The 2015 French Open men's final between world #1 Novak Djokovic and world #9 Stanislas Wawrinka is on Sunday at 9:00 AM EST on NBC. Novak Djokovic comes into this match with impressive wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, while Stanislas Wawrinka has wins over Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic has had the harder path to the final while Wawrinka's half of the draw was relatively wide open.
The fact that Djokovic has had the harder path isn't the reason to pick him to win this match. The reason to pick Djokovic to win has to do with his dominating 19-3 head-to-head record against Wawrinka (5-1 on clay). Looking at these stats makes one wonder whether or not Wawrinka even has a prayer of winning in a five set match against Djokovic in a grand slam, but history actually indicates that he does. The last four grand slam matches these guys have faced each other, they have gone to a fifth set and Wawrinka has won one of those matches 9-7 in the fifth set.
As for the other three matches that Djokovic won, the final scores in the fifth set have been 6-0, 6-4, and 12-10. So, for the most part, these matches have gone down to the wire. The only thing to take note of is all four of these grand slam matches were either at the Australian Open or US Open, which are played on hard courts. It's hard to say what this indicates. Hard court is Djokovic's best surface, so it stands to reason that if Wawrinka can press Djokovic on his best surface at a grand slam, he can do it on clay as well. On the other hand, perhaps Wawrinka's best shot is on the hard court, which would mean that this match may not be nearly as close as their previous four grand slam encounters.
What I can say for certain is that Djokovic should be favored to win this match, whether it is close or not. Even though Wawrinka has pressed Djokovic to a fifth set in their previous four grand slam encounters, his record in those matches is still 1-3, so at best we can say he has a 25% chance to win. Then, when you factor in the fact that Djokovic has beaten tougher players than Wawrinka to get to the final, it seems safe to say that Wawrinka has something closer to 15% odds of actually winning this match.
What I really think makes this an uphill battle for Wawrinka is the fact that Novak Djokovic is playing for a career slam. The French Open has been the one grand slam that has eluded Novak Djokovic all these years and with the title practically on a silver platter for him to grab, it's hard to see Novak Djokovic letting this one go. The key for Wawrinka will be to win the first set. If Wawrinka can grab the opening set and put Djokovic in an 0-1 hole, odds are good the match goes to a fifth set, which means anything can happen. If on the other hand, Djokovic comes out and takes the first set, I don't really see any chance for Wawrinka unless Djokovic gets hurt.
As for the fact that Djokovic played on Saturday to finish his match against Andy Murray, I don't really see that playing a factor in this match. Djokovic is in tip-top shape, so he won't be fatigued, and if anything it may help him to have played in the previous day. In essence, I don't really see anything going in Wawrinka's favor as we head into this match.
In the women's final, I didn't give Lucie Safarova much of a chance against Serena Williams, but there were reasons to give her hope. Safarova played a competitive three set match and for a while looked like she could win before Serena Williams eventually pulled away. The same kind of result could happen in this match, but I don't see there being as much drama.
If you were to ask me for a prediction of as to what happens tomorrow, I would say that Novak Djokovic wins in four sets rather easily. This isn't to take anything away from Wawrinka, but the fact of the matter is that Djokovic has dominated Wawrinka over the years and has a career slam on the line. Djokovic is going to come ready to win this match and the only thing Wawrinka can hope for is that he can play the match of his life and get some help from lady luck.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news
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