2015 Wimbledon Preview

     Wimbledon starts Monday, June 29 at 7:00 AM EST on ESPN. In a few hours, the greatest tennis players in the world will begin their quest to win the most prestigious tournament in all of tennis. Don't get me wrong, all of the grand slams are prestigious, but Wimbledon has a special significance to it given its surface (grass) and its location in the United Kingdom, which is where tennis was born. When you win Wimbledon, you forever become tied to a rich history and legacy that no other tennis tournament in the world possesses.

     With that as an introduction, here is my preview of the third grand slam event of the season. Like all my other previews, I will list ten key things to look for. Enjoy!

#1. With David Ferrer out, Andy Murray should coast to the semifinals: Andy Murray, who is seeded 3rd in the gentlemen's draw, got a lucky break with David Ferrer withdrawing from the event due to an elbow injury. Ferrer, who was seeded 8th, was projected to meet Murray in the quarterfinals. With Ferrer now out, the toughest match Murray has en route to the semifinals is facing 10th seeded Rafael Nadal in the 4th round. Judging by how Nadal has been playing as of late, I have no reason to think Nadal will give Murray much trouble. Assuming Andy Murray doesn't blow up in one of his early matches, we can pretty much pencil him in to reach the semifinals.

#2. How will Lucie Safarova handle the pressure? Lucie Safarova reached the French Open final as the 13th overall seed, losing to Serena Williams in the final. As a result of her miraculous run, she is now seeded 6th in the ladies draw at Wimbledon with way more pressure and expectations than she had on her going into the French Open. It'll be interesting to see how Safarova responds and whether or not she can back up her strong performance at Roland Garros with a Wimbledon title. In order to do so, she'll probably have to beat Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals, Serena Williams in the semifinals, and Petra Kvitova in the final. That's a very tall order.

#3. Novak Djokovic needs to bounce back: Novak Djokovic needs to win Wimbledon. He needs it to reestablish himself as the best player in the world and he needs it to numb the pain from what happened in Paris. It's that simple.

#4. Venus Williams might be Serena Williams' biggest obstacle: While Petra Kvitova is the player who is favored to win the other half of the draw, Venus Williams might be Serena Williams' biggest obstacle. They are projected to face each other in the 4th round and Venus Williams' favorite surface is grass. If there is any place where Venus Williams can still give her younger sister a run for her money, it is at Wimbledon, a grand slam she has won five times.

#5. Roger Federer has a great chance of winning the title: Roger Federer is projected to face Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals and Andy Murray in the semifinals. Both players can certainly beat him, but neither of them are players who I would say should be favored, either. In addition, Novak Djokovic looks vulnerable despite being the #1 player in the world after seeing what happened at Roland Garros. I know that he's getting up there in age, but Roger Federer is still the #2 player in the world and he is playing at his favorite grand slam. He should be feeling very confident going into this tournament.

#6. Eugenie Bouchard needs to get back on track: Eugenie Bouchard has fallen outside of the top 10 and is seeded 12th. She is projected to face #8 seeded Ekaterina Makarova in the 4th round, which isn't too bad, but then she is projected to face #2 seeded Petra Kvitova in the quarterfinals, who has won Wimbledon twice. Bouchard needs to take this one match at a time, but if she can get herself back to the quarterfinals, she should feel good about her progress heading into the US Open.

#7.  How will Kei Nishikori's calf hold up? Kei Nishikori has been dealing with a calf injury, which he claims won't affect him for Wimbledon. However, there's no telling how Kei will feel after a couple of matches. How Kei Nishikori feels early on in the tournament will definitely be one of the things to keep an eye on. Especially since he is the #5 seed in the whole tournament.

#8. Look out for Sabine Lisicki: Don't let her 18th overall seeding fool you. Sabine Lisicki is a very dangerous player on grass and always a threat at Wimbledon. She's been to the semifinals twice and the finals once. Don't be surprised if she goes even further this year and wins the entire title.

#9. Look for Novak Djokovic to win the gentlemen's title: Even though he has had his ups and downs, Novak Djokovic is still the best player in the world. He has won Wimbledon twice and should be treated as the favorite to win the title. This really is his title to lose.

#10. Look for Serena Williams to win the ladies' title: Serena Williams is chasing history. She is looking to win the most grand slam titles of any woman in tennis history and she is looking to win a grand slam in a calendar year. She has a lot on the line historically and is playing the best tennis of her career. I expect her to deliver the goods and capture her 21st career grand slam title.

---Ben Parker: Follow me on twitter @atp_guy and like Facebook page ATP Guy Nation for tennis updates 

10 things we learned from the French Open

     The 2015 French Open has come to a close, but before I dive into my Wimbledon coverage, I want to take a look back on what we learned from the two weeks that were in Paris.

#1. Stanislas Wawrinka is a force to be reckoned with 
     Stanislas Wawrinka is now a two-time grand slam champion after his stunning four set victory over Novak Djokovic in Sunday's final. We have to treat him as a serious contender to win Wimbledon and the US Open after seeing the level of tennis that he is capable of playing.

#2. Serena Williams is the greatest female tennis player ever 
     If there were any doubts about where Serena Williams ranks among the greatest female tennis players, I think winning her 20th grand slam title on her least favorite surface proves she is the greatest female tennis player ever. Margaret Court has the most grand slam titles with 24, but she played in a much less competitive era. As for Steffi Graf's 22 grand slams, Michael Wilbon and others argue that her numbers are inflated because of Monica Seles getting stabbed.

     I don't want to go that far, but I will say that Serena Williams has dominated tennis in a much more competitive era and likely will pass Margaret Court just for good measure anyways. Once she surpasses Margaret Court, there will literally be no reason for Serena Williams haters to say she isn't the greatest.

#3. Novak Djokovic really let one slip away 
     I don't want to take anything away from Stanislas Wawrinka, but Novak Djokovic really blew an opportunity to capture a career slam. He defeated Rafael Nadal, the king of clay, and had the career slam right in front of him on a silver platter. If he doesn't end up winning the career slam, he will really look back on this tournament as a blown opportunity to join a very elite group of tennis players.

#4. Lucie Safarova has arrived 
     After turning pro in 2002, 28 year old Lucie Safarova finally reached a grand slam final at Roland Garros. In addition, she played Serena Williams really tough and had a 2-0 lead in the third set. Don't be surprised if Safarova makes a deep run at Wimbledon. She made the semis last year.

#5. Grigor Dimitrov was a major disappointment 
     If you read my preview for the French Open, you would know that I predicted that Grigor Dimitrov might have an early exit, but even I was surprised by his first round exit to Jack Sock. He was seeded 10th and certainly should have at least made it to the 4th round.

#6. American men's tennis looks promising 
     The American men had a nice showing at Roland Garros. Jack Sock made the 4th round before losing to Rafael Nadal and as for the Boys' singles, the final consisted of two Americans, Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz.

#7. Maria Sharapova's loss to Lucie Safarova wasn't so bad
     I picked Maria Sharapova to win the French Open, but she ended up losing in the 4th round to Lucie Safarova. Judging by how Safarova played after beating her, I think it's safe to say that Maria Sharapova shouldn't be all that discouraged by how things went for her. Safarova was clearly the #2 player in the entire tournament behind Serena Williams.

#8. Andy Murray should feel confident about his Roland Garros chances going forward 
     Andy Murray could be the next one to deny Novak Djokovic of a career slam at Roland Garros. Murray lost in four sets to Djokovic in the semifinals, but I think that his entire clay season should make him feel confident about next year. Andy Murray has to look at this as a process and things are definitely going in the right direction for him.

#9. Rafael Nadal is no longer invincible on clay 
     Did you really think I was not going to address Rafael Nadal, the king of clay? Rafael Nadal losing is without question the biggest story of the French Open. I don't think he is done winning grand slams or French Open titles, but it's safe to say his window is finally closing.

#10.  I don't know what to make of Roger Federer's performance 
     Roger Federer lost in straight sets to Stanislas Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. At the time, it looked like a bad loss, but in retrospect, maybe it wasn't such a bad loss. Federer may still have some grand slam titles left in him, but I don't see him winning another title at Roland Garros.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news 




   

2015 French Open Men's Final Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Stanislas Wawrinka

                                          (Credit: Frederic De Villamil. Click here for source)
   
     The 2015 French Open men's final between world #1 Novak Djokovic and world #9 Stanislas Wawrinka is on Sunday at 9:00 AM EST on NBC. Novak Djokovic comes into this match with impressive wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, while Stanislas Wawrinka has wins over Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic has had the harder path to the final while Wawrinka's half of the draw was relatively wide open.

     The fact that Djokovic has had the harder path isn't the reason to pick him to win this match. The reason to pick Djokovic to win has to do with his dominating 19-3 head-to-head record against Wawrinka (5-1 on clay). Looking at these stats makes one wonder whether or not Wawrinka even has a prayer of winning in a five set match against Djokovic in a grand slam, but history actually indicates that he does. The last four grand slam matches these guys have faced each other, they have gone to a fifth set and Wawrinka has won one of those matches 9-7 in the fifth set.

     As for the other three matches that Djokovic won, the final scores in the fifth set have been 6-0, 6-4, and 12-10. So, for the most part, these matches have gone down to the wire. The only thing to take note of is all four of these grand slam matches were either at the Australian Open or US Open, which are played on hard courts. It's hard to say what this indicates. Hard court is Djokovic's best surface, so it stands to reason that if Wawrinka can press Djokovic on his best surface at a grand slam, he can do it on clay as well. On the other hand, perhaps Wawrinka's best shot is on the hard court, which would mean that this match may not be nearly as close as their previous four grand slam encounters.

     What I can say for certain is that Djokovic should be favored to win this match, whether it is close or not. Even though Wawrinka has pressed Djokovic to a fifth set in their previous four grand slam encounters, his record in those matches is still 1-3, so at best we can say he has a 25% chance to win. Then, when you factor in the fact that Djokovic has beaten tougher players than Wawrinka to get to the final, it seems safe to say that Wawrinka has something closer to 15% odds of actually winning this match.

     What I really think makes this an uphill battle for Wawrinka is the fact that Novak Djokovic is playing for a career slam. The French Open has been the one grand slam that has eluded Novak Djokovic all these years and with the title practically on a silver platter for him to grab, it's hard to see Novak Djokovic letting this one go. The key for Wawrinka will be to win the first set. If Wawrinka can grab the opening set and put Djokovic in an 0-1 hole, odds are good the match goes to a fifth set, which means anything can happen. If on the other hand, Djokovic comes out and takes the first set, I don't really see any chance for Wawrinka unless Djokovic gets hurt.

     As for the fact that Djokovic played on Saturday to finish his match against Andy Murray, I don't really see that playing a factor in this match. Djokovic is in tip-top shape, so he won't be fatigued, and if anything it may help him to have played in the previous day. In essence, I don't really see anything going in Wawrinka's favor as we head into this match.

                                          (Credit: Tatiana. Click here for source) 
   
     In the women's final, I didn't give Lucie Safarova much of a chance against Serena Williams, but there were reasons to give her hope. Safarova played a competitive three set match and for a while looked like she could win before Serena Williams eventually pulled away. The same kind of result could happen in this match, but I don't see there being as much drama.

     If you were to ask me for a prediction of as to what happens tomorrow, I would say that Novak Djokovic wins in four sets rather easily. This isn't to take anything away from Wawrinka, but the fact of the matter is that Djokovic has dominated Wawrinka over the years and has a career slam on the line. Djokovic is going to come ready to win this match and the only thing Wawrinka can hope for is that he can play the match of his life and get some help from lady luck.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news 

2015 French Open Women's Final Preview: Serena Williams vs. Lucie Safarova

                 (Credit: Kate. Click here for a link to the source)

     The 2015 French Open Women's final is Saturday at 9:00 AM ET on NBC and it features one player who many are familiar with and another who few would have expected to still be standing. The familiar player is Serena Williams, who is #1 in the world and seeking her 20th grand slam title, while the underdog is Lucie Safarova, who came into this tournament ranked #13 in the world. 

     If the head-to-head series between these two players gives us any indication of what will happen in this match, we can assume that Serena Williams will win going away. Serena Williams has won all eight of her matches against Lucie Safarova while only dropping three sets. As Brad Gilbert likes to say, it's been "one way traffic" for Serena Williams. 

     Despite Serena's dominance against her, Safarova does have reason to maintain some hope. The biggest thing going in Safarova's favor is health. Serena Williams has been battling the flu and isn't at full strength. If Serena gets off to a slow start and isn't feeling well, Safarova will have a chance to pounce and pull off the upset. 

     Secondly, Serena Williams has dropped the first set in four of her six matches in the tournament. Safarova definitely has to like her odds of winning the first set given this recent trend and further, she has to feel like if she does get the first set, the odds that Serena is able to come back from a one set hole  for a fifth time are remote given that historically, Serena only wins half of the grand slam matches in which she drops the first set. 

     Third, Safarova defeated #2 ranked Maria Sharapova 7-6, 6-4 in the 4th round after Maria had won the French Open in 2014 and 2012. Maria Sharapova has been the best clay court player in the women's game over the last few years. Safarova has to believe that if she can beat Maria Sharapova on clay, she can beat Serena Williams on clay, too. Especially since clay is the one surface that Serena Williams has historically struggled on. 

     That all being said, I'm still picking Serena Williams to win this match in straight sets and capture her 20th career grand slam title. She is by far the best women's tennis player in the world and in my opinion the greatest female player ever. She dominates in a way that we've never seen any other woman dominate and there isn't much anybody can do. In addition, Serena's 8-0 record against Lucie Safarova speaks for itself. If Safarova hasn't beaten Serena in eight tries, why should we think the ninth time will be the charm?

     Plus, while Serena Williams has only reached the final at Roland Garros twice, her record in the final at Roland Garros is 2-0. What this indicates is that if you are going to beat Serena at Roland Garros, you have to beat her early in the tournament. The more matches Serena Williams wins at Roland Garros, the more confident she becomes. If Safarova were facing Serena in the 4th round or even the Quarterfinals, she would have a much better chance of winning. But because she is facing Serena in the final, her chances drop significantly. 

      

     

(Credit: Kate. Click here for a link)

     I don't want to diminish the things that Safarova has in her favor. She has plenty of reasons to feel confident in her ability to win this championship. It's just that when you are picking sides between a 19-time grand slam champion and a player who has never played in a grand slam final, you pick the 19-time grand slam champion every time. 

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news