The 2021 French Open is set to begin on Sunday now that the qualifying rounds have concluded. That means it is time for me to write my 10 things to look for as is custom with every grand slam! If you haven't yet checked out the draws, click here.
#1. Can Iga Świątek defend her title? Iga Świątek won her first grand slam title at the 2020 French Open despite coming into the event ranked #54 in the world. She became the first Polish player to win a grand slam title, putting her country on the map as well as herself. This time around, she comes in as the #9 ranked player in the world and the #8 seed in the tournament. So, there's a lot more expectations for her to do well this time around.
The interesting thing will be to see how she handles the pressure early on and whether or not she'll succumb to an early exit. A lot of players struggle out of the gates early when they seek to defend a grand slam title. Especially when it's their first time doing so. If Świątek can survive the first three rounds, she very well could be on her way to another Roland Garros title.
#2. Is Rafael Nadal destined for a 14th Roland Garros title? Rafael Nadal is the defending champion, having won 13 French Open titles overall and four in a row. Nadal is the Michael Jordan of clay tennis. The King of Clay. Whatever other superlative you wanna call him, nobody has done it better on the dirt than Nadal.
As Nadal guns for his 14th Roland Garros title, he'll also be gunning for his 21st grand slam title, which will put him ahead of Roger Federer for most grand slam titles ever. Both are tied at 20 at the moment. So, there's a lot on the line here. Personally, I got Nadal getting it done. He's the #3 seed and is coming in with a lot of confidence.
#3. Can Ashleigh Barty defend her 2019 title? It kinda feels like there are two defending champions on the women's side. There's Iga Świątek, who won the 2020 French Open and then there's Ashleigh Barty, who won the 2019 French Open, but skipped the 2020 French Open due to COVID-19 concerns. Barty comes in as the #1 ranked player in the world, so on paper, she should be the favorite to win it all. That said, we've seen her struggle at times under the pressures of being #1. Most notably at her home grand slam in Australia. How Barty does out of the gates will be interesting to see as well. It would be particularly fun to see her and Świątek face off. If that were to happen, that would happen in the semifinals as they are on the same half of the draw.
#4. How deep will Roger Federer go? Roger Federer is playing for his legacy in this tournament. As I said above, if Rafael Nadal wins it all, Federer is no longer #1 all-time in grand slam titles. Nadal will be. Now, there's of course the chance for Federer to even things up at Wimbledon and that's certainly an event that Federer has had a lot more success at. But even so, Federer can't be happy with seeing his record fall to Nadal.
As for how far Federer will go, he's slated to face #1 Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals should all things hold. And then if he were to beat Djokovic, Nadal projects to be there waiting for him in the semis. To put it simply, Federer has a tough draw. That said, Federer is an all-time great and considered by many to be the greatest ever. So if there's anyone who can rise to the occasion, it's him.
#5. Can Naomi Osaka win a non-hard court grand slam? Naomi Osaka is ranked #2 in the world and a major reason for that is her four grand slam titles: Two at the U.S. Open and two at the Australian Open. However, she has never reached the 4th round at either Wimbledon or Roland Garros. The next step for Osaka will be to contend in Paris and London and show that she's capable of winning away from the hard courts. It'll be interesting to see if she's able to make strides at this year's French Open or if she'll once again bow out early.
#6. Is this the year Dominic Thiem breaks through at Roland Garros? Dominic Thiem comes in as the #4 seed and he's also won a grand slam title (2020 U.S. Open). However, he's not been able to get over the hump at Roland Garros as he lost in the 2018 and 2019 final to Nadal. Should he reach the final again, Nadal in all likelihood will be waiting for him.
I wish I could have more confidence in Thiem to knock off Nadal, but should they face again, I do see Nadal winning. Their first meeting in the 2018 final went Nadal's way in straight sets while the 2019 final went Nadal's way in four rather decisive sets. There's a first time for everything and maybe Thiem will prove me wrong. Time will tell.
#7. Can Serena Williams make it to the second week? Serena Williams is still seeking to win her 24th grand slam title and tie Margaret Court, so that's something she's eying as she heads into this tournament. As for whether or not she'll get it done at this event, odds say it's unlikely to happen. In 2018, she lost in the 4th round; in 2019, she lost in the 3rd round; and in 2020 she lost in the 2nd round. So she's trending in the wrong direction at the moment.
That said, if Serena can find a way to avoid an early exit and make into the second week, she should be a contender. She's the #7 seed and has won the French Open three times in her career (2002, 2013, and 2015) and also reached the final in 2016. So, she's proven to be dangerous once she reaches the second week. It's just a matter of getting there that has been a challenge for her.
#8. Can Novak Djokovic win a second French Open title? Novak Djokovic comes in as the #1 ranked player in the world, seeking his 19th grand slam title and 2nd French Open title. On paper, his odds look good. However, when you learn that he's 0-4 in French Open finals against Rafael Nadal, you start to back off a bit. This year, if he were to face Nadal, it would be in the semifinals, which kinda sucks. As the #1 overall seed, you'd think they'd make him avoid Nadal until the final, but that's the nature of the draw. But anyways, Djokovic will be a major player to keep an eye on in this tournament. I do think he'll get past Federer in the quarterfinals should they meet. But, given his history with Nadal at this event, I just don't see him getting past him.
#9. Will someone knew break through on the women's side? While picking the men's winner is super easy, the same cannot be said for the women's winner. A strong case can be made for both Świątek and Barty because they are the two most recent winners. A strong can also be made for Sofia Kenin (2020) and Marketa Voundrousova (2019) as they are the most recent runners up. If one is putting money on this event, one would be wise to not stray away from those four players when making a pick. But at the same time, one cannot ignore the fact that a lot of the recent winners have seemingly come out of nowhere. Nobody saw Świątek coming in 2020 and nobody saw Jelena Ostapenko coming when she won it all in 2017.
So, it's hard to figure out whether to pick a consensus front runner or pick someone to break through and win it all. But in the spirit of not pushing and making a decision, I will pick Sofia Kenin to win it all. I think a new player will break through to win it all, but it'll be someone who has been knocking on the door. Kenin fits the description of such a player. She reached the 2020 final and won the 2020 Australian Open, so she knows what it takes to win a grand slam.
#10. Can Daniil Medvedev win a match? You might be wondering why I'm asking this question when Daniil Medvedev is the #2 ranked player in the world. The reason is because he has never gotten past the first round at Roland Garros! He is 0-4 in first round matches. You know that this is on Medvedev's mind and that he's eager to silence his critics. So, it'll be interesting to see whether or not he'll be able to win a match and build on that to formulate some sort of deep run. If he fizzles out in the first round again, it'll be very disappointing.
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