Tuesday, July 21, 2015

10 things we learned from Wimbledon


     The 2015 Wimbledon championships lived up to the hype. Novak Djokovic reminded us that he is still the number one tennis player in the world and Serena Williams completed her "Serena Slam" with a calendar grand slam remaining a possibility. What I would like to do is recap the event by listing ten things to take away from the two weeks that were on the grass in London.

#1. Serena Williams is on a mission: Serena Williams did everything she could to prevent the media from talking to her about the "Serena Slam" and the possibility of a calendar grand slam, but make no mistake, this was on her mind the entire two weeks. She knows that if she wins a calendar grand slam in addition to the "Serena Slam", there is no reason to not say she is the greatest female tennis player ever. Steffi Graf in my opinion can already step aside  as can Margaret Court, but a calendar grand slam would just about be the icing on the cake. Winning 25 grand slams would officially do it for academic purposes, but Serena knows that if she wins the calendar slam, nobody will say she isn't the greatest ever.

#2. Novak Djokovic reminded us he's the best player in the world: After winning Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic should have silenced any critics who say he isn't the best player in the world. I think had Roger Federer won the title, there would be some room for debate, but at the moment, Novak Djokovic has a firm grip on the world #1 ranking while also having two grand slam titles in 2015.

#3. The WTA is still a crap shoot:  I've been saying for years that the WTA is a crap shoot. The 2015 Wimbledon reaffirmed this fact with Garbine Muguruza being the player to face Serena Williams in the final. I don't want to take anything away from Muguruza. She had a fantastic tournament and deserves all the credit in the world for what she accomplished at Wimbledon. But what I'm talking about is that week in week out, there is no consistency on the WTA tour outside of the fact that Serena Williams continues to dominate everybody she faces.

#4. Will Andy Murray win another Wimbledon? After seeing Andy Murray lose in straight sets to Roger Federer in the semifinals, one does have to wonder whether or not we will ever see Andy Murray win another Wimbledon title. The good news for Andy Murray is that he still has plenty of years left and he also is in the midst of leading Great Britain to its first Davis Cup title since 1936. Things are still looking good for the Scotsman.

#5. Victoria Azarenka appears to be on her way back: Victoria Azarenka should be feeling good about how things went for her at Wimbledon. She lost in the quarterfinals to Serena Williams and took her to a third set. Azarenka appears to be on a very short list of players who may deny Serena Williams of a calendar grand slam later this summer.

#6. Stanislas Wawrinka may be correct about himself: Now that he has won two grand slam titles, Stanislas Wawrinka rightfully deserves to be considered a contender at every grand slam, but when asked if he deserves to be considered in the same conversation as Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal, he hesitates, saying that he can compete with them, but what makes them different is their consistency.

     I don't think we should take Wawrinka's comments to be him simply trying to come off as humble. I genuinely believe that he is telling us what he thinks and I think we need to respect his honesty. As it stands, his results at Wimbledon (losing in the quarterfinals) back up his claims. He is able to put together some really good runs at grand slams, but week in week out he isn't the same player as those other guys I just mentioned.

#7. Venus Williams is probably done as a grand slam contender: I honestly believed Venus Williams was a threat to beat Serena Williams and win the Wimbledon title, but after losing in straight sets to Serena in the 4th round, I have a hard time thinking that Venus Williams can come back next year and win. It appears as though father time really has his grasp on Venus Williams and at best she can survive the opening week of a grand slam.

#8. Rafael Nadal may finally be done as a grand slam contender: I don't want to say that Rafael Nadal is done winning grand slams, but the man already has 14 grand slam titles as it is, and only Roger Federer has been able to go beyond that mark with 17 grand slam titles. 14 was the max for Pete Sampras and if I can be honest, Roger Federer may be sitting on 14 grand slam titles as well if it weren't for the fact that his first few grand slam titles were won in a weaker era. I'm not taking anything away from Roger's 17 grand slam titles, I'm just saying that 14 is a lot and given the way his body is breaking down, it's probably not realistic to expect Rafael Nadal to win another grand slam.

#9. Maria Sharapova needs to find a way to overcome Serena Williams: Maria Sharapova has had a fantastic career. She's won a career slam and has five grand slam titles overall. But I have to say, the way that Serena Williams has dominated her over the years is alarming. Plus, her inability to beat Serena Williams may be what keeps her from winning 10 grand slams or more.

     After her 2-6, 4-6 loss to Serena Williams in the Wimbledon semifinals, Sharapova now has a 17 match losing streak to Serena Williams. That really is unacceptable for a player who has won so many grand slams and found success against every other player on tour. Sharapova has to find a way to get some wins against Serena Williams. Otherwise, her inability to beat Serena Williams will remain a bit of a black mark on an otherwise fantastic hall of fame career.

#10. Grigor Dimitrov is really a disappointment: After appearing to have a breakout season in 2014, with a ranking as high as #8 in the world to go along with a trip to the semifinals of Wimbledon, Grigor Dimitrov has since regressed. He is now #16 in the world and he lost in the 3rd round of Wimbledon to Richard Gasquet in straight sets to follow up a first round loss to Jack Sock at Roland Garros. Perhaps what we saw from Grigor Dimitrov in 2014 is the best we'll ever see from him.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy and like my Facebook page ATP Guy Nation to keep up with the world of tennis! 

Saturday, July 11, 2015

2015 Wimbledon Men's Singles Final Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer

                                                (Credit: Marianne Bevis. Click here for source) 

     The 2015 Wimbledon men's singles final is Sunday at 9:00 AM EST on ESPN. The two men competing for the title are men who we have been accustomed to seeing on the final Sunday of grand slams: World #1 Novak Djokovic and world #2 Roger Federer. Federer is in possession of 17 grand slam titles, the most of any male player, and Djokovic is in possession of 8 grand slam titles, which makes him tied with Andre Agassi and a slew of other players.

     They have faced each other 39 times over the course of their careers, with Federer holding a 20-19 edge. While it is true that Federer's best surface is grass and Djokovic's best surface is hard court, what's interesting is that in the three matches that they have played on grass (all being at Wimbledon), Djokovic has won twice. This suggests that the grass may not be giving Federer as big of an advantage as we would think. Ironically, Federer has had better success against Djokovic on clay, with a 4-3 record. What makes that ironic is that Federer has only one grand slam title on clay at the 2009 French Open but he has seven Wimbledon titles.

     In truth, if you look at the head-to-head records, there really isn't a reason to give one man an edge over the other. When these two guys play, it's almost always a really competitive and close match. When it comes to picking a winner, one has to look at how both men have been playing over the course of the tournament.

     To get to the Wimbledon final, Roger Federer has defeated Damir Dzumhur, Sam Querrey, Sam Groth, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gilles Simon, and Andy Murray. In his six matches, Federer has dropped only one set.  As for Novak Djokovic, he has defeated Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jarkko Nieminen, Bernard Tomic, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, and Richard Gasquet. In his six matches, Djokovic has dropped two sets, both of which were in his five set thriller against Kevin Anderson.

     Based on this data, one would give Federer a slight edge. He has dropped fewer sets against slightly better competition. In the semifinals, Federer defeated Andy Murray in straight sets, who is probably the biggest threat to him and Djokovic. As for Djokovic, he too won his semifinal match against Richard Gasquet in straight sets, but in that match he was taken to a tiebreaker in the first set and narrowly won the next two sets 6-4, 6-4.

     What also factors into all of this is what both players are playing for. Federer is playing for his 18th grand slam title and his eighth Wimbledon title, which would give him more Wimbledon titles than any other man in the history of tennis. As for Djokovic, he is playing for his ninth grand slam title and his third Wimbledon title.

     What Federer is playing for is greater from an all-time historical perspective, but at least in his case, his legacy is already set in stone as the greatest tennis player of all-time. Some, including myself, have put forth arguments for why Rafael Nadal should be considered the greatest of all time, or why Pete Sampras deserves to recognized as such, but at the end of the day, the true measuring stick for greatness in tennis is grand slam titles.

     Federer has more of those than any other man in the history of the game, which is why I say his legacy is set in stone. One can argue about a lot of things, but nobody can argue about who has the most grand slam titles ever. The answer is Roger Federer and until somebody else passes him with more grand slam titles, Federer will be the greatest tennis player ever.

   


                                                 (Credit: Marianne Bevis. Click here for source)

     Unlike Federer, Djokovic is still in the process of passing other tennis legends on the all-time grand slam champion list. He is still yet to pass Andre Agassi, Ivan Lendl, Jimmy Connors, Ken Rosewall, and Fred Perry, all who have eight grand slam titles as well. Ahead of him on the all-time list are Bill Tilden (10), Rod Laver (11), Björn Borg (11), Roy Emerson (12), Rafael Nadal (14), Pete Sampras (14), and of course Roger Federer (17).

     While many rightfully want to mention Djokovic in the same sentence as Nadal, Sampras, and Federer for what he has accomplished so far, it needs to be made clear that Djokovic still has a some work to do before he fully deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as those three players. For Djokovic, a win on Sunday against Roger Federer would be a huge résumé builder for him and also put him eighth on the all-time grand slam titles list.

     A loss on the other hand, would hurt his legacy. It would make him 1-2 in grand slam finals this year and also give another grand slam title to a player whose all-time record he is chasing. In many ways, one could argue that if Novak Djokovic wants to someday join the greatest of all-time discussion, he needs to win Sunday's Wimbledon final against Roger Federer. That may sound like an overreaction to one match, but if you think about it, this is the final of Wimbledon, the biggest tennis match of the year and he is playing the game's greatest player.

     When considering all these factors, I have to give a slight edge to Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon. In my Wimbledon preview, I picked him to win and I don't see a good enough reason for me to pick against him. While Federer may never get another chance to play in a Wimbledon final and win a record eight Wimbledon titles, Novak Djokovic really does have more on the line. His reputation as the best player in the world and his reputation as perhaps the greatest tennis player ever are both on the line. Federer has neither of those things on the line and thus shouldn't feel as much motivation to win.

     If Djokovic doesn't win this title, this will sting way more than the loss in Paris did last month because now his pain will be compounded by another failure in a grand slam final. For Djokovic, this feels like a must win match while for Federer, it feels much more like icing on the cake. That in short is the real difference here.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news. Also, like my tennis page on Facebook ATP Guy Nation

Friday, July 10, 2015

2015 Wimbledon Women's Singles Final: Serena Williams vs. Garbine Muguruza

                                         (Credit: Katherine Shann. Click here for source) 
   
     The women's Wimbledon singles final between world #1 Serena Williams and world #20 Garbine Muguruza is on Saturday at 8:00 AM EST on ESPN. While Muguruza is making her own kind of history by reaching her first grand slam final, Serena Williams is playing for something much bigger. She is playing to win her 21st grand slam title, which would close the gap on Margaret Court, who has 24 grand slam titles, the most all-time. She is playing to complete her second "Serena slam", which is winning four straight grand slam titles regardless of what year they were completed in. Lastly, she is playing to keep her calendar slam hopes alive, which is winning all four grand slam titles in a single season.

     Based on both their career achievements as well as what they have accomplished in the past season, it is clear that Serena Williams is the favorite to win this match. Anybody picking Muguruza to win would be predicting an upset of epic proportions. Not because Muguruza can't win, but because of what Serena Williams has at stake.

     Serena Williams is playing to become the first player since Steffi Graf in 1988 to win the calendar slam. She is playing to solidify herself as the greatest player in the history of women's tennis. If she were to lose, we would fail to see one of the greatest achievements in the history of sports, let alone tennis. There is so much riding on tomorrow's match from a historical perspective, that a loss for Serena Williams would be historically catastrophic.

     As for the tournament itself, here is how both players got to the final: Serena Williams defeated her sister Venus Williams in the fourth round, Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals, and Maria Sharapova in the semifinals. As for Muguruza, she defeated Caroline Wozniacki in the fourth round, Timea Bacsinszky in the quarterfinals, and Agnieszka Radwanska in the semifinals.

   

   
                                         (Credit: Celebwax.com. Click here for source) 
            
     While Muguruza appears to have had the easier draw, it should be noted that Caroline Wozniacki, Timea Bacsinszky, and Agnieszka Radwanska were all ranked higher than her going into this tournament. While the players she defeated aren't as good as Azarenka and Sharapova, Muguruza still deserves a ton of credit and respect for defeating three players ranked higher than her to reach the final. We shouldn't hold her draw against her at all when it comes to predicting who wins tomorrow. She played the draw she was given and so far has delivered the goods.

     If one were to make an argument for why Muguruza is going to win on Saturday, it would be because she has take down some really good players and has also defeated Serena Williams in one of their three meetings. That one meeting came in the second round of the 2014 French Open in which Muguruza won by the score of 6-2, 6-2.

     While it was on a different surface, it remains true that Muguruza has seen herself win a grand slam match against Serena Williams. The fact that she has done this has to give herself tremendous confidence going into Saturday's final. Not many players can say that they have won a grand slam match against Serena Williams on any surface, which puts Garbine Muguruza in rare company.

     That all being said, I still have Serena Williams winning this match in straight sets. I think Muguruza will give Williams a good fight, but in the end, we will see Williams come out victorious. Williams has too much at stake and also holds a 2-1 edge in the head-to-head, with both wins coming on hard court, a surface closer to grass than clay.

     If Muguruza is able to win the opening set, she'll definitely have a chance, but even then, one has to pick Serena Williams to win. Serena Williams had her toughest test in the third round against Heather Watson in which she trailed 0-3 in the third set and had to squeak it out 7-5. Serena Williams has been in as tough of a hole as she could realistically be in and she still came out victorious. The scary thing for Muguruza is that there is nothing she can do to give herself a "safe" lead. Unless she wins a championship point, Serena Williams will be favored to win all the way.

     I don't mean to make it come off like Muguruza has no chance of winning. She absolutely does. She is a top-20 player who is on the verge of cracking the top-10! She absolutely has a chance of winning! The problem is that she has no better chance than anybody else who has faced Serena Williams at Wimbledon. Every time a player puts the pressure on Serena Williams, Serena finds a way to deliver the goods and get the job done. Nobody is mentally tougher than Serena Williams, and that more than anything is why she is going to win.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news