10 things to look for at 2025 BNP Paribas Open | Indian Wells

 

                                             (Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images) 

The 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California is underway. I would like to provide my list of 10 things to look for at this year's event, which is often dubbed the 5th grand slam. To check out the draws, click here. 

#1. Can Taylor Fritz bounce back from his disappointing Australian Open? Taylor Fritz comes in as the No. 3 seed and No. 4 player in the world on the men's side. He did not have a particularly strong Australian Open as he went down in the 3rd round, meaning he needs to bounce back and not let that result linger. The good news for Fritz is he's won Indian Wells before back in 2022 and being from Southern California, he basically has home court advantage. If there's an event for Fritz to bounce back at, this is the one. How he does could be very telling for how the rest of his 2025 season will go. 

#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka win her first Indian Wells title and reestablish hard court dominance? Aryna Sabalenka comes in ranked No. 1 in the world and the top hard court player in the women's game. In this year's Australian Open, Sabalenka fell to Madison Keys in the final, unable to win her third straight Australian Open title and third straight hard court grand slam. Sabalenka seems fired up to win this event and remind the WTA tour that she's the best on the hard court surface. She also hasn't won this event before, reaching the final in 2023 where she lost to Elena Rybakina. So that's probably a big source of her motivation for winning. It'll be fun to see if she can go the distance. 

#3. Can Novak Djokovic prove he's still got it? I think there are some questions about whether or not Novak Djokovic still has what it takes to win more grand slams. Personally, I think he does, but it would be huge for him to win at Indian Wells just to give himself some momentum after losing in the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. Djokovic has won Indian Wells five times, so he knows what it takes to win it. But, he hasn't won since 2016. It would be pretty cool if he won a sixth Indian Wells title. That would break the tie he has with Roger Federer, who also won five Indian Wells titles (tied for most all-time). 

#4. Can Madison Keys build on her Australian Open success? Madison Keys won her first grand slam at the Australian Open earlier this year, knocking off Aryna Sabalenka. It'll be interesting to see how Keys does at Indian Wells. She comes in as the No. 5 seed and thus should be in the mix to win the tournament. That said, she has never won this tournament nor has she reached the final. If she were to win this, that would really be sending a message to the rest of the WTA. 

#5. Can Ben Shelton make a run? Ben Shelton is coming into this tournament with some momentum having reached the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. That was his second grand slam semifinal appearance (2023 US Open). He's the No. 11 seed in the tournament and shown an ability to get hot on the hard courts. If you want to talk a dark horse in this tournament to at least make a semifinal run, Shelton is absolutely a guy who could challenge. I look forward to seeing how this tournament goes for him. 

#6. Can Coco Gauff win her first Indian Wells title? Coco Gauff comes in as the No. 3 seed and thus a favorite to at least reach the semifinals. She lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year, which was a bit disappointing for her since she's trying to win multiple grand slams after winning her first grand slam at the 2023 US Open. She's won a couple of WTA 1000 titles, but an Indian Wells title still eludes her. She did reach the semifinals last year, so she's certainly knocking on the door. Perhaps this will be the year she breaks through. 

#7. Will Alexander Zverev back up his seed? Alexander Zverev is the No. 2 ranked player in the world, but with Jannik Sinner serving a suspension for doping, Zverev is the No. 1 seed in the tournament. The question is will it matter? The furthest Zverev has gone at Indian Wells is the quarterfinals last year. Perhaps this will be the year that finally changes. If he could win this tournament, that would be a huge boost to his confidence heading into Miami where he reached the final back in 2022. 

#8. Can Paula Badosa win her second Indian Wells title? Paula Badosa comes in as the No. 11 seed, fresh off a run to the semifinals of the Australian Open. She also won this event back in 2021, so she knows what it takes to win it all. If you want to pick a dark horse on the women's side, Paula Badosa would be a pretty good pick. Don't be surprised if she threatens to win it all this year. 

#9. Will we get another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? Carlos Alcaraz comes in as the No. 2 seed, ranked No. 3 in the world while Daniil Medvedev comes in as the No. 5 seed, ranked No. 6 in the world. The last two years, they've met in the final with Alcaraz getting the better of Medvedev. A big question coming into this year's tournament is will we see another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? They're both on opposite sides of the draw, so it's totally possible. If we do, will Alcaraz win his third straight Indian Wells title or will Medvedev break through? If not, who will knock these guys off? 

#10. Can Iga Świątek defend her title? Iga Świątek comes in as the No. 2 seed on the women's side, ranked No. 2 in the world. She's the defending champion at this event and has won it twice, so she knows how to get it done. If she does reach the final, odds are good Aryna Sabalenka will be there. All I can say is what a fun match that would be! If Świątek is to defend her title, she's certainly going to have to earn it. This won't be an easy draw. It never is at Indian Wells. 

Prediction: I'm going to say Alexander Zverev breaks through to win his first Indian Wells title on the men's side. If he doesn't win it this year, he probably never will. As for the women's side, I'm gonna roll with Coco Gauff. I expect her to play well and feed off the energy that will come with being the top ranked American. I look forward to seeing how the tournament goes and who ends up winning it all. 

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Will Masters Titles In Miami and Indian Wells get Novak Djokovic Back On Track?

                                                    (Image from: espn.go.com) 

It has been a while since Novak Djokovic last won a grand slam title, at least for his standards anyways. Djokovic's last grand slam title was the 2013 Australian Open, and since then he has failed to win a grand slam. During the course of that time,  Rafael Nadal once again defended his French Open crown and also won the US Open, Andy Murray finally won Wimbledon, and Stanislas Wawrinka came out of nowhere to win the Australian Open. With the resurgence of Nadal, the feel-good story of a Brit winning Wimbledon, and Stanislas Wawrinka's shocking success down under, it is easy for us to forget about Novak Djokovic. While we still are a ways away from the next grand slam (French Open), Novak Djokovic's recent success at the last two ATP World Tour Masters events in Indian Wells, CA and Key Biscayne, FL is his way of reminding the tennis world that he still is a force to be reckoned with.
     To win the BNP Paribas Masters at Indian Wells, Djokovic defeated Roger Federer in the final and to win the Sony Open at Key Biscayne, he defeated Rafael Nadal in the final. Those are two of the toughest opponents he has to beat all year, and for him to beat them in back-to-back events is sending a pretty strong message to the rest of the tour. Look, I'm in the minority when it comes to valuing tournaments not called "Grand Slams". I don't hold them to nearly as much value as other people do, but I do think the Masters events can be important for guys who are trying to find their groove again. For Djokovic, if he wants to get back to winning grand slams and win at least one in 2014, he has to start somewhere to build up his confidence, and winning both Masters titles at Key Biscayne and Indian Wells is a great start!

In my opinion, these two Masters titles is definitely something to take note of. I think that for him to win both events is a very encouraging sign for Djokovic and his fans that he is gearing up to go on another dominating run. While I don't see this translating into a French Open title or anything since these two events are on hard court, I do see these two Masters titles potentially translating into success at Wimbledon and the US Open. Obviously, if Novak Djokovic doesn't win a grand slam this year, these two titles will mean almost nothing, but if goes on to win a grand slam this year, I think it is more than reasonable to look back at these two Masters titles as the catalyst that got him back on track to winning more Grand Slams.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy 

Indian Wells Preview

                                                     (image from: usta.com)

The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, an ATP Masters 1000 event/WTA Premiere event kicks off this week, with Round 1 action already done. However, with none of the seeded players playing yet, there is still time for me to break down this tournament and give you some key things to look for over these next 10 days.

1. What Does Roger Federer's Win At Dubai Really Mean? 
Roger Federer is coming into Indian Wells having just won the title in Dubai, which included a win over Novak Djokovic. Naturally, Federer fans were ecstatic with his win over Djokovic, many saying "Fed's back!" and other over-the-top statements that any tried and true Federer fan would say. While I think the win over Djokovic is a good sign, I'm not at all convinced that it is an indicator that he will win another slam or something along those lines. However, what happens down in Indian Wells to Federer could give us a better sense of what that victory actually wins. If Federer were to win the event and beat Djokovic again, then we could maybe look back at the Dubai win over Djokovic as a spring board to launch Federer into a successful 2014 campaign. If Federer falters and either loses to Djokovic in the Final or loses in earlier rounds, then his success at Dubai will likely be interpreted as a nice week for Federer but nothing to use as a barometer for his future success.

2. Can Sabine Lisicki Get It Together On Hard Court? 

We all know Sabine Lisicki is a threat at Wimbledon, but she hasn't yet proven she is a threat to win a grand slam elsewhere. While winning this event isn't likely for her, I do think that Sabine Lisicki is a player who could take tremendous confidence with her for the rest of the season if she put forth a solid outing at Indian Wells. If she reaches the the Semis at this event, which is possible, she should like her odds at making a run at a slam not called Wimbledon later this year.

3. Will Stanislas Wawrinka Back Up His Australian Open Title? 

I don't mean to say this as any sort of implication that his title at the Australian Open wasn't legit, but I do think a win for Wawrinka at Indian Wells would give the rest of the ATP Tour a real scare going forward into the rest of the season. Winning at Indian Wells could do a lot for Stanislas Wawrinka to show that his title down under wasn't just the product of a great two weeks or Nadal's back, but rather the result of his fantastic play.

4. No Serena Williams Doesn't Mean There Isn't Anything To Be Learned On The Women's Draw

The Williams sisters once again boycott the event after being subject to racial prejudice at the event more than a decade ago. While the absence of the Williams sisters, specifically Serena is a letdown every year, don't think that this diminishes the achievements of whoever wins this event or that there isn't something to take away from these 10 days.

5. Watch For The Health Of Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal

With both Murray and Nadal battling back problems recently,  this event should give us a good sense of how both guys are feeling health wise. Hopefully both guys can feel healthy enough to contend and possibly win.

6. Maria Sharapova Needs To Win A Big Event And She Might As Well Start Here

Despite all her off the court success with Sugarpova and her love life with Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov, Maria Sharapova has struggled against the likes of Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka on the hard courts. Serena isn't playing for reasons previously explained, but Azarenka is, and if Sharapova could beat her in the process of winning this whole event, that would be really good for Sharapova.

7. Will Any Men Take Inspiration From Wawrinka? 

After seeing Stanislas Wawrinka win the Australian Open, there has to be a greater sense of hope among guys not listed in the "Big Four" that winning a grand slam is possible. While Indian Wells isn't a grand slam, it is the next best thing. It'll be interesting to see if guys like Del Potro, Tsonga, and Berdych take inspiration from Wawrinka and run the table to win the whole thing.

8. Petra Kvitova Needs A Wake Up Call

Ever since winning Wimbledon, Petra Kvitova has slowly receded into the background of the WTA tour and hasn't proven that she isn't a one slam wonder. She can't get rid of that reputation at Indian Wells of course, but a win at this event could propel her to success at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

9. Novak Djokovic Can't Really Do Much To Improve His Stock 

Some guys could do a lot to improve their stock and status at this event, but others can't. I don't really see a win at this event giving Djokovic a huge boost, and nor do I see him failing to win a crisis either. Novak has his eyes on Roland Garros, which is really his next big test. The Masters events leading up to Roland Garros will matter to Djokovic way more than Indian Wells.

10. Winning At Indian Wells Would Be Nice For Na Li, But It Won't Be A Big Deal If She Has  A Rough Outing 

Don't expect Na Li to struggle, but if she does, don't freak out and think the end for her is near. She just won the Australian Open and seems prime for a great 2014 regardless of what happens at Indian Wells. She can't do much to improve her stock at this event and her stock won't really go down too much if she struggles or gets bounced early.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy