, but rather the result of his fantastic play.

4. No Serena Williams Doesn't Mean There Isn't Anything To Be Learned On The Women's Draw

The Williams sisters once again boycott the event after being subject to racial prejudice at the event more than a decade ago. While the absence of the Williams sisters, specifically Serena is a letdown every year, don't think that this diminishes the achievements of whoever wins this event or that there isn't something to take away from these 10 days.

5. Watch For The Health Of Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal

With both Murray and Nadal battling back problems recently,  this event should give us a good sense of how both guys are feeling health wise. Hopefully both guys can feel healthy enough to contend and possibly win.

6. Maria Sharapova Needs To Win A Big Event And She Might As Well Start Here

Despite all her off the court success with Sugarpova and her love life with Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov, Maria Sharapova has struggled against the likes of Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka on the hard courts. Serena isn't playing for reasons previously explained, but Azarenka is, and if Sharapova could beat her in the process of winning this whole event, that would be really good for Sharapova.

7. Will Any Men Take Inspiration From Wawrinka? 

After seeing Stanislas Wawrinka win the Australian Open, there has to be a greater sense of hope among guys not listed in the "Big Four" that winning a grand slam is possible. While Indian Wells isn't a grand slam, it is the next best thing. It'll be interesting to see if guys like Del Potro, Tsonga, and Berdych take inspiration from Wawrinka and run the table to win the whole thing.

8. Petra Kvitova Needs A Wake Up Call

Ever since winning Wimbledon, Petra Kvitova has slowly receded into the background of the WTA tour and hasn't proven that she isn't a one slam wonder. She can't get rid of that reputation at Indian Wells of course, but a win at this event could propel her to success at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

9. Novak Djokovic Can't Really Do Much To Improve His Stock 

Some guys could do a lot to improve their stock and status at this event, but others can't. I don't really see a win at this event giving Djokovic a huge boost, and nor do I see him failing to win a crisis either. Novak has his eyes on Roland Garros, which is really his next big test. The Masters events leading up to Roland Garros will matter to Djokovic way more than Indian Wells.

10. Winning At Indian Wells Would Be Nice For Na Li, But It Won't Be A Big Deal If She Has  A Rough Outing 

Don't expect Na Li to struggle, but if she does, don't freak out and think the end for her is near. She just won the Australian Open and seems prime for a great 2014 regardless of what happens at Indian Wells. She can't do much to improve her stock at this event and her stock won't really go down too much if she struggles or gets bounced early.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy