The 2015 Wimbledon men's singles final is Sunday at 9:00 AM EST on ESPN. The two men competing for the title are men who we have been accustomed to seeing on the final Sunday of grand slams: World #1 Novak Djokovic and world #2 Roger Federer. Federer is in possession of 17 grand slam titles, the most of any male player, and Djokovic is in possession of 8 grand slam titles, which makes him tied with Andre Agassi and a slew of other players.
They have faced each other 39 times over the course of their careers, with Federer holding a 20-19 edge. While it is true that Federer's best surface is grass and Djokovic's best surface is hard court, what's interesting is that in the three matches that they have played on grass (all being at Wimbledon), Djokovic has won twice. This suggests that the grass may not be giving Federer as big of an advantage as we would think. Ironically, Federer has had better success against Djokovic on clay, with a 4-3 record. What makes that ironic is that Federer has only one grand slam title on clay at the 2009 French Open but he has seven Wimbledon titles.
In truth, if you look at the head-to-head records, there really isn't a reason to give one man an edge over the other. When these two guys play, it's almost always a really competitive and close match. When it comes to picking a winner, one has to look at how both men have been playing over the course of the tournament.
To get to the Wimbledon final, Roger Federer has defeated Damir Dzumhur, Sam Querrey, Sam Groth, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gilles Simon, and Andy Murray. In his six matches, Federer has dropped only one set. As for Novak Djokovic, he has defeated Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jarkko Nieminen, Bernard Tomic, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, and Richard Gasquet. In his six matches, Djokovic has dropped two sets, both of which were in his five set thriller against Kevin Anderson.
Based on this data, one would give Federer a slight edge. He has dropped fewer sets against slightly better competition. In the semifinals, Federer defeated Andy Murray in straight sets, who is probably the biggest threat to him and Djokovic. As for Djokovic, he too won his semifinal match against Richard Gasquet in straight sets, but in that match he was taken to a tiebreaker in the first set and narrowly won the next two sets 6-4, 6-4.
What also factors into all of this is what both players are playing for. Federer is playing for his 18th grand slam title and his eighth Wimbledon title, which would give him more Wimbledon titles than any other man in the history of tennis. As for Djokovic, he is playing for his ninth grand slam title and his third Wimbledon title.
What Federer is playing for is greater from an all-time historical perspective, but at least in his case, his legacy is already set in stone as the greatest tennis player of all-time. Some, including myself, have put forth arguments for why Rafael Nadal should be considered the greatest of all time, or why Pete Sampras deserves to recognized as such, but at the end of the day, the true measuring stick for greatness in tennis is grand slam titles.
Federer has more of those than any other man in the history of the game, which is why I say his legacy is set in stone. One can argue about a lot of things, but nobody can argue about who has the most grand slam titles ever. The answer is Roger Federer and until somebody else passes him with more grand slam titles, Federer will be the greatest tennis player ever.
Unlike Federer, Djokovic is still in the process of passing other tennis legends on the all-time grand slam champion list. He is still yet to pass Andre Agassi, Ivan Lendl, Jimmy Connors, Ken Rosewall, and Fred Perry, all who have eight grand slam titles as well. Ahead of him on the all-time list are Bill Tilden (10), Rod Laver (11), Björn Borg (11), Roy Emerson (12), Rafael Nadal (14), Pete Sampras (14), and of course Roger Federer (17).
While many rightfully want to mention Djokovic in the same sentence as Nadal, Sampras, and Federer for what he has accomplished so far, it needs to be made clear that Djokovic still has a some work to do before he fully deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as those three players. For Djokovic, a win on Sunday against Roger Federer would be a huge résumé builder for him and also put him eighth on the all-time grand slam titles list.
A loss on the other hand, would hurt his legacy. It would make him 1-2 in grand slam finals this year and also give another grand slam title to a player whose all-time record he is chasing. In many ways, one could argue that if Novak Djokovic wants to someday join the greatest of all-time discussion, he needs to win Sunday's Wimbledon final against Roger Federer. That may sound like an overreaction to one match, but if you think about it, this is the final of Wimbledon, the biggest tennis match of the year and he is playing the game's greatest player.
When considering all these factors, I have to give a slight edge to Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon. In my Wimbledon preview, I picked him to win and I don't see a good enough reason for me to pick against him. While Federer may never get another chance to play in a Wimbledon final and win a record eight Wimbledon titles, Novak Djokovic really does have more on the line. His reputation as the best player in the world and his reputation as perhaps the greatest tennis player ever are both on the line. Federer has neither of those things on the line and thus shouldn't feel as much motivation to win.
If Djokovic doesn't win this title, this will sting way more than the loss in Paris did last month because now his pain will be compounded by another failure in a grand slam final. For Djokovic, this feels like a must win match while for Federer, it feels much more like icing on the cake. That in short is the real difference here.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news. Also, like my tennis page on Facebook ATP Guy Nation
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