ATPGuy.com : March 2025

Thursday, March 6, 2025

10 things to look for at 2025 BNP Paribas Open | Indian Wells

(Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images)

The 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California is underway. I would like to provide my list of 10 things to look for at this year's event, which is often dubbed the 5th grand slam. To check out the draws, click here.

#1. Can Taylor Fritz bounce back from his disappointing Australian Open? Taylor Fritz comes in as the No. 3 seed and No. 4 player in the world on the men's side. He did not have a particularly strong Australian Open as he went down in the 3rd round, meaning he needs to bounce back and not let that result linger. The good news for Fritz is he's won Indian Wells before back in 2022 and being from Southern California, he basically has home court advantage. If there's an event for Fritz to bounce back at, this is the one. How he does could be very telling for how the rest of his 2025 season will go.

#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka win her first Indian Wells title and reestablish hard court dominance? Aryna Sabalenka comes in ranked No. 1 in the world and the top hard court player in the women's game. In this year's Australian Open, Sabalenka fell to Madison Keys in the final, unable to win her third straight Australian Open title and third straight hard court grand slam. Sabalenka seems fired up to win this event and remind the WTA tour that she's the best on the hard court surface. She also hasn't won this event before, reaching the final in 2023 where she lost to Elena Rybakina. So that's probably a big source of her motivation for winning. It'll be fun to see if she can go the distance.

#3. Can Novak Djokovic prove he's still got it? I think there are some questions about whether or not Novak Djokovic still has what it takes to win more grand slams. Personally, I think he does, but it would be huge for him to win at Indian Wells just to give himself some momentum after losing in the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. Djokovic has won Indian Wells five times, so he knows what it takes to win it. But, he hasn't won since 2016. It would be pretty cool if he won a sixth Indian Wells title. That would break the tie he has with Roger Federer, who also won five Indian Wells titles (tied for most all-time).

#4. Can Madison Keys build on her Australian Open success? Madison Keys won her first grand slam at the Australian Open earlier this year, knocking off Aryna Sabalenka. It'll be interesting to see how Keys does at Indian Wells. She comes in as the No. 5 seed and thus should be in the mix to win the tournament. That said, she has never won this tournament nor has she reached the final. If she were to win this, that would really be sending a message to the rest of the WTA.

#5. Can Ben Shelton make a run? Ben Shelton is coming into this tournament with some momentum having reached the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. That was his second grand slam semifinal appearance (2023 US Open). He's the No. 11 seed in the tournament and shown an ability to get hot on the hard courts. If you want to talk a dark horse in this tournament to at least make a semifinal run, Shelton is absolutely a guy who could challenge. I look forward to seeing how this tournament goes for him.

#6. Can Coco Gauff win her first Indian Wells title? Coco Gauff comes in as the No. 3 seed and thus a favorite to at least reach the semifinals. She lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year, which was a bit disappointing for her since she's trying to win multiple grand slams after winning her first grand slam at the 2023 US Open. She's won a couple of WTA 1000 titles, but an Indian Wells title still eludes her. She did reach the semifinals last year, so she's certainly knocking on the door. Perhaps this will be the year she breaks through.

#7. Will Alexander Zverev back up his seed? Alexander Zverev is the No. 2 ranked player in the world, but with Jannik Sinner serving a suspension for doping, Zverev is the No. 1 seed in the tournament. The question is will it matter? The furthest Zverev has gone at Indian Wells is the quarterfinals last year. Perhaps this will be the year that finally changes. If he could win this tournament, that would be a huge boost to his confidence heading into Miami where he reached the final back in 2022.

#8. Can Paula Badosa win her second Indian Wells title? Paula Badosa comes in as the No. 11 seed, fresh off a run to the semifinals of the Australian Open. She also won this event back in 2021, so she knows what it takes to win it all. If you want to pick a dark horse on the women's side, Paula Badosa would be a pretty good pick. Don't be surprised if she threatens to win it all this year.

#9. Will we get another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? Carlos Alcaraz comes in as the No. 2 seed, ranked No. 3 in the world while Daniil Medvedev comes in as the No. 5 seed, ranked No. 6 in the world. The last two years, they've met in the final with Alcaraz getting the better of Medvedev. A big question coming into this year's tournament is will we see another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? They're both on opposite sides of the draw, so it's totally possible. If we do, will Alcaraz win his third straight Indian Wells title or will Medvedev break through? If not, who will knock these guys off?

#10. Can Iga Świątek defend her title? Iga Świątek comes in as the No. 2 seed on the women's side, ranked No. 2 in the world. She's the defending champion at this event and has won it twice, so she knows how to get it done. If she does reach the final, odds are good Aryna Sabalenka will be there. All I can say is what a fun match that would be! If Świątek is to defend her title, she's certainly going to have to earn it. This won't be an easy draw. It never is at Indian Wells.

Prediction: I'm going to say Alexander Zverev breaks through to win his first Indian Wells title on the men's side. If he doesn't win it this year, he probably never will. As for the women's side, I'm gonna roll with Coco Gauff. I expect her to play well and feed off the energy that will come with being the top ranked American. I look forward to seeing how the tournament goes and who ends up winning it all.

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Sunday, March 2, 2025

10 things to take away from the 2025 Australian Open

(Credit: Mark Avelino/Anadolu via Getty Images)

With the 2025 Australian Open now in the rearview mirror, I would like to share my 10 things to take away from the two weeks that were Down Under.

#1. Jannik Sinner has an iron grip on the world number one: By winning his third grand slam title overall and three straight hard court grand slam titles, Jannik Sinner is without a doubt the top men's player in the world. He'll miss a bit of time (through May 4th) due to a WADA ban for testing positive for Clostebol, but he'll be back in time for the French Open and the remaining grand slams. The big thing for him is to figure out how to win grand slams on clay and grass, but given that hard courts are where most of the action is at, he should remain the top player in the world for the foreseeable future so long as he stays healthy and doesn't get banned again for a future doping offense.

#2. Madison Keys has proven she can win a grand slam: By winning her first grand slam title, Madison Keys has proven she can win a grand slam. Her only other grand slam final appearance was back in 2017 at the US Open, so it's pretty amazing she found a way to win a grand slam all these years later. Of course, now the question is whether or not she can break through to win a few more grand slams, but regardless, she can now say she is a grand slam champion.

#3. Alexander Zverev is knocking on the door: Alexander Zverev reached his third career grand slam final and first Australian Open final, losing to Jannik Sinner in straight sets. At 27 years of age (turning 28 next month), Zverev can certainly take inspiration from Madison Keys. While I'm not sure if Zverev will ever be a multiple grand slam winner, I do think at some point he'll break through and win one. Especially since one of his grand slam finals came at Roland Garros in 2024. His ability to play on the clay is definitely a boost to his chances.

#4. Aryna Sabalenka is beatable on the hard court: Aryna Sabalenka came in as the heavy favorite on the women's side having won back-to-back Australian Open titles as well as the 2024 US Open title. She's the best hard court player in the world and yet she wasn't able to defeat Madison Keys in the final, who won 6-3, 2-6, 7-5. This tournament showed the rest of the WTA tour that Sabalenka is beatable on the hard courts. It'll be interesting to see how she bounces back in the upcoming hard court swing.

#5. Ben Shelton continues to make strides: 22 year old Ben Shelton had a nice run to the semifinals of the Australian Open before going down to Jannik Sinner in straight sets. Shelton has now reached two grand slam semifinals (2023 US Open) and appears poised to soon reach his first grand slam final. It'll be fun to see how the rest of the season goes for Shelton and what kind of impact he makes on the upcoming hard court swing as well as the US Open later this year.

#6. Iga Swiatek needs to figure out the hard courts: Even though she's won a hard court grand slam at the 2022 US Open, it's clear that Iga Swiatek still needs to crack the code on the hard courts. She lost in the semifinals to Madison Keys in her second trip to the Australian Open semifinals (2022). She also has reached only three semifinals at hard court grand slams in total, which obviously includes her US Open title. This year's Australian Open was another reminder that while she's of course competitive on hard courts, she still has work to do if she wants to start winning multiple slams on the surface.

#7. The end could be coming soon for Novak Djokovic: The last of the "Big Four" that's still standing, Novak Djokovic fell to Alexander Zverev in the semifinals 6-7, ret. due to a muscle tear. He hasn't won a grand slam title since the 2023 US Open and with the Australian Open being his best event (10 titles), if he's coming up short in that event, it's fair to wonder if the end is near for Djokovic. He's 37 years old and Father Time catches up with everyone. That said, he's still ranked in the top 10 at No. 7 in the world and probably has another grand slam title or two in him. Still, this year's Australian Open was a reminder that Djokovic's best days are behind him and that it won't be too long before he retires.

#8. Paul Badosa finally reaches a grand slam semifinal: Paula Badosa finally reached her first career grand slam semifinal, losing to Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets. At 27 years of age, it's possible Badosa's best tennis is still in front of her. This year will tell us a lot about about whether or not the best is yet to come or if this run to the semifinals is where she's gonna peak.

#9. Taylor Fritz needs to bounce back: Ranked No. 4 in the world, Taylor Fritz is the highest ranked American, who came into the Australian Open with a lot of hope after his run to the US Open final. Unfortunately, he went down in the 3rd round to Gaël Monfils. If Fritz wants to maintain his top ten ranking going forward, he's going to have to get back to work after such an early exit at the Australian Open. On paper, he's the best hope the United States has to break their men's grand slam drought, but after how things went Down Under, one can't help but have their doubts. He needs to put those doubts to rest fast.

#10. Coco Gauff needs to figure out the Australian Open: Coco Gauff fell in the quarterfinals, which was not what she was hoping to have happen as she came in with championship hopes. Last year's run to the semifinals is the furthest she's gone at the Australian Open. It's clear that she has to figure out how to go deeper in this tournament. It'll be interesting to see if she'll be able to crack that code. Especially since her lone grand slam title is on the hard courts at the US Open in 2023.