The women's Wimbledon singles final between world #1 Serena Williams and world #20 Garbine Muguruza is on Saturday at 8:00 AM EST on ESPN. While Muguruza is making her own kind of history by reaching her first grand slam final, Serena Williams is playing for something much bigger. She is playing to win her 21st grand slam title, which would close the gap on Margaret Court, who has 24 grand slam titles, the most all-time. She is playing to complete her second "Serena slam", which is winning four straight grand slam titles regardless of what year they were completed in. Lastly, she is playing to keep her calendar slam hopes alive, which is winning all four grand slam titles in a single season.
Based on both their career achievements as well as what they have accomplished in the past season, it is clear that Serena Williams is the favorite to win this match. Anybody picking Muguruza to win would be predicting an upset of epic proportions. Not because Muguruza can't win, but because of what Serena Williams has at stake.
Serena Williams is playing to become the first player since Steffi Graf in 1988 to win the calendar slam. She is playing to solidify herself as the greatest player in the history of women's tennis. If she were to lose, we would fail to see one of the greatest achievements in the history of sports, let alone tennis. There is so much riding on tomorrow's match from a historical perspective, that a loss for Serena Williams would be historically catastrophic.
As for the tournament itself, here is how both players got to the final: Serena Williams defeated her sister Venus Williams in the fourth round, Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals, and Maria Sharapova in the semifinals. As for Muguruza, she defeated Caroline Wozniacki in the fourth round, Timea Bacsinszky in the quarterfinals, and Agnieszka Radwanska in the semifinals.
While Muguruza appears to have had the easier draw, it should be noted that Caroline Wozniacki, Timea Bacsinszky, and Agnieszka Radwanska were all ranked higher than her going into this tournament. While the players she defeated aren't as good as Azarenka and Sharapova, Muguruza still deserves a ton of credit and respect for defeating three players ranked higher than her to reach the final. We shouldn't hold her draw against her at all when it comes to predicting who wins tomorrow. She played the draw she was given and so far has delivered the goods.
If one were to make an argument for why Muguruza is going to win on Saturday, it would be because she has take down some really good players and has also defeated Serena Williams in one of their three meetings. That one meeting came in the second round of the 2014 French Open in which Muguruza won by the score of 6-2, 6-2.
While it was on a different surface, it remains true that Muguruza has seen herself win a grand slam match against Serena Williams. The fact that she has done this has to give herself tremendous confidence going into Saturday's final. Not many players can say that they have won a grand slam match against Serena Williams on any surface, which puts Garbine Muguruza in rare company.
That all being said, I still have Serena Williams winning this match in straight sets. I think Muguruza will give Williams a good fight, but in the end, we will see Williams come out victorious. Williams has too much at stake and also holds a 2-1 edge in the head-to-head, with both wins coming on hard court, a surface closer to grass than clay.
If Muguruza is able to win the opening set, she'll definitely have a chance, but even then, one has to pick Serena Williams to win. Serena Williams had her toughest test in the third round against Heather Watson in which she trailed 0-3 in the third set and had to squeak it out 7-5. Serena Williams has been in as tough of a hole as she could realistically be in and she still came out victorious. The scary thing for Muguruza is that there is nothing she can do to give herself a "safe" lead. Unless she wins a championship point, Serena Williams will be favored to win all the way.
I don't mean to make it come off like Muguruza has no chance of winning. She absolutely does. She is a top-20 player who is on the verge of cracking the top-10! She absolutely has a chance of winning! The problem is that she has no better chance than anybody else who has faced Serena Williams at Wimbledon. Every time a player puts the pressure on Serena Williams, Serena finds a way to deliver the goods and get the job done. Nobody is mentally tougher than Serena Williams, and that more than anything is why she is going to win.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news
No comments:
Post a Comment