Which 20+ seed has the best chance to make noise in the second week of the US Open?

 

                                             Felix Auger-Aliassime. Credit: USOpen.org 

With the 4th round of the US Open about to get started, several players seeded in the 20s or higher are still in the mix: 

On the men's side, (23) Alexander Bublik is set to face (1) Jannik Sinner after a Saturday night 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1 victory over (14) Tommy Paul; (25) Felix Auger-Aliassime is set to face (15) Andrey Rublev after stunning (3) Alexander Zverev 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4; unseeded Leandro Riedi ranked (No. 435 in the world) is set to face (8) Alex de Minaur after defeating Kamil Majchrzak 5-3, ret; Jaume Munar is set to face (10) Lorenzo Musetti after defeating Zizou Bergs 6-1, 6-4, 6-4; (21) Tomas Machac is set to face (4) Taylor Fritz after defeating Ugo Blanchett 7-5, 6-3, 6-1; Jan-Lennard Struff is set to face (7) Novak Djokovic after defeating (17) Frances Tiafoe 6-4, 6-3, 7-6; Adrian Mannarino is set to face (20) Jiri Lehecka after defeating Raphael Collignon 6-4, 6-4, 6-4; Lehecka will face Mannarino after defeating (6) Ben Shelton 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, ret; and Arthur Rinderknech will face (2) Carlos Alcaraz after defeating Benjamin Bonzi 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2. 

As for the women's side, Cristina Bucsa is set to face (1) Aryna Sabalenka after defeating (19) Elise Mertens 3-6, 7-5, 6-3; Marketa Vondrousova is set to face (9) Elena Rybakina after knocking off (7) Jasmine Paolini 7-6, 6-1; Ann Li is set to face (4) Jessica Pegula after defeating Priscilla Hon 7-5, 6-3; Barbora Krejcikova is set to face Taylor Townsend after defeating (10) Emma Navarro 4-6, 6-4, 6-4; Townsend upset (5) Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-2; (27) Marta Kostyuk will face (11) Karolina Muchova after defeating Diane Parry 3-6, 6-4, 6-2; and (23) Naomi Osaka will face (3) Coco Gauff after defeating (15) Daria Kasatkina 6-0, 4-6, 6-3. 

Just to condense it down for you a bit, that's (23) Alexander Bublik, Jaume Munar, (25) Felix Auger-Aliassime, Leandro Riedi, Jan-Lennard Struff, Adrian Mannarino, (21) Tomas Machac, (20) Jiri Lehecka, and Arthur Rinderknech left on the men's side; Cristina Bucsa, Marketa Vondrousova, Ann Li, Barbora Krejcikova, Taylor Townsend, (27) Marta Kostyuk, and (23) Naomi Osaka on the women's side. Nine on the men's side and seven on the women's side, making for 16 players in total. That's a pretty good amount of players left in the draw who are seeded 20+, which means there's a real opportunity to make a run in the second week. 

While I don't want to rule anyone out, the two players who are standing out to me as the most dangerous are Auger-Aliassime and Osaka: 

Starting with Auger-Aliassime, he has been ranked as high as No. 6 in the world (November 7th, 2022) and did reach the semifinals of the US Open back in 2021, so he has made a deep run before. After his win over Zverev, Auger-Aliassime should be feeling really confident heading into his match against Rublev. He knows he can make deep runs in  New York. 

Osaka has not only made deep runs at the US Open, she's won it twice in 2018 and 2020. She also won the Australian Open twice in 2019 and 2021. She knows she can win this tournament and has found a lot of success at hard court grand slams in general. Gauff has won the US Open as well (2023), so Osaka is going to have her work cut out for her. Still, Osaka has to be feeling confident to be back in the 4th round at the US Open for the first time since her 2020 title. 

One other thing that's standing out to me is the upcoming matches of Mannarino vs. (20) Lehecka and Krejcikova vs. Townsend. That guarantees at least one 20+ seeded player on each side of the draw will be in the quarterfinals. Townsend being an American will have the crowd behind her, which gives her an edge. Neither Mannarino nor Lehecka will have that going for them, so it's harder to see how that one will go. Regardless, all four of those players have to sense a real opportunity to reach the quarterfinals and then who knows what happens from there. 

Overall, this is shaping up to be an exciting second week at the US Open. A good chunk of the big name players are still in the mix and at the same time, you have a lot of underdogs who are still alive as well. Regardless of how this all shakes out, there are certain to be a lot of captivating storylines to follow. 

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10 things to look for at the 2025 US Open

 

The US Open actually began on Sunday, so I'm a bit late to getting this up. Below are my 10 things to look for at the 2025 US Open in New York. Click here to check out the draws in case you haven't yet seen them. Ok, let's dive in! 

#1. How healthy is Jannik Sinner? No. 1 Jannik Sinner pulled out of the final in the Cincinnati Open due to an illness, handing the title to No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. A lot of questions have swirled around about how healthy Sinner is and whether or not he'd even compete. Well, he's in the main draw and will give it a go. But will he stay healthy the entire tournament or could he be in for an early exit? The first couple rounds will tell us a lot. 

#2. Can Aryna Sabalenka defend her title? No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka comes in as the defending champion with many picking her to defend her title. However, she did lose to Madison Keys in the Australian Open final earlier this year, unable to defend her title there. Sabalenka will be eager to not have that happen again and this time defend her crown. If she does, she'll be sending a message that she truly is the top hard court player in the game. 

#3. Does Novak Djokovic have one more slam in him? No. 7 Novak Djokovic has won 24 grand slams and is gunning for his 25th. He cruised to a 6-1, 7-6, 6-2 victory over Learner Tien in the first round, so he's off to a good start. The key for Djokovic will be to make sure he takes care of business in straight sets through the first four rounds. The less tennis he has to play, especially on the hard courts, the better. Djokovic has to make sure in these early rounds he doesn't get pushed. Otherwise, fatigue will certainly catch up with him in the later rounds. 

#4. Will Coco Gauff's coaching change pay off? No. 3 Coco Gauff fired her catch Matthew Daly just days before the US Open in a move that sent a bit of a shockwave through the tennis world. It's a bold move to make that only will look smart if she goes all the way. If she doesn't, it will look like a desperate move that should have at least waited until the end of the season. It certainly adds more pressure on Gauff to perform well at this tournament, but then again, maybe this will help her out mentally. Time will tell. 

#5. Can Carlos Alcaraz build on his win at Cincinnati? After winning the Cincinnati Open, Carlos Alcaraz comes into the US Open with a lot of momentum. But will it ultimately matter? If Sinner is not able to play to his full strength, one has to like Alcaraz's chances of winning it all. The only reason to pause is he hasn't won the US Open since 2022. It's a bit of a dry spell in New York that Alcaraz would love to end. 

#6. Can Iga Swiatek build on her win at Cincinnati? No. 2 Iga Swiatek defeated No. 7 Jasmine Paolini to win the Cincinnati Open. Just like Alcaraz, Swiatek is eager to build on the momentum she has coming into the tournament. Also like Alcaraz, she hasn't won the US Open since 2022. Will this be the year she wins it all again in New York? It should be interesting to see. 

#7. Can Alexander Zverev contend? No. 3 Alexander Zverev is still seeking his first grand slam title. He only reached the US Open final once in his career (2020), but he did reach the Australian Open final earlier this year. If Sinner is unable to go deep in the tournament, Zverev in theory should be the guy to take advantage as the number three guy in the world. But can he actually do it? That's the question. 

#8. Can Madison Keys threaten? After winning the Australian Open, No. 6 Madison Keys will look to wrap up the 2025 season how she started it: winning a hard court grand slam. Keys should have a lot more confidence in her US Open chances after the way she performed Down Under, but as a word of caution, she has only reached one US Open final in her career and that was back in 2017. If Keys does go the distance this year, that would be quite a story. 

#9. Can Taylor Fritz go the distance? If there's an American man to threaten to win it all this year, it would be No. 4 Taylor Fritz. Fritz reached the final last year and really fed off the American crowd. While not the same level of pressure that was on Andy Murray to win Wimbledon as a Brit, it has been 22 years since an American man won a grand slam (Andy Roddick, 2003 US Open). Fritz is the best chance the United States has to end that drought. It would be cool if he did. 

#10. Can Jessica Pegula go the distance? The number four seed on the women's side is also an American in Jessica Pegula. She reached the final last year just like Fritz did and is also in search of her first grand slam. It'll be interesting to see how she does and whether or not she can once again feed off the energy from the New York crowd. 

Prediction: I'm gonna pick both Cincinnati winners to win the US Open. I got Carlos Alcaraz winning on the men's side and Iga Swiatek winning on the women's side. They're both playing great tennis right now and seem eager to win a second US Open title. 

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Which Cincinnati Open champion is more likely to win the US Open: Carlos Alcaraz or Iga Swiatek?

 

                                             (Credit: Getty Images) 

The winners of the singles titles at the Cincinnati Open this past week were world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz and world No. 2 Iga Swiatek. Alcaraz defeated world No. 1 Jannik Sinner 5-0, ret. in the men's final while Swiataek defeated world No. 8 Jasmine Paolini 7-5, 6-4 in the women's final. As a quick aside, Sinner retired due to an illness making his US Open status up-in-the-air. We'll just have to see where things land on that front. 

Going back to the winners of the tournament, which one is more likely to go the distance in New York and win the US Open? First of all, they both have won the US Open once in their careers. Oddly enough, they both won it in 2022. Alcaraz defeated Casper Ruud 6-4, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 in the final while Swiatek defeated Ons Jabeur 6-2, 7-6. Given that fact, it's hard to really pick which one is more likely to win it all this year.

If you look a little bit deeper, Alcaraz has the following results at the US Open from 2021-2024: quarterfinals, championship, semifinals, and 2nd round. As for Swiatek, she has the following results from 2019-2024: 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round, championship, 4th round, and quarterfinals. Looking at that data, it's also had to really pick which one is more likely to go the distance. 

As for Australian Open success, neither player has won that tournament, so there isn't much in the way to really pick out there in terms of figuring out who is more likely to win the US Open. I guess I should mention Swiatek reached the semifinals at the Australian Open twice in 2022 and 2025 while the furthest Alcaraz has gone at the Australian Open is the quarterfinals twice in 2024 and 2025. So I guess you could maybe give a slight edge to Swiatek since she's done better at the Australian Open. 

That said, those that know tennis know that even though they are both hard court grand slams the US Open and Australian Open are different tournaments and success at one doesn't always equal success at the other. Novak Djokovic is a prime example of that. He has 10 Australian Open titles and four US Open titles. 

When adding all this up, if one has to pick which one is more likely to win the US Open this year between Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek, one is going to have to go on feel and gut instinct. They both have great chances to go the distance and I wouldn't be surprised if they both win it this year. Winning the Cincinnati Open gives them a lot of momentum heading into the US Open. 

However, if I had to pick one, I would lean Carlos Alcaraz. Jannik Sinner's status being called into question gives Alcaraz an advantage as Sinner is the defending champion. If Sinner can't go or if he flames out early due to not being at full strength, Alcaraz will be the favorite. That's not to say there won't still be be tough competition for him, but Sinner is by far and away the biggest threat to Alcaraz right now. If Sinner is not able to go or if he's hobbled, that is a huge advantage for Alcaraz. 

As for Swiatek, it feels like she has a tougher road in front of her. Aryna Sabalenka being the defending champion and world No. 1 is the odds on favorite to win it all and then top ten Americans Coco Gauff (No. 3), Jessica Pegula (No. 4), Madison Keys (No. 6), and Amanda Anisimova (No. 9) are all serious contenders and will have the New York crowd behind them. Swiatek simply has a tougher road in front of her even though she too is ranked No. 2 in the world. 

Ultimately, time will tell how this all plays out. Perhaps both Alcaraz and Swiatek will win. Perhaps only one of them will or maybe neither one will. The US Open I feel is the most unpredictable grand slam out there due to it being at the end of the year and players being more fatigued coupled with the hard court being a more grueling surface. It should be fun to see how it all plays out and who will end up lifting the trophy in New York when the two weeks are all over. 

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