The winners of the singles titles at the Cincinnati Open this past week were world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz and world No. 2 Iga Swiatek. Alcaraz defeated world No. 1 Jannik Sinner 5-0, ret. in the men's final while Swiataek defeated world No. 8 Jasmine Paolini 7-5, 6-4 in the women's final. As a quick aside, Sinner retired due to an illness making his US Open status up-in-the-air. We'll just have to see where things land on that front.
Going back to the winners of the tournament, which one is more likely to go the distance in New York and win the US Open? First of all, they both have won the US Open once in their careers. Oddly enough, they both won it in 2022. Alcaraz defeated Casper Ruud 6-4, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 in the final while Swiatek defeated Ons Jabeur 6-2, 7-6. Given that fact, it's hard to really pick which one is more likely to win it all this year.
If you look a little bit deeper, Alcaraz has the following results at the US Open from 2021-2024: quarterfinals, championship, semifinals, and 2nd round. As for Swiatek, she has the following results from 2019-2024: 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round, championship, 4th round, and quarterfinals. Looking at that data, it's also had to really pick which one is more likely to go the distance.
As for Australian Open success, neither player has won that tournament, so there isn't much in the way to really pick out there in terms of figuring out who is more likely to win the US Open. I guess I should mention Swiatek reached the semifinals at the Australian Open twice in 2022 and 2025 while the furthest Alcaraz has gone at the Australian Open is the quarterfinals twice in 2024 and 2025. So I guess you could maybe give a slight edge to Swiatek since she's done better at the Australian Open.
That said, those that know tennis know that even though they are both hard court grand slams the US Open and Australian Open are different tournaments and success at one doesn't always equal success at the other. Novak Djokovic is a prime example of that. He has 10 Australian Open titles and four US Open titles.
When adding all this up, if one has to pick which one is more likely to win the US Open this year between Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek, one is going to have to go on feel and gut instinct. They both have great chances to go the distance and I wouldn't be surprised if they both win it this year. Winning the Cincinnati Open gives them a lot of momentum heading into the US Open.
However, if I had to pick one, I would lean Carlos Alcaraz. Jannik Sinner's status being called into question gives Alcaraz an advantage as Sinner is the defending champion. If Sinner can't go or if he flames out early due to not being at full strength, Alcaraz will be the favorite. That's not to say there won't still be be tough competition for him, but Sinner is by far and away the biggest threat to Alcaraz right now. If Sinner is not able to go or if he's hobbled, that is a huge advantage for Alcaraz.
As for Swiatek, it feels like she has a tougher road in front of her. Aryna Sabalenka being the defending champion and world No. 1 is the odds on favorite to win it all and then top ten Americans Coco Gauff (No. 3), Jessica Pegula (No. 4), Madison Keys (No. 6), and Amanda Anisimova (No. 9) are all serious contenders and will have the New York crowd behind them. Swiatek simply has a tougher road in front of her even though she too is ranked No. 2 in the world.
Ultimately, time will tell how this all plays out. Perhaps both Alcaraz and Swiatek will win. Perhaps only one of them will or maybe neither one will. The US Open I feel is the most unpredictable grand slam out there due to it being at the end of the year and players being more fatigued coupled with the hard court being a more grueling surface. It should be fun to see how it all plays out and who will end up lifting the trophy in New York when the two weeks are all over.
ATPGuy.com on Facebook: @ATPGuyNation
ATPGuy.com on X (Twitter): @atp_guy
ATPGuy.com on Bluesky: atpguydotcom.bsky.social
Ben Parker on Facebook, IG, Threads, X (Twitter), YouTube, & Bluesky: @slamdunk406
No comments:
Post a Comment