With the BNP Paribas Open (a.k.a. Indian Wells Open) already underway in Palm Springs, California, I thought I would share 10 things to look for in what many people dub the "Fifth Grand Slam." This is an ATP & WTA 1000 event. Click here to check out the draws. Ok, let's get after it!
#1. Can Jannik Sinner win his first Indian Wells title? Jannik Sinner is still in search of his first title at Indian Wells. After reaching the semifinals in 2023 and 2024, he did not play the event in 2025. This time, he comes in as the No. 2 ranked player in the world with No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz on the opposite side of the draw. At some point, Sinner is bound to win an Indian Wells title. The only question is when. After not reaching the Australian Open final, he should feel a bit of extra motivation coming into this event. Perhaps that extra fuel will make the difference.
#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka win her first Indian Wells title? World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is also in search of her first Indian Wells title. She's a two-time finalist, but so far has not been able to get over the hump in the final. Also like Sinner, she should be coming in with an extra chip on her shoulder after not winning the Australian Open. A title at Indian Wells would be a nice message for Sabalenka to send to the rest of the WTA Tour that she's still the top hard court player in the world.
#3. How deep of a run can Daniil Medvedev make? Coming in as the No. 11 ranked player in the world, Daniil Medvedev has never won Indian Wells before and his lone grand slam title at the 2021 US Open with each passing year is further and further in the rear view mirror. At 30 years of age, on paper he's a guy that should still be in the mix to win grand slams and big time tournaments. If he could make a deep run at Indian Wells to the semis or final, that would be massive for him. Heck, even a run to the quarterfinals would be nice for him. If you want to talk about a dark horse on the men's side for this tournament, I think Medvedev is your guy.
#4. Can Coco Gauff win her first Indian Wells title? In case you aren't already catching onto my theme here, world No. 4 Coco Gauff is another player in search of her first Indian Wells title. She reached the semifinals back in 2024, but that is the furthest she has gone. It'll be fun to see how deep she goes and whether or not she can go the distance. If she does, that would be a huge boon for her heading into the spring.
#5. Can Jack Draper defend his title? The defending champion on the men's side is world No. 15 Jack Draper, who defeated Holger Rune in the final 6-2, 6-2. While the odds are stacked against him given the depth of the field, Draper should have some confidence given what happened last year. World No. 3 Novak Djokovic is projected to be waiting for him in the Round of 16. If Draper could somehow upset Djokovic, anything could happen going forward.
#6. Can Mirra Andreeva defend her title? On the women's side, world No. 8 Mirra Andreeva is the defending champion, defeating Sabalenka in the final 2-6, 6-4, 6-3. Andreeva was 17 years old at the time and became the youngest champion at the event since 1999. Given she defeated Sabalenka in the final last year, she should be feeling confident going into this year's tournament. It'll be fun to see what kind of tennis Andreeva plays and how much she threatens do defend her crown.
#7. Can Novak Djokovic break Roger Federer's record? On the men's side, world No. 3 Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer each have a record five titles at Indian Wells. If Djokovic could win a sixth, he'd be all alone in first place. Given how important of a tournament Indian Wells is, holding the record would mean a lot to Djokovic. As for when he won his five titles, Djokovic won in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016. So, it's been a full decade since he won his last one. If Djokovic is able to get his sixth Indian Wells title 10 years later, what a headline that would be!
#8. Can Elena Rybakina build on her Australian Open title to win at Indian Wells again? World No. 3 Elena Rybakina is coming in with some momentum having won the Australian Open earlier this year. She also won Indian Wells back in 2023, defeating Sabalenka in the final 7-6, 6-4. She's won this tournament before and did so beating the best of the best. If Rybakina can find a way to win Indian Wells this year, she'll really be heading into the spring with a spring in her step. Pun intended!
#9. Can Carlos Alcaraz build on his Australian Open title to win at Indian Wells? World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz won the Australian Open this year and also has two Indian Wells titles under his belt in 2023 and 2024. He should be feeling confident in his abilities to go the distance this year. What helps him out a bit is having Djokovic/Draper/Sinner on the other half the draw. The perks of being the top seed! In the Round of 16, Alcaraz should he advance would likely face No. 13 Casper Ruud, who he has a 5-1 record against. Honestly, it will be a surprise if Alcaraz doesn't at least make the final. The draw really is pretty nice for him.
#10. Can Iga Swiatek win a third Indian Wells title? World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is gunning for a third Indian Wells title. She won it back in 2022 and 2024. Given her lone hard court grand slam title is at the 2022 US Open, it actually would be good for Swiatek to win this title if she has hopes of winning the US Open this year. Winning on hard court is still something she needs to get more comfortable doing, especially at the grand slam level. I'll be interested to see how she does in this event.
Prediction: On the men's side, I'll roll with Novak Djokovic to come out on top. I think in three set matches, his stamina can hold up better and he'll have that extra motivation of surpassing Federer to win his sixth Indian Wells title. As for the women's side, I'll roll with Elena Rybakina. She just won the Australian Open and has won this event before. I think picking her to win the women's title is sound.
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