(Credit: Kate. Click here for a link to the source)
The 2015 French Open Women's final is Saturday at 9:00 AM ET on NBC and it features one player who many are familiar with and another who few would have expected to still be standing. The familiar player is Serena Williams, who is #1 in the world and seeking her 20th grand slam title, while the underdog is Lucie Safarova, who came into this tournament ranked #13 in the world.
If the head-to-head series between these two players gives us any indication of what will happen in this match, we can assume that Serena Williams will win going away. Serena Williams has won all eight of her matches against Lucie Safarova while only dropping three sets. As Brad Gilbert likes to say, it's been "one way traffic" for Serena Williams.
Despite Serena's dominance against her, Safarova does have reason to maintain some hope. The biggest thing going in Safarova's favor is health. Serena Williams has been battling the flu and isn't at full strength. If Serena gets off to a slow start and isn't feeling well, Safarova will have a chance to pounce and pull off the upset.
Secondly, Serena Williams has dropped the first set in four of her six matches in the tournament. Safarova definitely has to like her odds of winning the first set given this recent trend and further, she has to feel like if she does get the first set, the odds that Serena is able to come back from a one set hole for a fifth time are remote given that historically, Serena only wins half of the grand slam matches in which she drops the first set.
Third, Safarova defeated #2 ranked Maria Sharapova 7-6, 6-4 in the 4th round after Maria had won the French Open in 2014 and 2012. Maria Sharapova has been the best clay court player in the women's game over the last few years. Safarova has to believe that if she can beat Maria Sharapova on clay, she can beat Serena Williams on clay, too. Especially since clay is the one surface that Serena Williams has historically struggled on.
That all being said, I'm still picking Serena Williams to win this match in straight sets and capture her 20th career grand slam title. She is by far the best women's tennis player in the world and in my opinion the greatest female player ever. She dominates in a way that we've never seen any other woman dominate and there isn't much anybody can do. In addition, Serena's 8-0 record against Lucie Safarova speaks for itself. If Safarova hasn't beaten Serena in eight tries, why should we think the ninth time will be the charm?
Plus, while Serena Williams has only reached the final at Roland Garros twice, her record in the final at Roland Garros is 2-0. What this indicates is that if you are going to beat Serena at Roland Garros, you have to beat her early in the tournament. The more matches Serena Williams wins at Roland Garros, the more confident she becomes. If Safarova were facing Serena in the 4th round or even the Quarterfinals, she would have a much better chance of winning. But because she is facing Serena in the final, her chances drop significantly.
(Credit: Kate. Click here for a link)
I don't want to diminish the things that Safarova has in her favor. She has plenty of reasons to feel confident in her ability to win this championship. It's just that when you are picking sides between a 19-time grand slam champion and a player who has never played in a grand slam final, you pick the 19-time grand slam champion every time.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy for tennis news
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