10 things to look for at the 2025 French Open

 

 

The French Open at Roland Garros in Paris is set to begin this upcoming week, which means it is time for me to write my 10 things to look for. Click here for the draws in case you haven't gotten a chance to look at that and do feel free to scroll through the blog for some recent content that is French Open related. Okay, let's dive in! 

#1. Can Jannik Sinner build on his Italian Open success? While he came up short in the final to Carlos Alcaraz, world number one Jannik Sinner did reach his first career final at the Italian Open earlier this month. That should give Sinner a lot of confidence as he is set to begin his quest for a French Open title. If Sinner does win the French Open, I think we'll be able to look back on his performance in Rome as a catalyst. 

#2. Can Coco Gauff go the distance for the first time? Coco Gauff comes in as the number two seed in the women's draw and has been knocking on the door at Roland Garros. She reached the final back in 2022 and reached the semifinals last year. Earlier this month, she reached the final of the Italian Open, so she's continuing to be a major threat on the dirt. At some point, she'll win a French Open. It's just matter of her having that breakthrough tourney. Will this be the year? That's the question. 

#3. Can Carlos Alcaraz defend his title? Carlos Alcaraz comes in as the number two seed and defending champion on the men's side. He won the Monte-Carlo Masters and Italian Open, so he's coming into Roland Garros with a ton of momentum. He's the favorite to win the French Open, but this time he has to deal with the pressure that comes with being the defending champion. It'll be fun to see how he handles that extra pressure. 

#4. Can Iga Świątek overcome her seed to defend her crown? Iga Świątek comes in as the number five seed in the tournament while also having won three straight French Opens and four overall. If you look at her success at Roland Garros, Swiatek is the clear favorite. When you look at her seed and consider the fact that she lost in the 3rd round at the Italian Open, there is room for some doubt. Personally, I think she'll be motivated to prove that she's still the best clay court player in the world. The fact that she'll have a bit of a chip on her shoulder could make her even more dangerous. 

#5. Can Aryna Sabalenka win a grand slam away from the hard courts? Aryna Sabalenka comes in as the number one seed and top player in the world on the women's side. However, she's never won a French Open or Wimbledon. The furthest she's gone at the French Open is the semifinals in 2023. At some point, she needs to prove she can win a grand slam on other surfaces after being a dominant force on the hard courts. She did win the Madrid Open on clay earlier this year, so that should give her some confidence to have her breakthrough moment at Roland Garros. 

#6. Can Novak Djokovic pull a rabbit out of his hat? Even though he's the number six seed, Novak Djokovic had a rough clay season, losing in the second round in both Madrid and Monte-Carlo while skipping Rome. If Djokovic is able to reach the semifinals, that would be phenomenal given his recent results. I wouldn't bet on it, but at the same time, you can never count the Joker out. He's always a threat. 

#7. Can Jasmine Paolini build on her Italian Open title to win Roland Garros? Jasmine Paolini comes in as the number four seed, fresh off a title at the Italian Open. Paolini reached the final at Roland Garros last year and should be feeling confident in her ability to go the distance this year. She's got a lot of momentum and is playing excellent tennis at the moment. 

#8. Can Alexander Zverev make a serious run? Alexander Zverev comes in as the number three seed and reached the final last year. However, he went out in the second round at Monte-Carlo, the fourth round at Madrid, and the quarterfinals at the Italian Open. I guess he's making progress and picking up a bit of steam, so maybe he'll make some more noise than I think. It certainly will be interesting to see how he does after having a lukewarm clay season coming in. 

#9. Can Jessica Pegula make some noise? Jessica Pegula comes in as the number three seed, so on paper she should be a favorite to reach the semifinals. That being said, she only has one quarterfinal appearance at Roland Garros back in 2022 and she didn't play Roland Garros last year. I'd say odds are well above 50% that she exits in somewhere between the first and fourth round, especially after she had back-to-back third round exits in Madrid and Rome (Italian Open). But hey, maybe she'll surprise me. 

#10. What will happen to Casper Ruud? Casper Ruud comes in as the number seven seed with clay results kind of all over the map. He reached the semifinals at Roland Garros last year and then this year, he lost in the 3rd round at Monte-Carlo, lost in the quarterfinals in Rome, and then won it all in Madrid. I could buy any number of results from Ruud at this year's French Open. I'll be very interested to see where the chips fall for him. 

Prediction: On the men's side, I got Carlos Alcaraz going the distance. He's playing the best clay tennis of anyone and comes in with a lot of momentum having won the Italian Open and Monte-Carlo Masters. I fully expect him to defend his title. As for the women's side, even though she's had a down clay court season and is seeded where she is, I still gotta pick Iga Swiatek to pull through and defend her crown. She's been the best clay player in the women's game these past few years and deserves to be treated as the favorite given her overall body of work. 

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Which Italian Open champion is more likely to win at Roland Garros: Carlos Alcaraz or Jasmine Paolini?

 

                                             (Credit: sportsdigest.in) 

In Rome, (3) Carlos Alcaraz defeated (1) Jannik Sinner 7-6, 6-1 to win the men's singles title at the Italian Open while (6) Jasmine Paolini defeated (4) Coco Gauff 6-4, 6-2 to win the women's singles title. Recently, I did a blog post breaking down the success rate of Italian Open champions at the French Open at Roland Garros. Click here to check that out in case you missed it. 

With that blog post in mind, I'll now address which Italian Open champion is more likely to win at Roland Garros: Carlos Alcaraz or Jasmine Paolini. Both had fantastic performances in Rome while also having a tall task in front of them to follow up a title in Rome with a title in Paris. 

To start the debate, let me first state that Alcaraz and Paolini each had strong performances at Roland Garros last year. Alcaraz won his first French Open title defeating Alexander Zverev 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 while Paolini reached the final, losing to Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-1. Both players should be feeling confident going into Roland Garros with an Italian Open championship in hand while also having the performances they did a year ago. 

That said, Alcaraz is ranked higher than Paolini and he is the defending champion while Paolini came up a tad short last year. Not only did she come up short, but she did so against Iga Swiatek, who has won four French Open titles and three French Open titles in a row (2022-24). Swiatek is the top clay player in the women's game right now and you know she'll be hungry to bounce back from her 3rd round exit at Rome and defend her Roland Garros title. 

Another factor to consider is the Italian Open is Alcaraz' second 1000 masters title on clay this season while it's the only one for Paolini. At the Madrid Open, Paolini lost in the 3rd round while Alcaraz won the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. Alcaraz has shown more consistency during this clay season while Paolini had a less than stellar performance in Madrid. 

Overall, I think if you have to pick between the two, Carlos Alcaraz is more likely to win the French Open this year than Jasmine Paolini. He's had an even stronger clay court season and I think on paper is the favorite whereas I think despite her performance at Rome, Iga Swiatek is still the favorite on the women's side. This of course doesn't mean Paolini isn't a major threat to win it all in Paris. She'll be coming in with a lot of momentum and confidence and then hey, while she didn't win it all last year, she did reach the final. Outside of Swiatek, Paolini is arguably your favorite. It's just that on the men's side, Alcaraz is the favorite. It certainly will be interesting to see how both do at the French Open and whether or not they'll be able to back up their titles in Rome with a title in Paris. 

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Will meeting Pope Leo XIV be a blessing to Jannik Sinner?

 

                                             (Credit: Vatican Media) 

Earlier this week, the same day that I was in Rome touring the Vatican with my family, world number one Jannik Sinner met with newly elected Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican. The Pope apparently is a big tennis fan and given that Sinner is an Italian playing in the Italian Open this week, it made sense for the two of them to meet. 

Sinner is currently still alive in the Italian Open, playing in the semifinals on Friday against No. 12 Tommy Paul. If he wins the Italian Open, one will have to wonder if meeting the Pope gave Sinner a bit of an emotional boost. Of course, Sinner came in as the favorite anyways. Both due to being number one and also being the hometown favorite. In truth, winning the Italian Open may not be much of an indicator of the Holy Father blessing his tennis skills. 

However, winning the Italian Open and French Open back-to-back is no easy task and Sinner is still in search of his first title at both events. The furthest he's gone at the Italian Open is the semifinals (this year) and the furthest he's gone at the French Open is the semifinals (2024). If Sinner were to win both this year for the first time, especially after meeting the Pope, one will have to wonder if something divine is at work. 

Regardless of how the Italian Open and French Open go for Sinner, it's pretty cool he got to meet the Pope. Meeting the Pope just goes to show how big of a deal he is as the only Italian to be ranked number one in the world in tennis. I guess if you have that accomplishment under your belt, it'll be pretty easy to get a VIP trip to the Vatican. Even if your last name is "Sinner." 

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How often does success in Rome lead to success in Paris?

                                               (Credit: internazionalibnlditalia.com) 

This week is the Internazionali BNL D'Italia a.k.a. Italian Open in Rome, Italy. Played on clay, it's the final ATP 1000 & WTA 1000 event before the French Open at Roland Garros in Paris, France. To check out the tournament website, click here. 

Since I am currently traveling in Italy, I thought it would be fun to take a look at how often success in Rome leads to success in Paris. I.e. How often does winning the Italian Open translate to winning the French Open? To keep things somewhat current/modern, I'll focus on the years 1990 to the present day. 

Starting with the men's side, the following players have won both the Italian Open and French Open in the same season since 1990: Jim Courier (1992), Thomas Muster (1995), Rafael Nadal (2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018, & 2019). 

As for men who at least reached the French Open final after at least reaching the Italian Open final since 1990, we can add the following to the list already posted: Jim Courier (1993 won Italian; lost French), Gustavo Kuerton (2000 & 2001 lost Italian; won French), Roger Federer (2006 lost Italian; lost French), Novak Djokovic (2012 lost Italian; lost French), Novak Djokovic (2014, 2015, & 2020 won Italian; lost French), Novak Djokovic (2016 & 2021 lost Italian; won French), Andy Murray (2016 won Italian; lost French), and Alexander Zverev (2024 won Italian; lost French). 

Switching gears to the women's side, the following players have won both the Italian Open and French Open in the same season since 1990: Monica Seles (1990), Serena Williams (2002 & 2013), Maria Sharapova (2012), and Iga Swiatek (2022 & 2024). 

As for women who at least reached the French Open final after at least reaching the Italian Open since 1990, we can add the following to the list already posted: Monica Seles (1991& 1992 lost Italian; won French), Kim Clijsters (2003 won Italian; lost French), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2009 lost Italian; won French), Serena Williams (2016 won Italian; lost French), Simona Halep (2017 lost Italian; lost French), and Simona Halep (2018 lost Italian; won French). 

One other crazy stat I wanted to point out is Conchita Martinez won the Italian Open from 1993-96. Not once did she reach the French Open final during those years. Her lone trip to the final at Roland Garros wouldn't come until 2000 where she lost to Mary Pierce 6-2, 7-5. Ironically, the only grand slam Martinez won was Wimbledon in 1994. Given Martinez got ranked as high as No. 2 in the world during that four year stretch, you would think she would have won at least French Open, let alone reach a French Open final. 

Looking at all of this big-picture, there's a decent amount of seasons where players have won both the Italian Open and French Open in the same year since 1990: 10 on the men's side and six on the women's side. However, the number of players who have done it is much lower since Nadal did it eight times alone. Only three men have done it and only four women have done it. However, there is a solid amount who have at least reached the final in both. 

I think it's safe to say that while it is far from a guarantee that winning the Italian Open will lead to winning the French Open in the same season, it's still a good thing to have a strong performance in Rome. If you perform well there, you'll come to Paris with a lot of momentum and confidence. It'll certainly be interesting to see how this week goes in Rome and whether or not this year's champions will be able to add their name to the list of players who have won both the Italian Open and French Open in the same season. 

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Carlos Alcaraz looking like the favorite to win Roland Garros in 2025

 

                                              (Credit: Susan Mullane/Imagn Images) 

The next grand slam on the docket is the French Open at Roland Garros. On the men's side, world number three Carlos Alcaraz is looking like an early favorite to defend his title. So far, he is 24-5 on the season and has won two titles, one of which is the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo, which is played on the clay in Monte-Carlo, Monaco. Alcaraz defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 really taking control in the final two sets. In his next event after Monte-Carlo, Alcaraz lost in the final to Holger Rune 6-7, 2-6. That was also on the clay at the ATP 500 event Barcelona Open. 

As of late, Alcaraz is looking great on the clay and building a lot of momentum as he looks ahead to the French Open. While we still have a month to go before the tournament starts, Alcaraz definitely is looking strong. He has won one one of the top clay events going into the French Open and also had really strong performance in Barcelona. 

The big thing for Alcaraz right now is to keep this up. The ATP 1000 events in Madrid and Rome area also key clay court events that precede the French Open. If he can win one of those two events, that would be huge as he continues to build momentum. It'll be interesting to see how he does and whether or not he still enters the French Open with the same kind of momentum that he currently seems to have. 

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Jakub Mensik wins first career title at Miami Open

 

                                             (Credit: Geoff Burke) 

At this year's Miami Open, 19 year old Jakub Mensik out of the Czech Republic defeated his idol Novak Djokovic 7-6, 7-6 in the final to win his first career ATP Tour title. As a result, Mensik has now climbed to No. 23 in the world. Going into the tournament, Mensik was ranked No. 54 in the world, making him the lowest ranked player to ever win the Miami Open. 

MATCH STATS: Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic-March 30th, Miami Open 

When looking at the stats from the match, what really stands out is the fact that Mensik was able to perform slightly better on his serve than Djokovic. Mensik had a serve rating of 302 while Djokovic had serve rating of 300. Both guys won 77% of their first serves though Djokovic (76%) had a higher percentage than Mensik (67%). However, Mensik (54%) won more of his second serves than Djokovic (50%) while also out-acing Djokovic 14-7. In a match that goes to a tiebreaker in each set, whichever guy does better on their serve will have an edge. 

Mensik's best grand slam performances have been at the Australian Open (2025) and the US Open (2023 & 2024) in which he reached the 3rd round. He's obviously starting to find his footing and get more comfortable playing on the biggest stages the sport has to offer. To win his first career title at an ATP 1000 event is big time. It's a kind of amazing he doesn't have an ATP 500 or ATP 250 title under his belt, but if he's going to pick a place to win his first title, the Miami Open isn't a bad place to do it at all. 

What will be interesting to see is whether or not Mensik is able to build on this title and make more noise at the grand slams later this year. He's never played the French Open, so it's hard to know how well he'll play there, though Czech players are often solid on the clay. And then at Wimbledon he has a 1st round exit in 2024. If he is going to break through to reach the 4th round or quarterfinals at a grand slam, the US Open and Australian Open seem like the most likely places for that to happen given they are played on hard court. That said, he seemed to kinda come out of nowhere to win the Miami Open, so who knows what he'll do on the clay or grass later this year. 

Regardless, I think it's safe to say that Jakub Mensik has put himself on the map with his Miami Open title. He's just 19 years old and every year is getting better. It'll be fun to see where his career goes from here and whether or not this is the first of many big titles that he wins. 

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Iga Świątek comes up short at Indian Wells & Miami Open

                                             (Credit: Geoff Burke/Imagn Images) 

World No. 2 Iga Świątek has had a disappointing couple of outings at Indian Wells and the Miami Open these past couple of weeks. At Indian Wells, she fell to world No. 6 Mirra Andreeva in the semifinals 6-7, 6-1, 3-6 and then at the Miami Open this week, she fell to Alexandra Eala in the quarterfinals 2-6, 5-7. Eala is a 19 year old from the Philippines who came into the Miami Open as a wild card ranked 140th in the world. That loss in particular really stung for Swiatek as she came in as the heavy favorite. 

During her match against Eala, Swiatek seemed to not be getting along with her coach Wim Fissette as she was shouting at him. That revealed some cracks in their relationship and indicates that they need to iron out some things at a minimum. The issue from what has been reported as been Fissette talking to her too much during the matches. Perhaps he should pull back and just let Swiatek do her thing. Given that coaches can now talk to their players a lot more freely during matches, finding that right balance is something that every player and coach is going to have to figure out. 

While the results aren't what Swiatek wanted, it's not like she had a horrible two weeks. Losing in the quarterfinals and semifinals at back-to-back WTA 1000 tournaments isn't bad. The bigger issue is the way she lost, especially to Eala. If she wants to win her fifth Roland Garros title this year and get back in the winner's circle at a grand slam, she's going to have to get these dynamics with Fissette figured out. It'll be interesting to see how things go and whether or not they get things sorted out. 

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Alexander Zverev blows an opportunity at Indian Wells

 

                                             (Credit: Jay Calderon/The Desert Sun) 

This week, Alexander Zverev had a disappointing outing at Indian Wells, losing to Tallon Griekspoor in the 2nd round by a final score of 4-6, 7-6, 7-6. Zverev came in as the No. 2 player in the world and the No. 1 seed in the tournament due to world No.1 Jannik Sinner serving a suspension for doping. Zverev was my pick to win the tournament and so to see him flame out in the 2nd round is pretty disappointing. Granted, Griekspoor is ranked No. 43 in the world and made a nice run to the quarterfinals, but still. If you are Zverev you need to have a strong showing at Indian Wells and at least make the semifinals. 

In truth, this tournament was Zverev's to lose and he blew a massive opportunity to win his first Indian Wells title and 8th ATP 1000 title overall. Had he won this tournament, that would have really helped him as he looks to close the gap with Sinner in his quest to being No. 1 in the world. And further, Zverev is still in search of his first career grand slam title. A title at Indian Wells would have done a lot for his confidence in that department as well and would have been seen as a legit stepping stone towards that goal. 

Looking at his match against Griekspoor specifically, what really hurt Zverev was going 5/14 on break point opportunities. He had plenty of changes to break Griekspoor's serve and failed to do so. Credit to Griekspoor for fending off those breakpoints, but at the same time Zverev had so many chances to win this match and advance. That has to haunt Zverev more than anything. 

Fortunately for Zverev, the Miami Open starts next week, right after Indian Wells. That will give him a chance to redeem himself at another ATP 1000 event. How the Miami Open goes for Zverev will be really telling and a strong test of his mental resolve. I look forward to seeing how he performs. 

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10 things to look for at 2025 BNP Paribas Open | Indian Wells

 

                                             (Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images) 

The 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California is underway. I would like to provide my list of 10 things to look for at this year's event, which is often dubbed the 5th grand slam. To check out the draws, click here. 

#1. Can Taylor Fritz bounce back from his disappointing Australian Open? Taylor Fritz comes in as the No. 3 seed and No. 4 player in the world on the men's side. He did not have a particularly strong Australian Open as he went down in the 3rd round, meaning he needs to bounce back and not let that result linger. The good news for Fritz is he's won Indian Wells before back in 2022 and being from Southern California, he basically has home court advantage. If there's an event for Fritz to bounce back at, this is the one. How he does could be very telling for how the rest of his 2025 season will go. 

#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka win her first Indian Wells title and reestablish hard court dominance? Aryna Sabalenka comes in ranked No. 1 in the world and the top hard court player in the women's game. In this year's Australian Open, Sabalenka fell to Madison Keys in the final, unable to win her third straight Australian Open title and third straight hard court grand slam. Sabalenka seems fired up to win this event and remind the WTA tour that she's the best on the hard court surface. She also hasn't won this event before, reaching the final in 2023 where she lost to Elena Rybakina. So that's probably a big source of her motivation for winning. It'll be fun to see if she can go the distance. 

#3. Can Novak Djokovic prove he's still got it? I think there are some questions about whether or not Novak Djokovic still has what it takes to win more grand slams. Personally, I think he does, but it would be huge for him to win at Indian Wells just to give himself some momentum after losing in the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. Djokovic has won Indian Wells five times, so he knows what it takes to win it. But, he hasn't won since 2016. It would be pretty cool if he won a sixth Indian Wells title. That would break the tie he has with Roger Federer, who also won five Indian Wells titles (tied for most all-time). 

#4. Can Madison Keys build on her Australian Open success? Madison Keys won her first grand slam at the Australian Open earlier this year, knocking off Aryna Sabalenka. It'll be interesting to see how Keys does at Indian Wells. She comes in as the No. 5 seed and thus should be in the mix to win the tournament. That said, she has never won this tournament nor has she reached the final. If she were to win this, that would really be sending a message to the rest of the WTA. 

#5. Can Ben Shelton make a run? Ben Shelton is coming into this tournament with some momentum having reached the semifinals at the Australian Open earlier this year. That was his second grand slam semifinal appearance (2023 US Open). He's the No. 11 seed in the tournament and shown an ability to get hot on the hard courts. If you want to talk a dark horse in this tournament to at least make a semifinal run, Shelton is absolutely a guy who could challenge. I look forward to seeing how this tournament goes for him. 

#6. Can Coco Gauff win her first Indian Wells title? Coco Gauff comes in as the No. 3 seed and thus a favorite to at least reach the semifinals. She lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year, which was a bit disappointing for her since she's trying to win multiple grand slams after winning her first grand slam at the 2023 US Open. She's won a couple of WTA 1000 titles, but an Indian Wells title still eludes her. She did reach the semifinals last year, so she's certainly knocking on the door. Perhaps this will be the year she breaks through. 

#7. Will Alexander Zverev back up his seed? Alexander Zverev is the No. 2 ranked player in the world, but with Jannik Sinner serving a suspension for doping, Zverev is the No. 1 seed in the tournament. The question is will it matter? The furthest Zverev has gone at Indian Wells is the quarterfinals last year. Perhaps this will be the year that finally changes. If he could win this tournament, that would be a huge boost to his confidence heading into Miami where he reached the final back in 2022. 

#8. Can Paula Badosa win her second Indian Wells title? Paula Badosa comes in as the No. 11 seed, fresh off a run to the semifinals of the Australian Open. She also won this event back in 2021, so she knows what it takes to win it all. If you want to pick a dark horse on the women's side, Paula Badosa would be a pretty good pick. Don't be surprised if she threatens to win it all this year. 

#9. Will we get another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? Carlos Alcaraz comes in as the No. 2 seed, ranked No. 3 in the world while Daniil Medvedev comes in as the No. 5 seed, ranked No. 6 in the world. The last two years, they've met in the final with Alcaraz getting the better of Medvedev. A big question coming into this year's tournament is will we see another Alcaraz/Medvedev final? They're both on opposite sides of the draw, so it's totally possible. If we do, will Alcaraz win his third straight Indian Wells title or will Medvedev break through? If not, who will knock these guys off? 

#10. Can Iga Świątek defend her title? Iga Świątek comes in as the No. 2 seed on the women's side, ranked No. 2 in the world. She's the defending champion at this event and has won it twice, so she knows how to get it done. If she does reach the final, odds are good Aryna Sabalenka will be there. All I can say is what a fun match that would be! If Świątek is to defend her title, she's certainly going to have to earn it. This won't be an easy draw. It never is at Indian Wells. 

Prediction: I'm going to say Alexander Zverev breaks through to win his first Indian Wells title on the men's side. If he doesn't win it this year, he probably never will. As for the women's side, I'm gonna roll with Coco Gauff. I expect her to play well and feed off the energy that will come with being the top ranked American. I look forward to seeing how the tournament goes and who ends up winning it all. 

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10 things to take away from the 2025 Australian Open

 

                                             (Credit: Mark Avelino/Anadolu via Getty Images) 

With the 2025 Australian Open now in the rearview mirror, I would like to share my 10 things to take away from the two weeks that were Down Under. 

#1. Jannik Sinner has an iron grip on the world number one: By winning his third grand slam title overall and three straight hard court grand slam titles, Jannik Sinner is without a doubt the top men's player in the world. He'll miss a bit of time (through May 4th) due to a WADA ban for testing positive for Clostebol, but he'll be back in time for the French Open and the remaining grand slams. The big thing for him is to figure out how to win grand slams on clay and grass, but given that hard courts are where most of the action is at, he should remain the top player in the world for the foreseeable future so long as he stays healthy and doesn't get banned again for a future doping offense.

#2. Madison Keys has proven she can win a grand slam: By winning her first grand slam title, Madison Keys has proven she can win a grand slam. Her only other grand slam final appearance was back in 2017 at the US Open, so it's pretty amazing she found a way to win a grand slam all these years later. Of course, now the question is whether or not she can break through to win a few more grand slams, but regardless, she can now say she is a grand slam champion.

#3. Alexander Zverev is knocking on the door: Alexander Zverev reached his third career grand slam final and first Australian Open final, losing to Jannik Sinner in straight sets. At 27 years of age (turning 28 next month), Zverev can certainly take inspiration from Madison Keys. While I'm not sure if Zverev will ever be a multiple grand slam winner, I do think at some point he'll break through and win one. Especially since one of his grand slam finals came at Roland Garros in 2024. His ability to play on the clay is definitely a boost to his chances. 

#4. Aryna Sabalenka is beatable on the hard court: Aryna Sabalenka came in as the heavy favorite on the women's side having won back-to-back Australian Open titles as well as the 2024 US Open title. She's the best hard court player in the world and yet she wasn't able to defeat Madison Keys in the final, who won 6-3, 2-6, 7-5. This tournament showed the rest of the WTA tour that Sabalenka is beatable on the hard courts. It'll be interesting to see how she bounces back in the upcoming hard court swing. 

#5. Ben Shelton continues to make strides: 22 year old Ben Shelton had a nice run to the semifinals of the Australian Open before going down to Jannik Sinner in straight sets. Shelton has now reached two grand slam semifinals (2023 US Open) and appears poised to soon reach his first grand slam final. It'll be fun to see how the rest of the season goes for Shelton and what kind of impact he makes on the upcoming hard court swing as well as the US Open later this year. 

#6. Iga Swiatek needs to figure out the hard courts: Even though she's won a hard court grand slam at the 2022 US Open, it's clear that Iga Swiatek still needs to crack the code on the hard courts. She lost in the semifinals to Madison Keys in her second trip to the Australian Open semifinals (2022). She also has reached only three semifinals at hard court grand slams in total, which obviously includes her US Open title. This year's Australian Open was another reminder that while she's of course competitive on hard courts, she still has work to do if she wants to start winning multiple slams on the surface. 

#7. The end could be coming soon for Novak Djokovic: The last of the "Big Four" that's still standing, Novak Djokovic fell to Alexander Zverev in the semifinals 6-7, ret. due to a muscle tear. He hasn't won a grand slam title since the 2023 US Open and with the Australian Open being his best event (10 titles), if he's coming up short in that event, it's fair to wonder if the end is near for Djokovic. He's 37 years old and Father Time catches up with everyone. That said, he's still ranked in the top 10 at No. 7 in the world and probably has another grand slam title or two in him. Still, this year's Australian Open was a reminder that Djokovic's best days are behind him and that it won't be too long before he retires. 

#8. Paul Badosa finally reaches a grand slam semifinal: Paula Badosa finally reached her first career grand slam semifinal, losing to Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets. At 27 years of age, it's possible Badosa's best tennis is still in front of her. This year will tell us a lot about about whether or not the best is yet to come or if this run to the semifinals is where she's gonna peak. 

#9. Taylor Fritz needs to bounce back: Ranked No. 4 in the world, Taylor Fritz is the highest ranked American, who came into the Australian Open with a lot of hope after his run to the US Open final. Unfortunately, he went down in the 3rd round to Gaël Monfils. If Fritz wants to maintain his top ten ranking going forward, he's going to have to get back to work after such an early exit at the Australian Open. On paper, he's the best hope the United States has to break their men's grand slam drought, but after how things went Down Under, one can't help but have their doubts. He needs to put those doubts to rest fast. 

#10. Coco Gauff needs to figure out the Australian Open: Coco Gauff fell in the quarterfinals, which was not what she was hoping to have happen as she came in with championship hopes. Last year's run to the semifinals is the furthest she's gone at the Australian Open. It's clear that she has to figure out how to go deeper in this tournament. It'll be interesting to see if she'll be able to crack that code. Especially since her lone grand slam title is on the hard courts at the US Open in 2023. 

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Jannik Sinner defends Australian Open title

 

                                               (Credit: Getty Images) 

Jannik Sinner came into the Australian Open as the No. 1 ranked player in the world, seeking to defend his title. While world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka was unable to defend her title, losing to Madison Keys in the final, Sinner was able to get the job done, defeating No. 2 Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3, 7-6, 6-3. By defending his Australian Open crown, the 23 year old Sinner now has won three grand slam titles and has an iron grip on the world No. 1 ranking. 

During his two weeks Down Under, Sinner only dropped two sets. Sinner dropped the opening set against wild card Tristan Schoolkate in the 2nd round before eventually winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 and then he dropped the second set against No. 13 Holger Rune in the 4th round, winning that match 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2. The rest were all straight set victories, which is pretty dominating. 

What Sinner did a great job of was winning his service points. He won 81% of his first serve points, which ranked 7th in the tournament and 4th among players who played in 4+ matches. As for his second serve, he won 62% of those points, which ranked 7th in the tournament and first among players who played in 3+ matches. The interesting thing about that is Sinner wasn't getting a lot of aces. He ranked 10th in the tournament in total aces with 59, but when you consider he played in seven matches, his aces per match (8.42) was relatively low compared to other guys in the tournament. But he made up for it with great ball placement and putting returners on their back heels even if they were able to get a racket on the ball. 

The other thing Sinner did a great job of was winning tiebreakers. He was 4-0 in tiebreakers during the tournament, which speaks to his mental toughness and resolve. And then just in general, while he did drop a couple of sets, Sinner was never really pushed in this tournament. From start to finish, he was the top player in the field and to his credit he finished the job. 

Looking ahead to the rest of the season, it'll be interesting to see how Sinner does. He's figured out how to win grand slams on the hard court and now needs to figure out how to win on the grass at Wimbledon and the clay at Roland Garros.  Perhaps this will be the year he breaks through on at least one of those surfaces. 

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Madison Keys is finally a grand slam champion after winning Australian Open

 

                                             (Credit: Getty Images) 

After years of coming up short in grand slams, Madison Keys finally broke through to win her first grand slam title at the 2025 Australian Open. Keys came into the tournament as the No. 19 seed, defeating No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 in the final. Sabalenka was gunning for a third straight Australian Open title and a fourth grand slam title, making her the heavy favorite coming in. In addition to defeating the number one player in the world, Keys also defeated No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals by a final score of 5-7, 6-1, 7-6. 

Keys became the first woman to defeat the top two players in the world en route to an Australian Open title since Serena Williams defeated No. 2 Amelie Mauresmo in the quarterfinals and No. 1 Lindsay Davenport in the final back in 2005. The last woman to do it at a grand slam was Svetlana Kuznetsova at the French Open in 2009. Kuznetsova defeated No. 2 Serena Williams in the quarterfinals and No. 1 Dinara Safina in the final. 

What makes Keys' title all the more impressive is that in five of her seven matches, she had to play a third set. Only her first round victory over Ann Li (6-4, 7-5) and third round victory over No. 10 Danielle Collins (6-4, 6-4) were straight set victories. It could have easily ended in the second round for Keys in her match against qualifier Elena-Gabriela Ruse, as she narrowly won 7-6, 2-6, 7-5. Many times did Keys bend during her two weeks in Australia, but she never broke. She always found ways to come through and pull out the win. And in tennis, that's all that matters. It doesn't matter if your win is pretty, ugly, easy, or tough. What matters is if you win and Keys' run in Australia is a reminder of that. 

A major reason why Keys was able to win the tournament was her service game and ability to win break points. Her 34 aces led the tournament while her 29 break points ranked 4th. When she really needed to hold her serve or break her opponents' serve, she was able to deliver the goods. 

Another factor that I think helped Keys was the rule change allowing players to talk to their coaches during the match and actually be present courtside. Her conversations with her coach/husband Bjorn Fratangelo seemed to really help calm her down and keep her focused. Tennis is very much a mental game and allowing coaches to talk to their players is something that is going to help a lot of players mentally. Keys certainly benefited from that. 

After years of wondering whether or not Keys could win a grand slam, we now have our answer. The question now is how many can she win? She's ranked No. 7 in the world for the first time since October 2016 and should have a good deal of confidence going forward. Turning 30 in February, Keys has plenty of time to win some more grand slams. It'll be fascinating to see if she can add to her total. 

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Can anyone stop Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open?

 

                                             (Credit: Mike Frey/USA TODAY Sports) 

On the men's side, my pick to win it all at the start of the Australian Open was world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. That pick is looking good so far as Sinner has advanced into the quarterfinals where he will face No. 8 Alex de Minaur of Australia. In my previous blog post, I wrote about whether or not anyone on the women's side can stop Aryna Sabalenka (click here to read that) and now I am asking the same question about Sinner. Can anyone on the men's side stop him? 

Sinner has had a pretty smooth run to the quarterfinals, dropping only two sets. He dropped the opening set in his 2nd round match against wild card Tristan Schoolkate (4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3) and also dropped the second set in his most recent win over No. 13 Holger Rune (6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2). That honestly isn't much resistance. 

Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, Sinner is 9-0 all-time against de Minaur if you don't include a walk-over victory for de Minaur back at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris. On paper, Sinner should dispose of de Minaur pretty easily though this will likely be the toughest match that Sinner has had against him given that de Minaur will have home court advantage and is ranked in the top ten. In their most recent meeting at the Davis Cup finals last year, Sinner defeated de Minaur 6-3, 6-4. In their lone meeting at a grand slam in the 4th round of the 2022 Australian Open, Sinner defeated de Minaur 7-6, 6-3, 6-4. 

If Sinner is able to advance past the quarterfinals, he'll either have No. 21 Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego in the semifinals. Sinner is 4-1 all-time against Shelton and 5-0 all-time against Sonego. The lone win that Shelton has over Sinner was in their first meeting at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Shanghai. Shelton won 2-6, 6-3, 7-6. Since then, it's been all Sinner, including a 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 win over Shelton in the 4th round at Wimbledon last summer. In their most recent meeting at the end of last season, Sinner got revenge in Shanghai with a 6-4, 7-6 win in the Round of 16. 

In short, Sinner's path to the final looks to be pretty smooth. He should defeat Alex de Minaur pretty handily and then whoever he faces between Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego should be a fairly speedy victory as well. 

As for who Sinner would see in the final, he'll either see No. 7 Novak Djokovic, who defeated No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinals or No. 2 Alexander Zverev, who defeated No. 12 Tommy Paul 7-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-1. 

Starting with a possible final against Zverev, Sinner is actually 2-4 in their six meetings. In their most recent meeting in the semifinals of the Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati last season, Sinner won in three tight sets: 7-6, 5-7, 7-6. In their two meetings at the US Open in 2023 and 2021, both in the 4th round, Zverev won both matches. In 2021 it was 6-4, 6-4, 7-6. In 2023 it was 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3. 

As for Novak Djokovic, the two of them have split their eight matches with four wins each. Sinner has won three matches in a row against Djokovic, most recently defeating him 7-6, 6-3 at the final of the ATP 1000 Masters event in Shanghai last year. In the semifinals of the Australian Open last year, Sinner defeated Djokovic 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3. 

When looking at this data, it's clear that Djokovic and Zverev are the biggest threats to Sinner defending his Australian Open title. Sinner's half of the draw looks pretty good, but it's the other half, awaiting in the final, that could give him trouble. 

At this point, it's looking pretty likely that Sinner will get to the final. The big question is will he defeat Djokovic/Zverev. Both guys have given him trouble and should feel confident in beating him. Ironically, I think given his current winning streak against him, Sinner might actually prefer to see Djokovic over Zverev. I know Djokovic is the GOAT and has won 10 Australian Opens while Zverev has never won a grand slam. But the head-to-head and recent matches suggest that it actually could be Zverev that gives Sinner more trouble. 

Either way, I still got my money on Sinner to win it all. He's number one in the world, is the defending champion, and so far has been playing fantastic tennis in this tournament. He's given me no reason to back off my prediction, but I am curious to see how much resistance he gets the rest of the way. 

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Can anyone stop Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open?

 

                                              (Credit: Mike Frey/USA TODAY Sports) 

My pick to win the Australian Open on the women's side at the beginning of the tournament was world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who is gunning for a three-peat. So far, that pick is looking solid as Sabalenka is into the quarterfinals without dropping a set. Most recently, Sabalenka dispatched of No. 14 Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-2 in the 4th round. 

Through four matches, Sabalenka is tied for second in the tournament with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in break points won (20). Number one is Emma Navarro with 21 breakpoints won. Oddly enough, Pavlyuchenkova is Sabalenka's next opponent in the quarterfinals. Given how well both players have done with break points, that should be an interesting match. A big reason why Sabalenka is doing so well with break points is her ability to win points off her opponents' first serve. She and Pavlyuchenkova are both tied at fourth place in the tournament with 77 first serve return points won, just two points behind Coco Gauff and Donna Vekic, who have won 79 first serve return points. 

Sabalenka is also serving well with 18 aces, which is top ten in the tournament, but it's really her return of serve that is giving opponents trouble. When you are able to win break points and first serve return points as well as Sabalenka, you're going to be tough to stop. That's clearly the key to her success. 

As far as whether or not anyone can stop Sabalenka, the two names that stand out as the biggest threats to her quest for a three-peat are Pavlyuchenkova and Gauff. Pavlyuchenkova is returning as well as Sabalenka is and doing a great job of capitalizing on break point opportunities and winning first serve return points. So that could be a tough matchup in the quarterfinals. And then Gauff just because of how well she's serving. Gauff is serving better than anyone Sabalenka has seen so far in this tournament and has a chance to give her some serious trouble on that end. Gauff is also returning well, so just all around she's a threat. 

If Sabalenka were to see Gauff, that would be in the semifinals. So two of the most difficult opponents are her quarterfinal and potential semifinal opponent. That adds to the challenge for sure. That said, I still expect Sabalenka to pull through and win her third straight Australian Open title. She's been the best at this event the last couple of seasons and knows what it takes to get it done. It'll be fun to see how the coming week unfolds for Sabalenka and the rest of the women's field. 

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10 things to look for at the 2025 Australian Open

 

                                             (Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports) 

The 2025 Australian Open is set to begin, which means it is time for me to write my 10 things to look for at the first grand slam of the year. If you want to check out any of the draws, click here. 

#1. Can Taylor Fritz go the distance? The top ranked American on the men's side is Taylor Fritz, who is ranked No. 4 in the world. He is coming off a run to the final of the US Open, where he lost to world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in straight sets. It's been a while since an American man won a grand slam (Andy Roddick at the 2003 US Open). Given how well he's playing, it feels like Fritz will break through to win a grand slam. The only question is when. Perhaps that breakthrough will happen at the Australian Open this year, though it should be noted that Fritz' best run at the Australian Open was last year to the quarterfinals. So, if he does win it all this year, it'll be quite a breakthrough. 

#2. Can Coco Gauff go the distance? If you are looking for an American on the women's side to put money on, it would be Coco Gauff, who is ranked No. 3 in the world. She's already won her first grand slam at the 2023 US Open and is certainly not done winning grand slams. Last year, she reached the semifinals of the Australian Open, so she's shown she can make some noise at this event. Given she's already won a hard court grand slam, one should like her chances to win the Australian Open. Perhaps this is the year she'll get it done. 

#3. Can Alex de Minaur overcome the hometown pressure? The top ranked Aussie on the men's side is Alex de Minaur, who comes in ranked No. 8 in the world. On paper, he should be a threat to at least make the quarterfinals and possibly semifinals. However, the furthest he's gone at the Australian Open is the 4th round. He's reached the quarterfinals at every other grand slam at least once in his career. If he doesn't at least reach the quarterfinals, one will have to wonder if the pressure of being an Aussie is weighing on him too much. 

#4. Can Naomi Osaka make some noise? Naomi Osaka made her return to the WTA tour last year after being out for the 2023 season, but didn't make any noise in the grand slams with three 2nd round exits and one 1st round exit. The 1st round exit happened to be at the Australian Open. That said, she is ranked 50th in the world and has won the Australian Open twice in 2019 and 2021, so she knows what it takes to win this event. If you're looking for a dark horse to win on the women's' side, Osaka would be an interesting pick. 

#5. Can Jannik Sinner defend his title? Jannik Sinner comes in ranked No. 1 in the world, winning both the Australian Open and US Open in 2024. Given that last season was truly a breakthrough season for him, this is the first year where he'll be entering grand slams as the favorite. Especially the ones where he'll be looking to defend his title. How he handles the pressure and expectations that come with that will be very interesting to see. 

#6. Can Aryna Sabalenka complete a three-peat? Aryna Sabalenka comes in ranked No. 1 in the world, having won the Australian Open back-to-back times in 2023 and 2024. This year, she'll be gunning for a three-peat, making her the heavy favorite on the women's side. Personally, I see no reason to pick against her. In addition to gunning for a three-peat at the Australian Open, she also is the defending US Open champion. She's proven to be hands down the best hard court player in the world. It'll be surprising if she doesn't defend her crown, but there's enough talent in the field that she'll have to play well to deliver. 

#7. Can Novak Djokovic bounce back to win another grand slam? Novak Djokovic didn't win a grand slam in 2024, raising the question of as to whether or not the 37 year old superstar still has it in him to win another one. He's the all-time leader in grand slam titles on the men's side with 24, so he certainly doesn't have anything to prove. That said, I'm sure he'd like to win at least one more grand slam before he retires. If there's a place for him to do it, the Australian Open would be the place as he's won it more than any other slam he's won: 10 times. Djokovic is ranked No. 7 in the world, so on paper he should still be a threat. Especially when you see how many times he's won this event. 

#8. Can Iga Świątek win her first Australian Open? Iga Świątek comes in ranked No. 2 in the world as probably the biggest favorite to win the women's singles title aside from Aryna Sabalenka. That said, Świątek has never won the Australian Open before, with her deepest run being to the semifinals in 2022. Świątek would love to add an Australian Open title to her collection and be one grand slam away from completing a career slam (Wimbledon). 

#9. Can Carlos Alcaraz complete the career slam? Even though Alexander Zverev is ranked No. 2 in the world, Carlos Alcaraz is probably the biggest threat to Sinner to win this title. Either him or Djokovic. Alcaraz is ranked No. 3 in the world and has won every grand slam except for one. The one grand slam he hasn't won is the Australian Open. The furthest he's gone at this even is the quarterfinals in 2024. At some point, I do think Alcaraz will complete the career slam. The only question is when. Perhaps 2025 will be the year that happens. 

#10. Can Zheng Qinwen win her first career grand slam? Ranked No. 5 in the world, Zheng Qinwen is one of the top rising talents in the world at just 22 years of age. She's been to one grand slam final in her career and that was at the Australian Open in 2024. It feels like she's going to win one at some point and if one had to pick a grand slam for her to win first, it would definitely be the Australian Open. I look forward to seeing how she performs. 

Prediction: On the men's side, I gotta roll with Jannik Sinner. He's the best in the world right now and the defending champion. Smart money is on him to defend his crown. On the women's side, I have to pick Aryna Sabalenka. She's the best in the world and is the two-time defending champion. Smart money is on her to defend her crown as well. 

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Alexandre Müller wins first title at Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open

 

                                             (Credit: hkmenstennisopen.com) 

Andrey Rublev was not able to defend his title at the Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open (中銀香港網球公開賽) as he went down in the Round of 16 to Fabian Marozsan by a final score of 5-7, 6-3, 3-6. In my previous blog post, I addressed whether or not Rublev could defend his title and what that might mean for his Australian Open chances. 

In short, Rublev has to be disappointed to not defend his title, especially to go out so early in the tournament. It'll be interesting to see if he's able to still make a deep run at the Australian Open or if he'll flame out of that event early as well. It's always hard to predict how guys will respond from a disappointing tournament. Especially at the grand slam level. 

As for the winner of the tournament, Alexandre Müller defeated Kei Nishikori in the final in three sets: 2-6, 6-1, 6-3. This is the first ATP title of Müller's career and as a result, he has achieved the highest ranking of his career at No. 56 in the world. 

Müller had an impressive tournament and showed a lot of resiliency, dropping the first set in each of his five matches played. His tightest match was in the Round of 16 against Miomir Kecmanovic, winning 5-7, 7-6, 7-6. Müller could have thrown in the towel, but instead he showed a lot of fight and determination to win the first title of his career. 

Of course, the big question now is how Müller will perform at the Australian Open. As a result of his ranking, he should get the best grand slam draw he's ever had. He's reached the 2nd round at every grand slam at least once in his career and last year, he reached the 2nd round in three of the four grand slams (Wimbledon, US Open, and French Open). Perhaps he's on the verge of a breakout season. 

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