Which Italian Open champion is more likely to win at Roland Garros: Carlos Alcaraz or Jasmine Paolini?

 

                                             (Credit: sportsdigest.in) 

In Rome, (3) Carlos Alcaraz defeated (1) Jannik Sinner 7-6, 6-1 to win the men's singles title at the Italian Open while (6) Jasmine Paolini defeated (4) Coco Gauff 6-4, 6-2 to win the women's singles title. Recently, I did a blog post breaking down the success rate of Italian Open champions at the French Open at Roland Garros. Click here to check that out in case you missed it. 

With that blog post in mind, I'll now address which Italian Open champion is more likely to win at Roland Garros: Carlos Alcaraz or Jasmine Paolini. Both had fantastic performances in Rome while also having a tall task in front of them to follow up a title in Rome with a title in Paris. 

To start the debate, let me first state that Alcaraz and Paolini each had strong performances at Roland Garros last year. Alcaraz won his first French Open title defeating Alexander Zverev 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 while Paolini reached the final, losing to Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-1. Both players should be feeling confident going into Roland Garros with an Italian Open championship in hand while also having the performances they did a year ago. 

That said, Alcaraz is ranked higher than Paolini and he is the defending champion while Paolini came up a tad short last year. Not only did she come up short, but she did so against Iga Swiatek, who has won four French Open titles and three French Open titles in a row (2022-24). Swiatek is the top clay player in the women's game right now and you know she'll be hungry to bounce back from her 3rd round exit at Rome and defend her Roland Garros title. 

Another factor to consider is the Italian Open is Alcaraz' second 1000 masters title on clay this season while it's the only one for Paolini. At the Madrid Open, Paolini lost in the 3rd round while Alcaraz won the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. Alcaraz has shown more consistency during this clay season while Paolini had a less than stellar performance in Madrid. 

Overall, I think if you have to pick between the two, Carlos Alcaraz is more likely to win the French Open this year than Jasmine Paolini. He's had an even stronger clay court season and I think on paper is the favorite whereas I think despite her performance at Rome, Iga Swiatek is still the favorite on the women's side. This of course doesn't mean Paolini isn't a major threat to win it all in Paris. She'll be coming in with a lot of momentum and confidence and then hey, while she didn't win it all last year, she did reach the final. Outside of Swiatek, Paolini is arguably your favorite. It's just that on the men's side, Alcaraz is the favorite. It certainly will be interesting to see how both do at the French Open and whether or not they'll be able to back up their titles in Rome with a title in Paris. 

ATPGuy.com on Facebook: @ATPGuyNation 

ATPGuy.com on X (Twitter): @atp_guy 

ATPGuy.com on Blue Sky: @atpguydotcom.bsky.social

Ben Parker on Facebook, IG, Threads, X (Twitter), YouTube, & Blue Sky: @slamdunk406