Unlike the Women's French Open final, the Men's French Open final features the two players everybody thought would reach the final: Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. It's no shock that after two weeks of intense tennis on the red clay of Roland Garros, both of these men are still playing for the title. Where people do disagree is when it comes to picking who is going to win the title. A lot of experts think Novak Djokovic will dethrone Rafael Nadal of his French Open crown, and many others including myself think Rafael Nadal will once again reign on the clay as French Open champion.
If I can be perfectly candid, I don't understand why anybody would pick Novak Djokovic to win this title with Rafael Nadal still in it. I say this knowing that many tennis analysts who know the game far better than myself are picking Novak Djokovic to win this title and in the process have him beating Rafael Nadal. Why might they think this? I can only guess that it has something to do with the fact that Djokovic beat him on clay earlier this year in Rome, that Djokovic is hungry for his first French Open title, and that Rafael Nadal can't possibly keep beating a player like Novak Djokovic to win French Open titles. My problem with this line of thinking is that it simply doesn't add up from a logical point of view. It only adds up from the point of view of somebody who doesn't want Rafael Nadal to win or somebody who wants to see Novak Djokovic complete a career slam. The bottom line is that the argument for why Rafael Nadal will win the French Open is much stronger.
Before we even analyze Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in their head-to-head matches, I will first lay out some important facts that support my conclusion that Rafael Nadal will win the French Open for the 9th time in 10 years. The first thing I would like to point out is that Novak Djokovic hasn't won a Grand Slam title since the 2013 Australian Open. For a player who recently was expected to challenge Roger Federer's record for most Grand Slam titles, this is quite a drought for Novak Djokovic. More notably, he hasn't won a Grand Slam title outside of the Australian Open since the 2011 US Open. Novak Djokovic practically owns the Australian Open with 4 of his 6 Grand Slam titles coming from the Australian Open but as for Wimbledon and the US Open, he has only won those titles once. As for the French Open, this is just his second trip to the French Open final. It is hard to think that a player who hasn't won a Grand Slam title in the amount of time that he has will end his dry spell on his least favorite surface against the most dominant force we have ever seen play on clay. With Nadal's dominance on clay being unlike anything we have seen from any player on any surface, is it really reasonable to pick Novak Djokovic to come up big and dethrone Nadal to win the French Open?
Secondly, Rafael Nadal hasn't faced any serious opposition all tournament. He's only dropped one set all tournament and that was to David Ferrer in the Quarterfinals. After dropping the first set to Ferrer, Nadal came roaring back, crushing Ferrer 6-4, 6-0, 6-1 in the final 3 sets. As for Andy Murray in the Semifinals, Nadal was so dominant that Murray didn't even need to bother showing up. Nadal destroyed him by the final score of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1. Nadal has plenty of gas in the tank and is coming in really strong and confident. Djokovic will be lucky to get one set off Nadal. Picking him to take 3 sets off Nadal to win the match almost seems preposterous.
As for the head-to-head aspect of this matchup, Nadal owns Djokovic on the red clay at Roland Garros. Sure, Djokovic has beaten Nadal on clay at other venues including Rome earlier this year, but at Roland Garros, Nadal is 5-0 against Novak Djokovic. It is true that Nadal narrowly got away with a 9-7 win in the 5th set the last time they faced at Roland Garros, but he still prevailed, and that is all that matters.
The bottom line is Rafael Nadal should be heavily favored to win this title for the 9th time in 10 years. I don't want to sound like there isn't good reason to watch this match because if anybody can beat Nadal on clay at Roland Garros, it's Novak Djokovic. We've seen him press Nadal at Roland Garros and he is such a great champion himself that you never want to count him out. But what is certain is that if Djokovic is going to defeat Nadal in Sunday's French Open final, he will have to play the match of his life.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @atp_guy
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