The Australian Open starts in less than 24 hours and it is time for me to make my predictions for the first grand slam of the year. What I will do is list 10 things that every tennis fan should be watching for as they watch the Men's Draw unfold.
1. Look For Novak Djokovic To Have An Easy Run To The Final:
Novak Djokovic may be seeded #2, but it's no secret that he has an easier draw than the top seeded Rafael Nadal. Nadal has Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer in his half of the draw, whereas the only real threats in Djokovic's half of the draw are Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The highest seed in Djokovic's draw aside from him is the 3rd seeded David Ferrer, who we all know isn't even remotely a threat to take out Djokovic. Against Berdych, Wawrinka, and Ferrer combined, Djokovic is 41-9. If he has that kind of dominance over the toughest players in his half of the draw, there is no reason to not think that Novak Djokovic will reach the Australian Open Men's Singles Final.
2. Roger Federer Won't Go Very Far:
Roger Federer might be the greatest tennis player of all time, but he isn't going to go very far in the Australian Open. The main reason is that his draw is really tough with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Andy Murray as his projected 4th Round and Quarterfinals opponents. I don't see any way he gets to the Semifinals as the #6 seed with those players in front of him. If he wants to make another deep run at a grand slam (which I doubt he will), he will have to boost up his ranking to get a more favorable draw.
3. Look For Lleyton Hewitt To Make A Little Noise:
When I filled out my bracket, I picked Lleyton Hewitt to to upset #24 Andreas Seppi and get all the way to the 4th Round before he runs into Rafael Nadal. Hewitt loves to play in front of his home Australian crowd and he always gets extra juiced for his matches down under. I expect him to play well as a result of the extra energy and make his way into the 2nd week of the slam.
4. Nobody Knows How Andy Murray Is Going To Do:
Andy Murray ended 2013 on a bit of a sour note with back problems which required surgery. He has spent the past week in Melbourne, declining a wild card to the Heineken Open and instead choosing to practice where the Australian Open will be held. If his back feels fine, he should make another deep push for a grand slam title, but if his back gives him any problems, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or maybe even John Isner could be there to take advantage. I think Murray will be fine and will reach the Semifinals to face Rafael Nadal, but with that being said, how he plays the first couple of rounds will definitely be something to watch for.
5. Look For An Exciting 4th Round Match Between Milos Raonic and Juan Martin Del Potro:
If everything holds to form, Milos Raonic and Juan Martin Del Potro should meet in what is sure to be a slugfest between two power hitters. Del Potro and his monstrous forehand vs. Raonic and his booming serve! This is definitely a match to have circled on your calendars! Also, the ramifications are huge with a trip to the Quarterfinals of a grand slam on the line. Especially for Raonic, who has never reached the Quarterfinals of a grand slam before.
6. Look For David Ferrer To Be David Ferrer:
David Ferrer is one of the most unique tennis players we have ever seen in terms of where he fits in on the tour. He is one of the most consistent players to ever play, and that is both a good thing and a bad thing. It's a good thing because he consistently beats the players he is supposed to beat and it's a bad thing because he consistently loses to the players who are ranked ahead of him. I expect that pattern to continue down under. I did pick Tomas Berdych to knock him out in the Quarterfinals, but that's really rolling the dice. Don't be surprised to see Ferrer beat Berdych handily in the Quarterfinals and then get crushed by Novak Djokovic in the Semifinals.
7. Look For Tomas Berdych Make A Deep Run:
I just said that I am rolling the dice to pick Tomas Berdych to reach the Semifinals, but I'm sticking with it! His draw really is favorable, and facing Ferrer in the Quarterfinals is much better than drawing Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, or Novak Djokovic. While it's highly unlikely he reaches the Final with Djokovic as his likely Semifinal opponent, the one thing in Berdych's favor is that Djokovic doesn't await him until the Semifinals if he does at all. If Berdych can get to the Semifinals, who knows what happens from there. He'll only be 2 matches away from a grand slam title.
8. Look For Rafael Nadal To Survive His Draw All The Way To The Final:
As tough as Nadal's draw is with Tsonga, Federer, Murray, and Del Potro all as possible opponents on his way to the Final, I still like Nadal to get to the Final when it is all said and done. He's too talented not to, and with Federer aging and Murray's back being a concern, that certainly ups Rafa's odds at getting to the Final.
9. Look For Things To Go Chalk:
At the end of the day, look for the highest seeds to advance in their proper order. There is a lot of talent in the men's game, but also a lot of structure, and very little upheaval and changing of the guard going on. I know Wimbledon was nuts last year, but I think that was a freaky result of too many players not having the time to adjust to the grass courts after clay season. This is the beginning of the season on the most commonly played surface of hard court. No such surprises await the players in this Australian Open. The top seeds should advance with regularity with only maybe an upset or two along the way.
10. Look For Novak Djokovic To Beat Rafael Nadal In The Final:
My prediction for the Australian Open Men's Draw is that Novak Djokovic will win the title in 5 sets over Rafael Nadal. Both players are the top two players in tennis right now and I expect them to face off in the Final. Given the importance for Djokovic to win this Australian Open due to Nadal's bounce back season, I expect Djokovic to win as a result of having that extra motivation and sense of urgency in addition to playing on his favorite surface. He has all 2000 ranking points to defend at the Australian Open after winning it last year, and Nadal has no ranking points to defend sine he didn't play in it last year. Djokovic has to win the Australian Open if he wants to finish 2014 ranked #1, which is why I think he wins it. If he doesn't win the Australian Open he can pretty much kiss the #1 ranking for 2014 goodbye whereas for Nadal he still has his favorite grand slam (Roland Garros) to look forward to.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy
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