The 2022 Australian Open begins on Monday (Sunday here in the United States), which means it is time for me to write my 10 things to look for. Obviously the biggest news surrounding this year's Aussie Open has been the visa status of Novak Djokovic, who ultimately lost his appeal and will not be playing. With that now confirmed, I can more easily analyze the men's field and give a more certain prediction. If you have not checked out the draws, click here to check those out.
#1. Who will immediately benefit the most from Novak Djokovic's absence? With Novak Djokovic out of the tournament, Salvatore Caruso is replacing him as an LL (Lucky Loser). The tournament chose to initially include Djokovic in the draw as the number one seed and then when he was unable to play, they had to go to what's called a "Lucky Loser", someone who lost in the qualifiers but luckily still gets into the field thanks to someone pulling out. Djokovic's absence creates a wide open top portion of the draw with Matteo Berrettini the #7 seed now the odds on favorite in that section of the draw to reach the semifinals. We could easily see someone come out of nowhere to reach the semifinals and who knows, maybe even reach the final. With Djokovic now out, this creates a golden opportunity for someone. The question is who will make the most of it?
#2. Can Ashleigh Barty handle the home pressure this time? If you are a loyal reader of this blog, you'll know that this question gets asked in every Australian Open preview. Barty frequently comes in ranked really high and the question is can she handle the pressure of being the crowd favorite in Australia. This year is no exception as she's the #1 player in the world and thus one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win it all. The furthest she's gone at the Australian Open is the semifinals back in 2020. In 2019 and 2021 she reached the quarterfinals, so she's been knocking on the door. Now it's a matter of her finishing the job. Can she do it under the spotlight of being the Aussie favorite? History says she won't, but maybe this year will be different.
#3. Can Casper Ruud make a run? Casper Ruud is ranked #8 in the world out of Norway and yet for whatever reason he hasn't been able to make deep runs in grand slams. He's never reached the quarterfinals of a grand slam and the lone 4th round appearance he made was at the 2021 Australian Open. I would like to see him at least reach the quarterfinals this time and back up his ranking a bit. He's a guy who nobody talks about despite his high ranking because he never goes far in the slams. Let's see if he can change that this year.
#4. Can Naomi Osaka defend her title as a double-digit seed? Naomi Osaka comes into the tournament as the #13 player in the world, which means she's a double-digit seed. She won the tournament last year, but this year poses a new challenge for her as she's not ranked in the top three coming in. That's going to give her a tougher draw out of the chute and not give her the same advantages she'd have if she were #1 or #2. Women's tennis is pretty fluid so in that sense it's not a huge deal what her seed is. Still, that being said, it'll be interesting to see if Osaka is able to outperform her ranking and make a serious run at the title.
#5. Can Rafael Nadal get over the hump? Rafael Nadal has a golden opportunity in front of him with Djokovic unable to go and Roger Federer not playing. If Nadal wins the Australian Open he'll stand alone with the most grand slam titles ever on the men's side, breaking a three way tie he has with Federer and Djokovic who are also at 20. However, Nadal's lone Australian Open title came back in 2009, so it's been a while since he won this. If he were to win this event, it would probably be the most incredible grand slam title of his entire career.
#6. Can Aryna Sabalenka back up her ranking? Aryna Sabalenka comes in as the #2 ranked player in the world and yet has never reached a grand slam final. She did reach back-to-back semis at Wimbledon and the US Open, but she still has to prove that she's as good as her ranking says she is. The furthest she's gone at the Australian Open is the 4th round, so this will be a good chance for her to show that she's made progress from last year.
#7. Can Daniil Medvedev finish the job? Daniil Medvedev is #2 in the world and is coming off a 2021 US Open championship. He reached the final of the Australian Open last year and with Djokovic out of the picture, smart money picks him to go all the way. It'll be interesting to see if Medvedev can win a second consecutive slam and kick off 2022 in style. His game is well suited for hard court and he should be feeling confident.
#8. How will Emma Raducanu perform? Emma Raducanu won the 2021 US Open and is ranked #18 in the world as a result. The 19 year old Brit has a bright future in front of her and there's no reason to doubt her abilities to win more slams in the future. That said, it's always interesting to see how first time slam winners do in their next slam appearance. A lot of them don't do so well. If Raducanu can make a run to the quarterfinals or better, that'll be really impressive.
#9. What will Nick Kyrgios do? Nick Kyrgios always seems to find a way to make headlines Down Under given that he is in fact an Aussie. It would be fun if he made a bit of a run in this tournament and surprised people. For all his antics, he is fun to watch and brings more flair and personality to the sport. Hopefully he shocks the world a bit and reaches the 4th round or further.
#10. Can Sofia Kenin win it again? Sofia Kenin comes in as the #13 ranked player in the world and the #11 overall seed. She won the Australian Open back in 2020 but lost in the 2nd round in 2021. She's got the pieces to go all the way, but after last year's tournament, I might be a bit reluctant to buy too much of her stock. This year will tell us a lot about her and her resiliency after having a disappointing outing in 2021.
Prediction: I'm doing something new here by not weaving my prediction into the 10 things to look for. That way I can cover a bit more ground here. On the men's side, I'm going to pick Daniil Medvedev to go all the way. He should be favored and after winning the US Open, he has to feel confident in his abilities to win it all. However, like Raducanu, he too could succumb to the pressures that come with being a new grand slam champion. I guess I like his chances better than Raducanu because his ranking is more solid and he's got more of a body of work up to this point.
On the women's side, I'm going to pick Garbiñe Muguruza. I did not mention her in my 10 things to look for, but that doesn't mean I don't like her chances. I think she'll win it all. She's #3 in the world, reached the Australian Open final in 2020, and of the top five seeds on the women's side, she's the one who I have the most faith in at the end of the day. Especially with Serena Williams not being in the field.
To connect with ATP Guy on Twitter, click here.
To connect with ATP Guy on Facebook, click here.
To connect with Ben Parker, click here.
