2014 Australian Open Preview: Women's Draw

The Australian Open is less than 24 hours away and it is time for me to preview the Women's Draw of the Australian Open. I will list 10 things for tennis fans to look for as they watch the Women's Draw unfold.

1. Look For Chaos: 

While I think the very top players will be safe, there will be a ton of unexpected things happening to players ranked outside the top four. Nobody is safe from an upset in the WTA with how fluid and inconsistent it can be. There will likely be at least a couple of surprise players that get to at least the Quarterfinals if not further.

2. Serena Williams Will Easily Reach The Final: 

The #1 seed Serena Williams has such an easy draw to the Final it's not even funny. The only players that are a threat to her in her half of the draw aren't even really threats! Against #6 Petra Kvitova, Serena Williams is 5-0 all time; against #4 seeded Na Li, Serena Williams is 10-1 all time; and against #7 seeded Sara Errani, Serena Williams is 6-0 all time. That's a combined record of 21-1! If Serena Williams doesn't reach the Final, it will be due to a huge upset.

3. Keep An Eye On Sorana Cirstea: 

Sorana Cirstea started outside the top 60 in 2013 and finished in the top 25. She made tremendous strides in 2013 and fortunately for her, she has a really nice draw until she gets to the Quarterfinals to face the #3 seed Maria Sharapova. She's only faced Sharapova once, but the time they faced, Sharapova won handily, so I don't see Cirstea getting beyond the Quarterfinals if all goes according to form. With that being said, it is entirely possible that she doesn't even half to face Sharapova due to an upset, which would then really open the window for her to make a deep run.

4. Samantha Stosur Will Blow Up, But I Can't Predict When It Will Happen: 

On paper, Samantha Stosur should be able to reach the Round of 16 and maybe threaten Serena Williams, but if history tells us anything, she'll burn out way earlier than that. Stosur mentally hasn't been able to handle the pressures of the Australian Open, which is played in front of her home crowd. Typically Australians love to play in front of their home fans, but in Stosur's case it seems to be a bad thing. I wish her the best of luck and hope she can find a way to break free of her mental block down under.

5. Sloane Stephens Has A Chance To Go All The Way If She Gets Passed Victoria Azarenka: 

Sloane Stephens and Victoria Azarenka are scheduled to meet in the round of 16. Azarenka beat Stephens handily in their only meeting back in 2013, but Stephens continues to improve and will be tougher this season. She especially gets up for the grand slams. If she finds a way to squeak past Azarenka, I could easily see her getting past Agnieszka Radwanska and Maria Sharapova to reach the Final.

6. Will Na Li Be A Contender? 

I ask this as a question because she has made a deep run down under before and likes the Aussie crowd. But with Serena Williams in her half of the draw, I don't see her getting back to the Finals. That being said, if Serena Williams were to somehow lose early on, Na Li would be my pick to come out of that half of the draw.

7. Can Sabine Lisicki Make A Run On A Surface Other Than Grass? 

We all know Sabine Lisicki is a threat at Wimbledon, but she hasn't really seemed to make the next jump to becoming a threat at slam not called Wimbledon. I like Sabine's game a lot and she has a ton of confidence in her game on the grass. It'll be interesting if she carries that swagger into this hard court slam and makes a deep run. She has the game to definitely do it with her hard serve and overall aggression.

8. Petra Kvitova Will Disappoint: 

I've always felt like Petra Kvitova was a "one-slam wonder" in the sense that after winning Wimbledon back in 2011, I didn't think she'd win a slam again. She isn't the fastest moving player on the court, and while she has power and has the ability to be tricky due to her left handed play, I don't see enough aggression in her game to go out and win multiple slams. I expect Kvitova to have another disappointing grand slam relative to her expectations, and go out in the Quarterfinals.

9. Don't Write Off Agnieszka Radwanksa: 

Even though Radwanska plays conservative tennis and isn't one of the hard hitters on the WTA tour, her style of play could maybe win a grand slam if the seas parted for her. Should Serena Williams fail to reach the Final along with a Sloane Stephens upset of Victoria Azarenka, an Agnieszka Radwanska grand slam title down under suddenly would look very possible due to her consistent play.

10. Look For A Tough Final Between Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams With Serena Williams Winning: 

Just like the Men's draw, I expect the #1 and #2 seeds to make it to the Final. I think Azarenka is the only serious threat to Williams and vice versa. I expect their match to be long, intense, and dramatic with Serena Williams winning in three tight sets!

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy 

2014 Australian Open Preview: Men's Draw

The Australian Open starts in less than 24 hours and it is time for me to make my predictions for the first grand slam of the year. What I will do is list 10 things that every tennis fan should be watching for as they watch the Men's Draw unfold.

1. Look For Novak Djokovic To Have An Easy Run To The Final: 
Novak Djokovic may be seeded #2, but it's no secret that he has an easier draw than the top seeded Rafael Nadal. Nadal has Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer in his half of the draw, whereas the only real threats in Djokovic's half of the draw are Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The highest seed in Djokovic's draw aside from him is the 3rd seeded David Ferrer, who we all know isn't even remotely a threat to take out Djokovic. Against Berdych, Wawrinka, and Ferrer combined, Djokovic is 41-9. If he has that kind of dominance over the toughest players in his half of the draw, there is no reason to not think that Novak Djokovic will reach the Australian Open Men's Singles Final.

2. Roger Federer Won't Go Very Far: 

Roger Federer might be the greatest tennis player of all time, but he isn't going to go very far in the Australian Open. The main reason is that his draw is really tough with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Andy Murray as his projected 4th Round and Quarterfinals opponents. I don't see any way he gets to the Semifinals as the #6 seed with those players in front of him. If he wants to make another deep run at a grand slam (which I doubt he will), he will have to boost up his ranking to get a more favorable draw.

3. Look For Lleyton Hewitt To Make A Little Noise: 

When I filled out my bracket, I picked Lleyton Hewitt to to upset #24 Andreas Seppi and get all the way to the 4th Round before he runs into Rafael Nadal. Hewitt loves to play in front of his home Australian crowd and he always gets extra juiced for his matches down under. I expect him to play well as a result of the extra energy and make his way into the 2nd week of the slam.

4. Nobody Knows How Andy Murray Is Going To Do: 

Andy Murray ended 2013 on a bit of a sour note with back problems which required surgery. He has spent the past week in Melbourne, declining a wild card to the Heineken Open and instead choosing to practice where the Australian Open will be held. If his back feels fine, he should make another deep push for a grand slam title, but if his back gives him any problems, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or maybe even John Isner could be there to take advantage. I think Murray will be fine and will reach the Semifinals to face Rafael Nadal, but with that being said,  how he plays the first couple of rounds will definitely be something to watch for.

5. Look For An Exciting 4th Round Match Between Milos Raonic and Juan Martin Del Potro: 

If everything holds to form, Milos Raonic and Juan Martin Del Potro should meet in what is sure to be a slugfest between two power hitters. Del Potro and his monstrous forehand vs. Raonic and his booming serve! This is definitely a match to have circled on your calendars! Also, the ramifications are huge with a trip to the Quarterfinals of a grand slam on the line. Especially for Raonic, who has never reached the Quarterfinals of a grand slam before.

6. Look For David Ferrer To Be David Ferrer: 

David Ferrer is one of the most unique tennis players we have ever seen in terms of where he fits in on the tour. He is one of the most consistent players to ever play, and that is both a good thing and a bad thing. It's a good thing because he consistently beats the players he is supposed to beat and it's a bad thing because he consistently loses to the players who are ranked ahead of him. I expect that pattern to continue down under. I did pick Tomas Berdych to knock him out in the Quarterfinals, but that's really rolling the dice. Don't be surprised to see Ferrer beat Berdych handily in the Quarterfinals and then get crushed by Novak Djokovic in the Semifinals.

7. Look For Tomas Berdych Make A Deep Run: 

I just said that I am rolling the dice to pick Tomas Berdych to reach the Semifinals, but I'm sticking with it! His draw really is favorable, and facing Ferrer in the Quarterfinals is much better than drawing Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, or Novak Djokovic. While it's highly unlikely he reaches the Final with Djokovic as his likely Semifinal opponent, the one thing in Berdych's favor is that Djokovic doesn't await him until the Semifinals if he does at all. If Berdych can get to the Semifinals, who knows what happens from there. He'll only be 2 matches away from a grand slam title.

8. Look For Rafael Nadal To Survive His Draw All The Way To The Final: 

As tough as Nadal's draw is with Tsonga, Federer, Murray, and Del Potro all as possible opponents on his way to the Final, I still like Nadal to get to the Final when it is all said and done. He's too talented not to, and with Federer aging and Murray's back being a concern, that certainly ups Rafa's odds at getting to the Final.

9. Look For Things To Go Chalk: 

At the end of the day, look for the highest seeds to advance in their proper order. There is a lot of talent in the men's game, but also a lot of structure, and very little upheaval and changing of the guard going on. I know Wimbledon was nuts last year, but I think that was a freaky result of too many players not having the time to adjust to the grass courts after clay season. This is the beginning of the season on the most commonly played surface of hard court. No such surprises await the players in this Australian Open. The top seeds should advance with regularity with only maybe an upset or two along the way.

10. Look For Novak Djokovic To Beat Rafael Nadal In The Final: 

My prediction for the Australian Open Men's Draw is that Novak Djokovic will win the title in 5 sets over Rafael Nadal. Both players are the top two players in tennis right now and I expect them to face off in the Final. Given the importance for Djokovic to win this Australian Open due to Nadal's bounce back season, I expect Djokovic to win as a result of having that extra motivation and sense of urgency in addition to playing on his favorite surface. He has all 2000 ranking points to defend at the Australian Open after winning it last year, and Nadal has no ranking points to defend sine he didn't play in it last year. Djokovic has to win the Australian Open if he wants to finish 2014 ranked #1, which is why I think he wins it. If he doesn't win the Australian Open he can pretty much kiss the #1 ranking for 2014 goodbye whereas for Nadal he still has his favorite grand slam (Roland Garros) to look forward to.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy  

Novak Djokovic Must Win The Australian Open This Season

When winning a grand slam and finishing #2 in the world is considered a disappointing season, you know the expectations on you are really high. Such is the case for Novak Djokovic, who won the Australian Open in 2013, and finished #2 in the world behind Rafael Nadal. For Nadal, 2013 was more than just a bounce back season. It was reaffirmation of his greatness and a reminder that when healthy, there may be no one who has played the sport of tennis as well as he has. For Djokovic, it was a season where he realized that the level of play required of him to continue to dominate the ATP World Tour had just been raised.

Djokovic watched Nadal once again win the French Open and US Open, and also saw Andy Murray win Wimbledon. Djokovic no longer had Roger Federer to worry about, but in Federer's place he had to deal with a refreshed and rejuvenated Rafael Nadal and an Andy Murray who is playing the best tennis of his career. With these seismic changes in the tennis landscape occurring in 2013, Novak Djokovic enters 2014 with challenges that we didn't foresee as we entered 2013. He is no longer considered a lock to win any grand slam, whereas a year ago, he was the heavy favorite to win all but the French Open.

With these major changes in the tennis landscape occurring, the importance of winning the Australian Open is more important than it ever has been for Novak Djokovic. Winning the Australian Open would help Djokovic somewhat reestablish himself and let the tennis world know that he is still going to be a tough out at all grand slams, whereas failure to win the Australian Open would be disastrous. The reason why it would be so disastrous for Djokovic to fail to win the Australian Open is because the Australian Open is his favorite grand slam event. Not only is hard court Djokovic's surface of choice, but more specifically, his favorite surface is the hard courts of the Australian Open. No place is tougher to beat Novak Djokovic at (just ask Stanislas Wawrinka). If Novak Djokovic gets beaten on his favorite surface and favorite grand slam, I don't see any way he wins a grand slam in 2014. The French Open will not be viewed as even remotely possible, and as for Wimbledon and the US Open, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will be the favorites to win each event. Without winning a grand slam, Djokovic won't finish the year #1, and probably not even #2. A year without a grand slam would be a year of bigger regression than this year, and we'll be having the same conversation again in a year only with even more urgency.

In conclusion, Novak Djokovic has to win the Australian Open this year because it's the only way he can stay afloat in the conversation for the best player in the world. Right now, some people still believe Djokovic is the best player in the world in face of Rafael Nadal's incredible 2013  season in which he finished #1 in the world and won both the French Open and US Open. But if Djokovic doesn't win the Australian Open, there is no way that anybody can still think he's the best player in the world. Especially since if he doesn't win the Australian Open, Rafael Nadal will likely be the winner of it since Andy Murray is dealing with a bad back, Roger Federer's game has declined since 2012, and nobody outside of the "Big Four" is considered to be a serious grand slam threat. If Djokovic doesn't win the Australian Open, that would likely mean that Nadal will have won three of the past four grand slams with a firm grip on the world's #1 ranking going into his favorite grand slam, the French Open. No situation could be more pretty for Nadal and more disastrous for Djokovic at the same time.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy