Saturday, January 31, 2015

2015 Australian Open Men's Final Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray



     At 3:30 AM EST on Sunday, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will square off in the Men's Singles Final of the Australian Open. Novak Djokovic will be going for his 8th career grand slam title while Andy Murray will be going for his 3rd.

     Novak Djokovic is 15-8 all-time against Andy Murray, but it should be noted that in both of Andy Murray's grand slam titles at Wimbledon and at the US Open, he defeated Novak Djokovic in the Final.  More importantly, Andy Murray appears to be back to the form he was in when he won both of those grand slam titles. So while it is also true that Novak Djokovic has defeated Andy Murray four straight times, I think that Andy Murray has a much better chance of defeating Djokovic than he did in their previous four meetings.

     The key for Andy Murray will be to keep his cool out there and not let his emotions get the best of him. Before he won grand slam titles, Andy Murray always let his emotions get the best of him, and that cost him. In both of his grand slam championships, Andy Murray didn't let his emotions distract him. He stayed much more focused and in the moment. If he wants to win his third grand slam title, he'll have to do the same.

     Andy Murray will also need to hold his serve and really take advantage of every break point opportunity he gets. Break points and second serve points are always the most important points in tennis, and Andy Murray will have to out perform Novak Djokovic in both of those areas if he is to win Sunday's match. In addition, Murray will also want to be making a good percentage of his first serves given that Novak Djokovic has such a good service return. If Murray is taking too many second serves, that will definitely work to the advantage of Djokovic.

     As for Novak Djokovic, he too will want to win his second serve points and capitalize on break point opportunities. Specifically against Andy Murray, Djokovic will really want to win the points he has at the net. In matches against Andy Murray in which he came to the net a lot more, Djokovic didn't usually find success in terms of winning the match. If he's going to come up to the net a lot, Djokovic better win those points.

     Given his head-to-head record against Andy Murray as well as the fact that this is the grand slam where has had the most success, I have to pick Novak Djokovic to win this match. Andy Murray is playing really good tennis right now and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win, but all the same, everything points to a Novak Djokovic victory in five sets. I hope it will be a great match!

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news

Friday, January 30, 2015

2015 Australian Open Women's Final Preview: Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova


     On Saturday at 3:30 AM EST, World #1 Serena Williams and World #2 Maria Sharapova will face off in the Women's Singles Final of the Australian Open, the first grand slam of the year. Serena Williams comes into this match having beaten Maria Sharapova 15 straight times, making her the odds on favorite to win this match. However, this is still a very interesting and intriguing match given how both players have played over the course of this tournament as well as the past calendar year.

     The main point I want to get across is that Maria Sharapova absolutely has a chance of winning this match. She just needs to adjust her game and more importantly believe that she can win. I used to think that Maria Sharapova just didn't have the game to beat Serena Williams, but upon watching her play over the past 18 months, I realize that she does have the game to beat Serena Williams, she just hasn't had the belief.

      I cannot really break down the "belief" aspect of all this, but I can break down some of the things that Sharapova needs to do to win this match. The first thing she needs to do is extend the rallies and not try to out-muscle Serena Williams. Part of Maria's issue has been that like Serena Williams, she is a power player who is used to dictating the points. Maria needs to understand that she can't win short rallies with Serena, but instead needs to extend the rallies and force Serena into making some unforced errors.

     Secondly, Maria Sharapova needs to be making her first serves and winning her service games. She has just as good of a serve as anybody else on the WTA tour and needs to use that to her advantage. If Maria is on point with her serves and gets those easy points, her odds of winning this match go up a ton. If on the other hand she takes a lot of second serves and double-faults, she'll be doomed.

     Lastly, Maria Sharapova needs to capitalize on her break point chances, especially when Serena Williams gives her a second serve. The most important points in tennis are opportunities to break your opponent's serve. If Maria can break Serena's serve when she gets the chance, odds are very good she'll win this match.

     As for Serena Williams, she needs to come out guns blazing with a ton of aggression. Serena knows that she has been in Maria Sharapova's head for a long time and that she can psyche out Maria Sharapova with her power and aggression. The longer the match goes, the more Maria Sharapova will believe she has a chance. Serena needs to keep the points short and try to pounce on Maria Sharapova for a quick 3-0 lead. If Serena Williams can take the first set 6-2, 6-1, or 6-0, the match will essentially be over.

     There really isn't much else Serena Williams needs to do. She just needs to take away any belief that Maria Sharapova has in herself. This match in many ways is as much of a mental war as it is a physical war on the tennis court. If Sharapova believes she can win and maintains that belief throughout the match, it will be a very close match. If Sharapova on the other hand loses all hope, then Serena Williams will steamroll her as usual.

     What is my prediction for this match? I predict that Maria Sharapova will win. I picked her to win the Australian Open in my preview and I'll stick with it. Now, that being stated, I did say that Serena Williams wouldn't reach the Final, but all the same, I'll stick with my pick and say that Maria Sharapova will end her drought against Serena Williams and capture her 6th career grand slam title.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news 

Saturday, January 17, 2015

2015 Australian Open Preview


Welcome to my preview for the 2015 Australian Open! As I do with all my Grand Slam previews, I list ten things to look for in the tournament. Enjoy!

#1. Victoria Azarenka is the wild card in this event: Azarenka is unseeded in the Australian Open which makes things very interesting since her talent level is that of a top-five player. [1] Serena Williams and [8] Caroline Wozniacki are in her quarter, but she definitely has the game to crash the party and be the one to reach the semifinals. Note: When I say Azarenka is a wild card, I mean she's a wild card in the sense that she's the unknown variable in the event. She is not a "Wild Card" in the literal meaning of the term as it applies to tennis tournaments.

#2. Novak Djokovic has to win it all: Novak Djokovic is usually at his best on the hard courts of Australia. I know he won Wimbledon in 2014, but all the same, if he doesn't win down under, he could be looking ahead at a year in which he doesn't win a Grand Slam.

#3. Maria Sharapova is as far away from Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka as possible: The only two players who Maria Sharapova should fear in this event are Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka. Thankfully for Sharapova, she can only face Serena or Vika in the Final, which means that the draw is very kind to her. This is what she gets rewarded with for earning the #2 seed in the tournament.

#4. We have no idea what to expect from Rafael Nadal: Nadal's health is always a concern on the hard courts which makes it very hard to predict how he will do at the Australian Open. All the same, Nadal was in the Final last year and he is seeded 3rd overall. Nadal will either go out very early or he'll go very deep in the tournament. I expect him to go very deep.

#5. How will Eugenie Bouchard handle the pressure? Eugenie Bouchard has morphed from the pretty darling of the tennis world to a viable threat to win a Grand Slam. Bouchard appears to be focused and driven to handle the pressure, but we will have to wait and see if she delivers.

#6. Does Roger Federer have one more in him? We ask this at every Grand Slam and it appears as though Roger Federer has enough gas in the tank to win one more Grand Slam. This might be a good time for him to get another one given that his main rivals Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray have clouds of doubt hanging over their heads.

#7. Can Sabine Lisicki threaten to win a Grand Slam that isn't on grass? We all know Sabine Lisicki is a threat to win Wimbledon every year. She loves the grass. However, the hard courts haven't exactly been her friend. She's seeded #28 but has to be viewed as a dark horse coming into this event. Maybe this is the non-grass Grand Slam she breaks through on.

#8. Can we really predict the Men's draw? It used to be that we could book some combination of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, or Federer to be in the Final. But after seeing Marin Cilic and Stanislas Wawrinka win slams last year, we have no reason to be sure that things will return to their normal order. Perhaps there really is a changing of the guard happening.

#9. Look for Maria Sharapova to win the Australian Open: Normally I would pick Serena Williams to win since she is the best player on the planet, but something tells me Serena won't reach the Final this year. In addition, it feels as though Sharapova is due for another title at the Australian Open. Unless she has to face Serena Williams in the Final, I think Sharapova is going to get it done down under.

#10. Look for Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open: On the men's side, I expect Novak Djokovic to come out on top. Even though there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding men's tennis, Novak Djokovic is still the #1 ranked player in the world for a reason. He loves the Australian Open and is most comfortable on its hard courts. I see Novak Djokovic restoring order in the tennis world and winning his 8th Grand Slam title.

Projected Men's Quarterfinals: [2] Roger Federer vs. [6] Andy Murray. [3] Rafael Nadal vs. [7] Tomas Berdych. [5] Kei Nishkori vs. [4] Stanislas Wawrinka. [1] Novak Djokovic vs. [8] Milos Raonic.

Projected Women's Quarterfinals: [1] Serena Williams vs. [8] Caroline Wozniacki. [4] Petra Kvitova vs. [6] Agnieszka Radwanska. [5] Ana Ivanovic vs. [3] Simona Halep. [7] Eugenie Bouchard vs. [2] Maria Sharapova.

Interesting 1st Round Matchups:  Nicolas Almagro vs. [5] Kei Nishikori. [3] Rafael Nadal vs. Mikhail Youzhny. Sloane Stephens vs. Victoria Azarenka.

---Ben Parker: follow me  on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news