Sunday, December 29, 2013

10 Things To Watch For In The 2014 Tennis Season

The 2014 ATP and WTA season starts this upcoming week, and the Australian Open is starting in a couple of weeks, which is the first grand slam event of the season. With the season just getting under way, I will list ten things to look out for in the 2014 season on both tours. These will be some key predictions for the upcoming season.


#1. Look for Novak Djokovic to establish his dominance early in the season: 

Novak Djokovic is frustrated about losing his #1 ranking to Rafael Nadal. That is why he hired Boris Becker to be his coach. He's looking for an edge to reclaim the #1 ranking in the world, and I think he will do just that through the first four and half months of the season, though I  do think it'll be a year long struggle between Djokovic and Nadal for the #1 ranking. I expect Djokovic to win the Australian Open, his favorite grand slam, and thus put the pressure on Rafael Nadal to respond by winning the French Open at Roland Garros.



#2. Look for Serena Williams to continue to be the most dominant player in the WTA: 

If you think Serena Williams is going to slow down in 2014, you are sorely mistaken. She is in as good of shape as she has ever been and more importantly, she is more driven to win than she has ever been. Serena has 17 grand slam titles and  knows she is creeping up on Steffi Graf's mark of 22 grand slam titles and Margaret Court's all-time record of 24 grand slam titles. The only player on the WTA tour who should worry Serena Williams is Victoria Azarenka, who will prove to be a tough out on both the hard courts of Australia and the US Open. But I don't see Azarenka getting more than 1 slam, which means that I expect Serena Williams to win at least two grand slam titles, and probably three. There is no doubt in my mind that Serena Williams will finish the year #1, the only question is how many grand slam titles will she win?



#3. Look for Rafael Nadal to win at Roland Garros: 

I expect Rafael Nadal to win more than one grand slam title in 2014, but I am 100% confident that one of his grand slam titles will be the French Open. The clay is where he is most confident and feels most at home. There is no reason to not expect the "King of Clay" to continue his dominance on the dirt.  



#4. Roger Federer won't win a grand slam in 2014: 

I know this may come as a disappointment to Roger Federer fans, but I don't see Roger winning another grand slam title in 2014 or any time in the future for that matter. He is done winning grand slams as far as I'm concerned, and I personally think his final Wimbledon title was a result of him getting his second wind. I don't see a third wind coming for Federer. Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray are playing too well right now to reasonably think that Federer will win a slam ever again.



#5. Victoria Azarenka will win a grand slam title: 

Serena Williams may be the #1 female tennis player in the world (likely the #1 female athlete in the world), but that doesn't mean she will take home the hardware from all four grand slams this year. Serena is bound to slip up somewhere, and if/when she does, Victoria Azarenka is likely the one behind her to capitalize. Look for Australia and/or the US Open to be the most likely places where Azarenka gets a grand slam title. She's good enough to beat Serena Williams at either event.



#6. Maria Sharapova will have a quiet season: 

I'm not quite ready to say Maria Sharapova is done winning grand slams, but I'm close to saying that she is. She gets totally destroyed by Serena Williams every time they face and Victoria Azarenka's game also seems to be too powerful for Sharapova. Perhaps she wins another French Open and makes a run at Roland Garros, but I doubt it. Keep in mind that a quiet season for Maria Sharapova is still a fantastic season by most players' standards. She'll easily finish in the top five and reach two or three grand slam semis and maybe win a WTA Premiere event like Indian Wells. But I don't think she will win a grand slam title unless the seas really part for her with both Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka going down (which knowing the WTA tour could happen).



#7. Marion Bartoli will attempt a comeback: 

Marion Baroli is currently the #13 player in the world and retired shortly after winning Wimbledon last year. It usually takes players a while to truly walk away from the game for good and Bartoli seemed more like she wanted to end the 2013 season early rather than permanently retire. I could be wrong on this, but I think at some point in 2014, Marion Bartoli will enter a tournament and make an attempt at getting back in the flow of competitive tennis.



#8. It's going to be another long year for American men's tennis: 

I should note that by American men's tennis, I am referring to the singles, because the Bryan Brothers are still doing really well in doubles. John Isner is #14 in the world and is the top ranked American man, and you have to scroll all the way down to Sam Querrey at #46 in the world to find the #2 ranked American man. To say the least, if America is hoping for another man to win a grand slam title, it's probably not happening for a while. Ryan Harrison and Jack Sock seem promising, but they won't threaten at a grand slam this year, and it's entirely possible that they never will. When it comes to men's singles, American tennis is in the dark ages. Thankfully America has Serena Williams to cheer for on the women's side.



#9. Andy Murray will make his deepest run at Wimbledon: 

I don't want to say that Andy Murray won't win a grand slam in 2014 after all that he has accomplished. He has earned the same level of respect as Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in terms of factoring into the championship equation at grand slams, but simply due to the nature of how tough it is up at the very top, it's hard to see Murray winning more than one grand slam in 2014. With that being said, if there's a place where he gets it done, I figure it'll have to be in front of the home fans in the United Kingdom.



#10. All grand slam title winners on the men's side will be either Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, or Andy Murray: 

As time goes on, Juan Martin Del Potro's US Open title in 2009 seems more and more like an aberration and less like a future trend. Del Potro has played really well, but I don't see him winning a grand slam title in 2014. He doesn't seem to have quite enough to take out more than one of the three guys listed above in a grand slam. He could maybe reach a final, but I find the odds of that happening to be highly unlikely, and the odds of him winning a grand slam to be even more slim. As for the rest of the guys considered to be candidates to take out Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray, I don't see any of them doing it. David Ferrer gets crushed against these top guys in grand slams, Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can't beat two or more of them in one event, and I've already explained why I don't see Roger Federer winning a grand slam. I can't predict all four grand slam events for you right now, but I can guarantee the men's winner for each grand slam event will either be Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy