Last week, Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the championship match of the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia by a final score of 6-3, 7-6 (7-0). It was an impressive week for Rybakina, who came in as the No. 6 seed in the eight player tournament. En route to beating Sabalenka, who was No. 1, Rybakina defeated No. 7 Madison Keys' alternate Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 6-4, No. 4 Amanda Anisimova 6-3, 6-1, and No. 2 Iga Swiatek 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 in the group stage. In the semifinals, she defeated No. 5 Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
For Rybakina, this was a great week. Qualifying for the WTA Finals in and of itself is a big achievement, but to follow that up with a championship is simply fantastic. This is Rybakina's first WTA Finals title, which means she's closing out the season with more momentum than she's had in the past. The question is can she capitalize on it and build on this momentum enough to win a grand slam in 2026?
Back in 2022, Rybakina won Wimbledon, but hasn't been able to win a grand slam title since then. Her last trip to a grand slam final was the 2023 Australian Open and in 2025, she reached the 4th round at three of the four grand slams while reaching the 3rd round at Wimbledon. She was very consistent at the grand slams this year, but wasn't able to truly threaten.
Since 2010, only five players have won the WTA Finals and gone on to win a grand slam the next year: Kim Clijsters won it in 2010 and went on to win the Australian Open; Serena Williams won it in 2012 and went on to win the French Open and US Open; Williams won it again in 2014 and went on to win the Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon; Caroline Wozniacki won it in 2017 and went on the win the Australian Open; and then Ashleigh Barty won it in 2019 before going on to win Wimbledon. After not having the 2020 WTA Finals due to COVID, the previous four WTA Finals winners have not gone on to win a grand slam the next year. That means less than half of the WTA Finals winners go on to win a grand slam. At least in recent history.
Of course, Rybakina has a chance to buck that trend. She's won a grand slam before and after defeating the group of players she did in the WTA Finals, she should enter 2026 with a lot of confidence. Given this was a hard court event, the Australian Open might be her best chance. She'll enter that grand slam fresh off this WTA Finals title, so that's when momentum in theory should be strongest. At a minimum, I think she needs to make a run to at least the semifinals. Otherwise, she'll have to rebuild a lot of momentum heading into the French Open. It should be interesting to see how she does!
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