Can anyone stop Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open?

 

                                             (Credit: Mike Frey/USA TODAY Sports) 

On the men's side, my pick to win it all at the start of the Australian Open was world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. That pick is looking good so far as Sinner has advanced into the quarterfinals where he will face No. 8 Alex de Minaur of Australia. In my previous blog post, I wrote about whether or not anyone on the women's side can stop Aryna Sabalenka (click here to read that) and now I am asking the same question about Sinner. Can anyone on the men's side stop him? 

Sinner has had a pretty smooth run to the quarterfinals, dropping only two sets. He dropped the opening set in his 2nd round match against wild card Tristan Schoolkate (4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3) and also dropped the second set in his most recent win over No. 13 Holger Rune (6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2). That honestly isn't much resistance. 

Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, Sinner is 9-0 all-time against de Minaur if you don't include a walk-over victory for de Minaur back at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris. On paper, Sinner should dispose of de Minaur pretty easily though this will likely be the toughest match that Sinner has had against him given that de Minaur will have home court advantage and is ranked in the top ten. In their most recent meeting at the Davis Cup finals last year, Sinner defeated de Minaur 6-3, 6-4. In their lone meeting at a grand slam in the 4th round of the 2022 Australian Open, Sinner defeated de Minaur 7-6, 6-3, 6-4. 

If Sinner is able to advance past the quarterfinals, he'll either have No. 21 Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego in the semifinals. Sinner is 4-1 all-time against Shelton and 5-0 all-time against Sonego. The lone win that Shelton has over Sinner was in their first meeting at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Shanghai. Shelton won 2-6, 6-3, 7-6. Since then, it's been all Sinner, including a 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 win over Shelton in the 4th round at Wimbledon last summer. In their most recent meeting at the end of last season, Sinner got revenge in Shanghai with a 6-4, 7-6 win in the Round of 16. 

In short, Sinner's path to the final looks to be pretty smooth. He should defeat Alex de Minaur pretty handily and then whoever he faces between Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego should be a fairly speedy victory as well. 

As for who Sinner would see in the final, he'll either see No. 7 Novak Djokovic, who defeated No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinals or No. 2 Alexander Zverev, who defeated No. 12 Tommy Paul 7-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-1. 

Starting with a possible final against Zverev, Sinner is actually 2-4 in their six meetings. In their most recent meeting in the semifinals of the Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati last season, Sinner won in three tight sets: 7-6, 5-7, 7-6. In their two meetings at the US Open in 2023 and 2021, both in the 4th round, Zverev won both matches. In 2021 it was 6-4, 6-4, 7-6. In 2023 it was 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3. 

As for Novak Djokovic, the two of them have split their eight matches with four wins each. Sinner has won three matches in a row against Djokovic, most recently defeating him 7-6, 6-3 at the final of the ATP 1000 Masters event in Shanghai last year. In the semifinals of the Australian Open last year, Sinner defeated Djokovic 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3. 

When looking at this data, it's clear that Djokovic and Zverev are the biggest threats to Sinner defending his Australian Open title. Sinner's half of the draw looks pretty good, but it's the other half, awaiting in the final, that could give him trouble. 

At this point, it's looking pretty likely that Sinner will get to the final. The big question is will he defeat Djokovic/Zverev. Both guys have given him trouble and should feel confident in beating him. Ironically, I think given his current winning streak against him, Sinner might actually prefer to see Djokovic over Zverev. I know Djokovic is the GOAT and has won 10 Australian Opens while Zverev has never won a grand slam. But the head-to-head and recent matches suggest that it actually could be Zverev that gives Sinner more trouble. 

Either way, I still got my money on Sinner to win it all. He's number one in the world, is the defending champion, and so far has been playing fantastic tennis in this tournament. He's given me no reason to back off my prediction, but I am curious to see how much resistance he gets the rest of the way. 

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Can anyone stop Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open?

 

                                              (Credit: Mike Frey/USA TODAY Sports) 

My pick to win the Australian Open on the women's side at the beginning of the tournament was world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who is gunning for a three-peat. So far, that pick is looking solid as Sabalenka is into the quarterfinals without dropping a set. Most recently, Sabalenka dispatched of No. 14 Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-2 in the 4th round. 

Through four matches, Sabalenka is tied for second in the tournament with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in break points won (20). Number one is Emma Navarro with 21 breakpoints won. Oddly enough, Pavlyuchenkova is Sabalenka's next opponent in the quarterfinals. Given how well both players have done with break points, that should be an interesting match. A big reason why Sabalenka is doing so well with break points is her ability to win points off her opponents' first serve. She and Pavlyuchenkova are both tied at fourth place in the tournament with 77 first serve return points won, just two points behind Coco Gauff and Donna Vekic, who have won 79 first serve return points. 

Sabalenka is also serving well with 18 aces, which is top ten in the tournament, but it's really her return of serve that is giving opponents trouble. When you are able to win break points and first serve return points as well as Sabalenka, you're going to be tough to stop. That's clearly the key to her success. 

As far as whether or not anyone can stop Sabalenka, the two names that stand out as the biggest threats to her quest for a three-peat are Pavlyuchenkova and Gauff. Pavlyuchenkova is returning as well as Sabalenka is and doing a great job of capitalizing on break point opportunities and winning first serve return points. So that could be a tough matchup in the quarterfinals. And then Gauff just because of how well she's serving. Gauff is serving better than anyone Sabalenka has seen so far in this tournament and has a chance to give her some serious trouble on that end. Gauff is also returning well, so just all around she's a threat. 

If Sabalenka were to see Gauff, that would be in the semifinals. So two of the most difficult opponents are her quarterfinal and potential semifinal opponent. That adds to the challenge for sure. That said, I still expect Sabalenka to pull through and win her third straight Australian Open title. She's been the best at this event the last couple of seasons and knows what it takes to get it done. It'll be fun to see how the coming week unfolds for Sabalenka and the rest of the women's field. 

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10 things to look for at the 2025 Australian Open

 

                                             (Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports) 

The 2025 Australian Open is set to begin, which means it is time for me to write my 10 things to look for at the first grand slam of the year. If you want to check out any of the draws, click here. 

#1. Can Taylor Fritz go the distance? The top ranked American on the men's side is Taylor Fritz, who is ranked No. 4 in the world. He is coming off a run to the final of the US Open, where he lost to world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in straight sets. It's been a while since an American man won a grand slam (Andy Roddick at the 2003 US Open). Given how well he's playing, it feels like Fritz will break through to win a grand slam. The only question is when. Perhaps that breakthrough will happen at the Australian Open this year, though it should be noted that Fritz' best run at the Australian Open was last year to the quarterfinals. So, if he does win it all this year, it'll be quite a breakthrough. 

#2. Can Coco Gauff go the distance? If you are looking for an American on the women's side to put money on, it would be Coco Gauff, who is ranked No. 3 in the world. She's already won her first grand slam at the 2023 US Open and is certainly not done winning grand slams. Last year, she reached the semifinals of the Australian Open, so she's shown she can make some noise at this event. Given she's already won a hard court grand slam, one should like her chances to win the Australian Open. Perhaps this is the year she'll get it done. 

#3. Can Alex de Minaur overcome the hometown pressure? The top ranked Aussie on the men's side is Alex de Minaur, who comes in ranked No. 8 in the world. On paper, he should be a threat to at least make the quarterfinals and possibly semifinals. However, the furthest he's gone at the Australian Open is the 4th round. He's reached the quarterfinals at every other grand slam at least once in his career. If he doesn't at least reach the quarterfinals, one will have to wonder if the pressure of being an Aussie is weighing on him too much. 

#4. Can Naomi Osaka make some noise? Naomi Osaka made her return to the WTA tour last year after being out for the 2023 season, but didn't make any noise in the grand slams with three 2nd round exits and one 1st round exit. The 1st round exit happened to be at the Australian Open. That said, she is ranked 50th in the world and has won the Australian Open twice in 2019 and 2021, so she knows what it takes to win this event. If you're looking for a dark horse to win on the women's' side, Osaka would be an interesting pick. 

#5. Can Jannik Sinner defend his title? Jannik Sinner comes in ranked No. 1 in the world, winning both the Australian Open and US Open in 2024. Given that last season was truly a breakthrough season for him, this is the first year where he'll be entering grand slams as the favorite. Especially the ones where he'll be looking to defend his title. How he handles the pressure and expectations that come with that will be very interesting to see. 

#6. Can Aryna Sabalenka complete a three-peat? Aryna Sabalenka comes in ranked No. 1 in the world, having won the Australian Open back-to-back times in 2023 and 2024. This year, she'll be gunning for a three-peat, making her the heavy favorite on the women's side. Personally, I see no reason to pick against her. In addition to gunning for a three-peat at the Australian Open, she also is the defending US Open champion. She's proven to be hands down the best hard court player in the world. It'll be surprising if she doesn't defend her crown, but there's enough talent in the field that she'll have to play well to deliver. 

#7. Can Novak Djokovic bounce back to win another grand slam? Novak Djokovic didn't win a grand slam in 2024, raising the question of as to whether or not the 37 year old superstar still has it in him to win another one. He's the all-time leader in grand slam titles on the men's side with 24, so he certainly doesn't have anything to prove. That said, I'm sure he'd like to win at least one more grand slam before he retires. If there's a place for him to do it, the Australian Open would be the place as he's won it more than any other slam he's won: 10 times. Djokovic is ranked No. 7 in the world, so on paper he should still be a threat. Especially when you see how many times he's won this event. 

#8. Can Iga Świątek win her first Australian Open? Iga Świątek comes in ranked No. 2 in the world as probably the biggest favorite to win the women's singles title aside from Aryna Sabalenka. That said, Świątek has never won the Australian Open before, with her deepest run being to the semifinals in 2022. Świątek would love to add an Australian Open title to her collection and be one grand slam away from completing a career slam (Wimbledon). 

#9. Can Carlos Alcaraz complete the career slam? Even though Alexander Zverev is ranked No. 2 in the world, Carlos Alcaraz is probably the biggest threat to Sinner to win this title. Either him or Djokovic. Alcaraz is ranked No. 3 in the world and has won every grand slam except for one. The one grand slam he hasn't won is the Australian Open. The furthest he's gone at this even is the quarterfinals in 2024. At some point, I do think Alcaraz will complete the career slam. The only question is when. Perhaps 2025 will be the year that happens. 

#10. Can Zheng Qinwen win her first career grand slam? Ranked No. 5 in the world, Zheng Qinwen is one of the top rising talents in the world at just 22 years of age. She's been to one grand slam final in her career and that was at the Australian Open in 2024. It feels like she's going to win one at some point and if one had to pick a grand slam for her to win first, it would definitely be the Australian Open. I look forward to seeing how she performs. 

Prediction: On the men's side, I gotta roll with Jannik Sinner. He's the best in the world right now and the defending champion. Smart money is on him to defend his crown. On the women's side, I have to pick Aryna Sabalenka. She's the best in the world and is the two-time defending champion. Smart money is on her to defend her crown as well. 

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Alexandre Müller wins first title at Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open

 

                                             (Credit: hkmenstennisopen.com) 

Andrey Rublev was not able to defend his title at the Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open (中銀香港網球公開賽) as he went down in the Round of 16 to Fabian Marozsan by a final score of 5-7, 6-3, 3-6. In my previous blog post, I addressed whether or not Rublev could defend his title and what that might mean for his Australian Open chances. 

In short, Rublev has to be disappointed to not defend his title, especially to go out so early in the tournament. It'll be interesting to see if he's able to still make a deep run at the Australian Open or if he'll flame out of that event early as well. It's always hard to predict how guys will respond from a disappointing tournament. Especially at the grand slam level. 

As for the winner of the tournament, Alexandre Müller defeated Kei Nishikori in the final in three sets: 2-6, 6-1, 6-3. This is the first ATP title of Müller's career and as a result, he has achieved the highest ranking of his career at No. 56 in the world. 

Müller had an impressive tournament and showed a lot of resiliency, dropping the first set in each of his five matches played. His tightest match was in the Round of 16 against Miomir Kecmanovic, winning 5-7, 7-6, 7-6. Müller could have thrown in the towel, but instead he showed a lot of fight and determination to win the first title of his career. 

Of course, the big question now is how Müller will perform at the Australian Open. As a result of his ranking, he should get the best grand slam draw he's ever had. He's reached the 2nd round at every grand slam at least once in his career and last year, he reached the 2nd round in three of the four grand slams (Wimbledon, US Open, and French Open). Perhaps he's on the verge of a breakout season. 

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