With the quarterfinals at Wimbledon set to begin, the top seeds in both the gentlemen's and ladies' singles still remain: Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka. Neither player has won a grand slam away from the hard courts and yet they both have an opportunity to change that as they seek their first title on the grass courts of Wimbledon. Which one is more likely to go the distance? Below are my thoughts.
Starting with Sinner, he defeated Luca Nardi in the first round, Aleksandar Vukic in the second round, Pedro Martinez in the third round, and (19) Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round. He got a bit lucky with the Dimitrov match as he dropped the first two sets 3-6, 5-7. It was tied 2-2 in the third set before Dimitrov had to retire from the match due to an injured right pectoral muscle. Sinner is dealing with an elbow injury, so it's not like he's at full strength entering the quarterfinals.
As for Sabalenka, she is yet to drop a set with wins over Carson Branstine in the first round, Marie Bouzkova in the second round, Emma Raducanu in the third round, and (24) Elise Mertens in the fourth round. She is currently dominating the competition and is playing with a lot of confidence as she enters the quarterfinals.
Just looking at how the first four rounds have gone for both players, I would say Sabalenka seems more poised to win Wimbledon this year than Sinner. She hasn't dropped a set and at least so far hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Sinner in contrast was lucky to get past Dimitrov as he was actually trailing in the match and on top of that, he is dealing with an elbow injury.
In addition to playing better so far, Sabalenka also has a more favorable draw in front of her. The highest remaining seed for Sabalenka to face is (7) Mirra Andreeva, who is still in search of her first grand slam title and is in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for the first time of her career. The player who on paper would be the biggest threat is five-time grand slam champion (8) Iga Swiatek. Swiatek however has never gone beyond the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, so it's hard to see her winning it all. On top of that, Andreeva and Swiatek are on the opposite side of the draw from Sabalenka, meaning that at most, Sabalenka has to only beat one of them and it would be in the final. No guarantee they get that far.
Regarding Sinner's draw, (2) Carlos Alcaraz is still alive and he's the two-time defending champion. That alone makes this a tougher draw for Sinner. Not to mention the fact that seven-time Wimbledon champion (6) Novak Djokovic is the projected semifinal match for Sinner if he can get past (10) Ben Shelton.
One other thing I should quickly note is in my Wimbledon preview, I actually picked Sabalenka to win it all on the ladies' side whereas I picked Alcaraz to win on the gentlemen's side. I see no reason to make a change to either of those predictions at this time. Alcaraz had a first round scare, getting pushed to a fifth set by Fabio Fognini, but since then he's been pretty dominant in his other three matches.
When adding it all up, while both Sinner and Sabalenka are ranked number one in the world and are the top seeds in their respective draws, it's clear that Sabalenka has a much clearer path to winning her first Wimbledon title. The field is much more favorable for her (number two seed Coco Gauff losing in the first round helped a ton) and she's simply playing better tennis at the moment. It'll be fun to see how the final three rounds go!
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