The Australian Open begins on Monday and it is time for me to provide my list of 10 things to look for in the first grand slam of the 2018 season. Enjoy!
#1. Can Novak Djokovic make a deep run? Over the years, the Australian Open has been Novak Djokovic's favorite grand slam, so it stands to reason that he's a serious contender once again. However, he's been hampered with an elbow injury and comes in as the #14 seed. I think Djokovic is your dark horse to win this event, but I definitely wouldn't call him the favorite either. I think this is a case where he either goes really far or he flames out early. If he finds himself in the quarterfinals, I think he should be considered a real threat to go all the way. Whether or not he can survive the early rounds and get into a groove is the big question.
#2. Can Simona Halep back up her #1 ranking? Simona Halep comes into this event in a rather unique situation. She's the #1 ranked player in the world but has never won a grand slam. How a player can be a #1 ranked player without a grand slam title is beyond me and a discussion for another time, but it is suffice to say that so long as she remains without a grand slam title, her #1 ranking will seem hollow. What hurts Halep is that the Australian Open has been her least successful grand slam. The furthest she's gone in this event is the quarterfinals (2014 and 2015). If she's able to break through and win her first grand slam at this event, that would be really impressive and could be the sign of a breakthrough 2018 season.
#3. Can Stan Wawrinka recapture the grand slam magic? Stan Wawrinka hasn't won a grand slam since the 2016 US Open and his lone Australian Open title came in 2014. That's four years ago. As an added reason for skepticism, Wawrinka was questionable to play in this event due to having knee surgery in August. That all said, he has won this event before and knows what it takes to win a grand slam. Don't sleep on Wawrinka. I know I called Djokovic my dark horse, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see Wawrinka playing in the final of this event.
#4. If Simona Halep doesn't breakthrough, could it be Caroline Wozniacki? Caroline Wozniacki is in a similar situation as Simona Halep. She's the #2 ranked player in the world and is yet to win a grand slam. She knows what Halep is going through as she's previously been ranked #1. I'm not holding my breath for either player to win it all down under, but given that this is a light field with no Serena Williams or Victoria Azarenka, it is conceivable that Halep and Wozniacki meet in the final. It would be absolutely fascinating to see what happens if that were to actually happen.
#5. Can Dominic Thiem back up his #5 ranking? Dominic Thiem is the #5 ranked player in the world but has only gotten past the 4th round at one grand slam (French Open semifinals twice). Judging by his ranking, one would expect Thiem to make the quarterfinals or possibly semifinals, but history tells us it's no slam dunk he gets that far. If Thiem flames out early, a lot of people will rightly question the validity of his lofty ranking.
#6. Should Garbiñe Muguruza be favored? While she's #3 in the world rankings, Garbiñe Muguruza has two grand slam titles under her belt, which is good reason to consider her the favorite at this year's Australian Open. The only reason I hesitate to dub her the favorite is her lack of success at hard court grand slams. Both of her grand slam titles came at the French Open (2016) and Wimbledon (2017) and the furthest she's gone at a hard court grand slam is the quarterfinals at the 2017 Australian Open. I like her chances to win because of who's ranked higher than her, but calling her the favorite feels like a bit of a stretch.
#7. Can Rafael Nadal win his second Australian Open title? When you look back at Rafael Nadal's career, it's incredible that he's won the Australian Open only once and that was back in 2009. Nadal comes into this event as the #1 ranked player in the world and favored to meet #2 Roger Federer in the final. Considering that he lost to Federer in five sets last year in the final, I think Nadal has an excellent chance to win this event. Health is obviously a big factor as Nadal has been dealing with a knee injury. He insists his knee is fine, but that'll still be something to monitor over the course of the event.
#8. How dangerous is Maria Sharapova? Maria Sharapova is barley ranked inside the top 50, but when you consider the lack of Australian Open success among the top three players, it's really not all that crazy to think she might win this. While she hasn't won the event since 2008, she's at least won it before and is really playing with house money considering that her ranking is down. Considering the low expectations and the fact that she's still capable of playing at a top-ten level, you have to consider Maria Sharapova your dark horse to win it all.
#9. Can Roger Federer repeat? Roger Federer comes into this event as the defending champion and the #2 ranked player in the world. Considering that he's still on top of his game and appears capable of playing for several more years, I have to dub Federer the favorite. He's got a pretty favorable draw and seems to be pretty confident about his chances. The only player to keep an eye on in his half of the draw is #12 Juan Martin Del Potro, who knows how to play on the hard courts and is eager to make some noise at a grand slam.
#10. Will an American win the women's title? #5 Venus Williams, #13 Sloane Stephens, and #17 Madison Keys are the highest ranked Americans in this event. Saying I think one of these three will win it all wouldn't be much of a prediction, but if you are an American rooting for Team USA, you have to like the Americans' chances in this one. All three excel on the hard courts and are playing at an elite level. If I had to make a prediction on who wins it all, I would have to roll with Sloane Stephens. She won the 2017 US Open and appears to be poised for more grand slam titles in the future.
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