On the men's side, my pick to win it all at the start of the Australian Open was world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. That pick is looking good so far as Sinner has advanced into the quarterfinals where he will face No. 8 Alex de Minaur of Australia. In my previous blog post, I wrote about whether or not anyone on the women's side can stop Aryna Sabalenka (click here to read that) and now I am asking the same question about Sinner. Can anyone on the men's side stop him?
Sinner has had a pretty smooth run to the quarterfinals, dropping only two sets. He dropped the opening set in his 2nd round match against wild card Tristan Schoolkate (4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3) and also dropped the second set in his most recent win over No. 13 Holger Rune (6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2). That honestly isn't much resistance.
Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, Sinner is 9-0 all-time against de Minaur if you don't include a walk-over victory for de Minaur back at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris. On paper, Sinner should dispose of de Minaur pretty easily though this will likely be the toughest match that Sinner has had against him given that de Minaur will have home court advantage and is ranked in the top ten. In their most recent meeting at the Davis Cup finals last year, Sinner defeated de Minaur 6-3, 6-4. In their lone meeting at a grand slam in the 4th round of the 2022 Australian Open, Sinner defeated de Minaur 7-6, 6-3, 6-4.
If Sinner is able to advance past the quarterfinals, he'll either have No. 21 Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego in the semifinals. Sinner is 4-1 all-time against Shelton and 5-0 all-time against Sonego. The lone win that Shelton has over Sinner was in their first meeting at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Shanghai. Shelton won 2-6, 6-3, 7-6. Since then, it's been all Sinner, including a 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 win over Shelton in the 4th round at Wimbledon last summer. In their most recent meeting at the end of last season, Sinner got revenge in Shanghai with a 6-4, 7-6 win in the Round of 16.
In short, Sinner's path to the final looks to be pretty smooth. He should defeat Alex de Minaur pretty handily and then whoever he faces between Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego should be a fairly speedy victory as well.
As for who Sinner would see in the final, he'll either see No. 7 Novak Djokovic, who defeated No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinals or No. 2 Alexander Zverev, who defeated No. 12 Tommy Paul 7-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-1.
Starting with a possible final against Zverev, Sinner is actually 2-4 in their six meetings. In their most recent meeting in the semifinals of the Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati last season, Sinner won in three tight sets: 7-6, 5-7, 7-6. In their two meetings at the US Open in 2023 and 2021, both in the 4th round, Zverev won both matches. In 2021 it was 6-4, 6-4, 7-6. In 2023 it was 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3.
As for Novak Djokovic, the two of them have split their eight matches with four wins each. Sinner has won three matches in a row against Djokovic, most recently defeating him 7-6, 6-3 at the final of the ATP 1000 Masters event in Shanghai last year. In the semifinals of the Australian Open last year, Sinner defeated Djokovic 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3.
When looking at this data, it's clear that Djokovic and Zverev are the biggest threats to Sinner defending his Australian Open title. Sinner's half of the draw looks pretty good, but it's the other half, awaiting in the final, that could give him trouble.
At this point, it's looking pretty likely that Sinner will get to the final. The big question is will he defeat Djokovic/Zverev. Both guys have given him trouble and should feel confident in beating him. Ironically, I think given his current winning streak against him, Sinner might actually prefer to see Djokovic over Zverev. I know Djokovic is the GOAT and has won 10 Australian Opens while Zverev has never won a grand slam. But the head-to-head and recent matches suggest that it actually could be Zverev that gives Sinner more trouble.
Either way, I still got my money on Sinner to win it all. He's number one in the world, is the defending champion, and so far has been playing fantastic tennis in this tournament. He's given me no reason to back off my prediction, but I am curious to see how much resistance he gets the rest of the way.
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